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Brexit: Now What? Part II

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Thank you for that.

Our PM (elected by the few a the behest of the poorly informed) is increasingly seeming less like a cunning stateswoman and more like a lady who just really, really wanted to be PM regardless of what the job actually entailed.

Where Boris Johnson appears to have campaigned for Leave expecting to lose and grab the top job, May increasingly seems to have been a leave supporter who campaigned for remain in the expectation they would win and her 'loyalty' would create an opening when Cameron was forced out in the ensuing Tory civil war. The backstabbing among the pro-leave contenders left her well placed for the job and ambition won out over sense.
 
I think it illustrated how much the leave campaign used fear of the hordes to get a leave vote. I don't find it surprising that in areas with comparatively little immigration where the most fearful of the hordes. It has always been the case that when people live with the hordes day in day out they realise there is little to nothing to fear. It is the unknown that is the most fearful.

Yet more evidence that the threat of immigrants is manufactured by the media.
 
Leave campaigners have always had a CLEAR plan - to get back control of borders and lawmaking but to retain trade and services access at current levels, and to stop paying EU contributions.

The problem is that while it may be a clear plan, the EU insists (and I believe them) that it's not a REALISTIC plan.

Now vested interests that want us to remain are deliberately confusing 'clear plan' with 'what will be the outcome of the negotiations'. We cannot possibly know that in advance of the negotiations, so the vested interests are really just trying to place an insurmountable hurdle to prevent any progress. It's a pathetic tactic and I'm confident that it will fail.
 
just for some respite...

Anyway
Chin up
Have a cup
Ov tea

Natter round
A cup ov tea
All with be
Awright

A cup ov tea
A *********** cup
Ov tea
 
Leave campaigners have always had a CLEAR plan - to get back control of borders and lawmaking but to retain trade and services access at current levels, and to stop paying EU contributions.

The problem is that while it may be a clear plan, the EU insists (and I believe them) that it's not a REALISTIC plan.

Now vested interests that want us to remain are deliberately confusing 'clear plan' with 'what will be the outcome of the negotiations'. We cannot possibly know that in advance of the negotiations, so the vested interests are really just trying to place an insurmountable hurdle to prevent any progress. It's a pathetic tactic and I'm confident that it will fail.
I have a clear plan as well. Come out of the supermarket with a bag of shopping and not pay anything for it. But the vested interests that manage the supermarket inform me that this isn't realistic, and they are erecting hurdles in my path. It's pathetic.
 
Leave campaigners have always had a CLEAR plan - to get back control of borders and lawmaking but to retain trade and services access at current levels, and to stop paying EU contributions.

The problem is that while it may be a clear plan, the EU insists (and I believe them) that it's not a REALISTIC plan.

I agree totally. 52% of those that voted want that clear plan. If it can't be delivered then the public needs.a.chance to choose again.
Say you go to into restaurant enticed by the sign in the window offering fillet steak for £5. You order it and the restaurant then tells you the steak is off and gives you.a.bacon sandwich and charges you £30 without giving you the chance to choose whether you would prefer another dish or even to go and eat elsewhere.
Yet that is exactly what the leavers are demanding. They say we must accept the restaurant's replacement and price simply because we choose to enter the restaurant. That can not be right..
 
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If the first part is what you are saying, I certainly read it right.

People need to take responsibility for their own actions. It's nobody's fault but the people who campagined and voted for [Brexit/Trump/FN] that [Brexit/Trump/FN] happened. We can discuss what could have been done and what can still be done to limit or contain this apparent spread of outright stupidity and bigotry over the Western world, but to start blaming the people who actively oppose these things is ludicrous.

I'm not blaming them for actively opposing them, but for being incompetent about it. Given how close both Brexit and Trump were marginally different approaches could sway the needle back into sanity. In the case of Trump this could be just that deplorables moment that cost Hillary the election. It wouldn't be a landslide victory, but she might be able to eek out enough to win if she could control herself. If not that plus a few minor differences would work for sure - her weird behavior certainly cost her votes too.

With Brexit I don't know about any such single moment that I would realistically expect to sway the electorate the other side, but the Bremain side certainly didn't make enough effort to reach the deplorable vote. They would have to dumb down the message at times in order to pry away voters from the clearly horrible choice. When it became clear they weren't listening to the experts it was high time to dumb the message down at times in order to either secure a portion of the deplorable vote or at least discourage them from voting for Brexit.

The opposition in both cases deserves criticism for not doing their job well enough. Both instances are where the deplorable vote gave victory from the jaws of defeat to the clearly horrible option. We need to learn from these mistakes in order not to repeat them - in Germany, France and the Netherlands, possibly also Italy in the next year alone. Filon leads LePen by two votes to one in polls, which is probably more than the deplorable vote can compensate for, but Italy, Germany and the Netherlands are a different matter, where the deplorable vote could potentially become an indispensable part of a ruling coalition. This is essentially a victory for them, even if they have only 10-15% of the vote. They need to be tackled, and the sane part of the politics is the only thing that can - and it can't do it by not trying, that's for sure.

McHrozni
 
We had an MP murdered during the campaign all because she dared to hold the idea that leaving the EU was a bad idea and not all immigrants are bad. She was killed by a right wing white male.
 
I'm not blaming them for actively opposing them, but for being incompetent about it. Given how close both Brexit and Trump were marginally different approaches could sway the needle back into sanity. In the case of Trump this could be just that deplorables moment that cost Hillary the election. It wouldn't be a landslide victory, but she might be able to eek out enough to win if she could control herself. If not that plus a few minor differences would work for sure - her weird behavior certainly cost her votes too.

With Brexit I don't know about any such single moment that I would realistically expect to sway the electorate the other side, but the Bremain side certainly didn't make enough effort to reach the deplorable vote. They would have to dumb down the message at times in order to pry away voters from the clearly horrible choice. When it became clear they weren't listening to the experts it was high time to dumb the message down at times in order to either secure a portion of the deplorable vote or at least discourage them from voting for Brexit.

The opposition in both cases deserves criticism for not doing their job well enough. Both instances are where the deplorable vote gave victory from the jaws of defeat to the clearly horrible option. We need to learn from these mistakes in order not to repeat them - in Germany, France and the Netherlands, possibly also Italy in the next year alone. Filon leads LePen by two votes to one in polls, which is probably more than the deplorable vote can compensate for, but Italy, Germany and the Netherlands are a different matter, where the deplorable vote could potentially become an indispensable part of a ruling coalition. This is essentially a victory for them, even if they have only 10-15% of the vote. They need to be tackled, and the sane part of the politics is the only thing that can - and it can't do it by not trying, that's for sure.

McHrozni

Don't you think dumbing down the argument is going to cost votes from sane people?

I'm all for engaging people in politics in order to stop them being ignorant voters, but I don't think dumbing it down is good for anyone. We're talking about complicated issues. We rightly criticize populists for proposing simple and dumb solutions to those problems.
 
Don't you think dumbing down the argument is going to cost votes from sane people?

Not necessarily, you can do both. See below.

I'm all for engaging people in politics in order to stop them being ignorant voters, but I don't think dumbing it down is good for anyone. We're talking about complicated issues. We rightly criticize populists for proposing simple and dumb solutions to those problems.

I'm not talking about proposing simple and dumb solutions. I'm talking about a political campaign even the dumb can understand. Clearly they didn't get the argument which said "Leaving a market you're deeply integrated in will lead to a substantial loss in tax income that will be significantly greater than any potential gain from the money paid to the EU, not to mention the lost investments, which will cost us future economic growth and endanger an entire generation". They did get however "We pay £350 million to the EU each week, let's send it to the NHS instead!".

The message should be communicated in a way that would reach the dumb and deplorable vote as well. "Brexit will cost you 15% of your wealth in the first year alone!" or huge posters with the face of Nigel Farage captioned "LIAR!" and a short explanation of the costs of Brexit (i.e. the money UK receives from EU with no mention of contributions) would be effective in securing some of the deplorable vote, or at least discouraging it from voting Leave.

I'm not saying the entire campaign should focus on that. Hell no, the campaign should be led mostly the way it was, with a few additions like the ones above, or similar to those if you prefer something else could pry enough idiots away from Brexit for the referendum to become a non-issue.

McHrozni
 
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Not necessarily, you can do both. See below.



I'm not talking about proposing simple and dumb solutions. I'm talking about a political campaign even the dumb can understand. Clearly they didn't get the argument which said "Leaving a market you're deeply integrated in will lead to a substantial loss in tax income that will be significantly greater than any potential gain from the money paid to the EU, not to mention the lost investments, which will cost us future economic growth and endanger an entire generation". They did get however "We pay £350 million to the EU each week, let's send it to the NHS instead!".

The message should be communicated in a way that would reach the dumb and deplorable vote as well. "Brexit will cost you 15% of your wealth in the first year alone!" or huge posters with the face of Nigel Farage captioned "LIAR!" and a short explanation of the costs of Brexit (i.e. the money UK receives from EU with no mention of contributions) would be effective in securing some of the deplorable vote, or at least discouraging it from voting Leave. I'm not saying the entire campaign should focus on that. Hell no, the campaign should be led mostly the way it was, with a few additions like the ones above, or similar to those if you prefer something else could pry enough idiots away from Brexit for the referendum to become a non-issue.

McHrozni

Not enough - all of that happened yet still the majority of those that voted ticked "leave".
 
Leave campaigners have always had a CLEAR plan - to get back control of borders and lawmaking but to retain trade and services access at current levels, and to stop paying EU contributions.

The problem is that while it may be a clear plan, the EU insists (and I believe them) that it's not a REALISTIC plan.

Now vested interests that want us to remain are deliberately confusing 'clear plan' with 'what will be the outcome of the negotiations'. We cannot possibly know that in advance of the negotiations, so the vested interests are really just trying to place an insurmountable hurdle to prevent any progress. It's a pathetic tactic and I'm confident that it will fail.

The problem is it is neither clear nor realistic. No-one had done a full impact analysis of the effects of leaving the EU not just on the subject of trade and immigration but on every aspect of domestic policy where we have enshrined EU policy and law. So no-one knows what the effect of withdrawal from the EU will actually be. It is not good enough to say it will be OK because we used to be great and we will be great again. The world is a very different place from the times when the UK was great.
 
We had an MP murdered during the campaign all because she dared to hold the idea that leaving the EU was a bad idea and not all immigrants are bad. She was killed by a right wing white male.

I remember that. Was it proven it was due to her Bremain activity, or is that a conjecture?

McHrozni
 
Not enough - all of that happened yet still the majority of those that voted ticked "leave".

There were posters with the face of Nigel Farage captioned "LIAR"?

I'm sure he was called liar many times, but the message isn't what I'm talking about. I'm talking about communicating it in a way the idiots who voted for Brexit would understand. Showing he's lying in an interview or a debate without explicitly saying so will work on many people, but you need to communicate it to those who are too stupid for their own good but can still vote as well. For those people his ugly face with a title "LIAR" would be more effective. Add a few sentences of what he wasn't telling in simple words on the bottom, and you're sure to cost him some votes.

Would it be enough? I don't know, but you don't need much to begin with. I must stress again this shouldn't replace the Bremain campaign and should remain a relatively minor part, mostly focused on areas with lower income and education levels. Local newspapers, posters, flyers that sort of thing.

McHrozni
 
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Leave campaigners have always had a CLEAR plan - to get back control of borders and lawmaking but to retain trade and services access at current levels, and to stop paying EU contributions.

The problem is that while it may be a clear plan, the EU insists (and I believe them) that it's not a REALISTIC plan.

Now vested interests that want us to remain are deliberately confusing 'clear plan' with 'what will be the outcome of the negotiations'. We cannot possibly know that in advance of the negotiations, so the vested interests are really just trying to place an insurmountable hurdle to prevent any progress. It's a pathetic tactic and I'm confident that it will fail.

No, that's a description of YOUR Brexit plan, not of a clear plan communicated by the Leave campaign.

Some Brexit campaigners were "clear" that what they wanted was a complete stop to immigration whether from the EU or outside - some were even suggesting repatriation.

Other Brexit campaigners were "clear" that the NHS would be getting an extra £350m a week but were not specific on how this would happen and the implications of it happening.

Others still (like BoJo at times) were clear that we would remain in the EEA with freedom of movement and that Brexit was an administrative exercise to excuse us from a few of the most "loony" EU rules.
 
There were posters with the face of Nigel Farage captioned "LIAR"? ...snip...

Please note the highlight.

No comment on the rest of the stuff you thought should have been done but actually was done? Since your other suggestions didn't work why do you think your "Farge liar" one would?

Seriously you really don't seem to know much about how the actual campaign ran in the lead up to the poll.
 
Please note the highlight.

No comment on the rest of the stuff you thought should have been done but actually was done?

The remaining stuff you highlighted was supposed to be a part of the same poster. I'm sure it was said many times over of how bad Brexit would be, but in a way the dumb deplorables didn't understand or respond to.

McHrozni
 
The remaining stuff you highlighted was supposed to be a part of the same poster. I'm sure it was said many times over of how bad Brexit would be, but in a way the dumb deplorables didn't understand or respond to.
McHrozni

Yep you really don't know how the actual campaign was run. How simpler could it be than "You will be poorer?", "You will lose your job" and so on?
 
I've tried to find a link to a quote I heard on the radio yesterday but failed. It basically said that although May will give a vote on the plan for Brexit, it doesn't mean that this is the plan that will be used. :eek:
 
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