Brexit: Now What? Part II

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Ten years of the Tory austerity cutting to reduce borrowing and debt and it's as bad as ever and they say it will be worse.

We had to make all those cuts so we could afford to chuck the foreigners out. Once they've gone we can close some of those hospitals that don't have staff and save some more money.

 

[Garrison]

We had to make all those cuts so we could afford to chuck the foreigners out. Once they've gone we can close some of those hospitals that don't have staff and save some more money.

Well if there's anything left over after the Corporation Tax cuts they promised to offset any negative Brexit effects.

 

[Arcade22]

The Chancellor also said that Britain will still have one of the fastest growing economies in the world - on a par with Germany but much faster than most other European countries such as France or Italy.

Too bad that "most other European countries" include a whole lot more than France and Italy. Hell Italy's economy has been stagnating since the 90's so even comparing it with the UK's economy is completely disingenuous.

Unless Britain does a "hard brexit", which is a very real possibility, it's quite likely it's economic growth is going to be unremarkable enough thanks due to increased government borrowing.

 

[MCel58]

Also there is a need to consider whether any trade in the future will necessarily create jobs, or be transparent enough to gain rewards from taxation policies, or be able to be controlled in the way we do now. We are moving very quickly into a world dominated by IoT, machine learning, AI where a lot of jobs are able to be done without humans or with very few humans and delivery of products and services are done at the domestic level. For a present day example in Belgium see https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...epper-humanoid

Manufacturing is facing fundamental changes in production due to things like 3D printing, increasing use of robotics and AI approaches. Service models are being changed by people like Airbnb and Uber and robotics. We are at a point where very soon the delivery of many products may only be the download of a print instruction to the 3D printer at home. As the cost of printing comes down and the technology undergoes continuous improvement we will see more and more of these in use at the domestic level. We will also face issues like pirating in large numbers in manufacturing which to date have only been issues for digital products.

These are big issues for International trade and the changes are not 10 years away but now. Both the White House and the UK treasury have published reports about how many types of jobs in all sectors will be lost to the fast movement of technology by 2020. These will all have a global effect on trade and any national economy.

Just as the multinationals become more and more digital and therefore more and more global we decide to Brexit and try to manage this huge economic change on our own.

 

[ceptimus]

Too bad that "most other European countries" include a whole lot more than France and Italy. Hell Italy's economy has been stagnating since the 90's so even comparing it with the UK's economy is completely disingenuous.

Please tell us which European countries are forecast to have growth greater than the current growth forecast for the UK.

 

[Darat]

Please tell us which European countries are forecast to have growth greater than the current growth forecast for the UK.

"forecast" is the word to concentrate on!

 

[ceptimus]

I already posted up thread that the OBR forecasts are always wrong. All economic forecasts are always wrong to some degree but the OBR ones are particularly bad. But they're the ones that the government is obliged to use, and they're officially the best ones we have, according to the experts.

 

[The Don]

Please tell us which European countries are forecast to have growth greater than the current growth forecast for the UK.

Within reason, I couldn't give a flying **** at what speed the Italian economy is forecast to grow except as it applies to the UK's ability to export to it. Personally I'd rather the UK economy was growing at 3% per annum and the Italian at a gajillion percent than UK economy was growing at 2% per annum and the Italian at 1%.

It seems that the immediate effect of the Brexit vote is a significant downgrade in the UK economic grow forecast - which IMO is a bad thing. The size of the downgrade is such that the impact on public finances appears to far outweigh the mythical "£350m a week" which will allegedly be available for the NHS

The current forecasts are consistent with the Remain campaign forecasts - that Brexit comes with a significant financial penalty to the UK economy - something the Leave campaign denied saying that experts don't know anything

As has been asked before in this thread (and AFAIK has not been answered) - as far as Brexit enthusiasts are concerned, is there a financial cost which would cause them to revise their opinion about Brexit or is it a point of principle which is worth any financial cost whatsoever ?

 

[Lothian]

Please tell us which European countries are forecast to have growth greater than the current growth forecast for the UK.

Belgium
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Portugal
Slovenia
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Croatia
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Sweden

From here

 

[Darat]

Yeah but apart from them...

 

[The Don]

<long list snipped>
From here

Those are forecasts, they're always wrong and so can be ignored. In Brexitworld the opposite of whatever is forecast occurs unless it looks bad for Brexit so.....

The UK economy is forecast to grow more slowly as a result of the impact of the Brexit vote - this forecast is wrong and the UK economy will actually grow more quickly as a result of Brexit.

A lot of EU economies are forecast to grow more quickly than the UK - these forecasts are wrong and the UK economy will grow more quickly than they.

The Italian economy is forecast to grow more quickly than the UK - these forecasts are wrong but the UK economy will in any case grow more quickly than the Italian economy.

 

[Lothian]

Yeah but apart from them...

We have a better growth forecast than Finland. They have NO DEBT and we WILL DO BETTER than them.

 

[3point14]

Belgium
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Portugal
Slovenia
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Croatia
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Sweden

From here

Yeah, but this is a list complied by experts and we're in the post-expert economy now, where nations should ignore so-called experts and just take the best guess based on emotion and the rhetoric or the morally bankrupt.

 

[ceptimus]

Belgium
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Portugal
Slovenia
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Croatia
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Sweden

From here

Out of date figures. Try again. Current growth figure for UK 2016 is 2.1%.

I know that the remoaners like to use pessimistic forecasts as though they were facts. Whenever reality proves them wrong they choose to ignore it.

 

[McHrozni]

Out of date figures. Try again. Current growth figure for UK 2016 is 2.1%.

The figures are two weeks old. I strongly suspect the discrepancy is not because they're out of date.

McHrozni

 

[Lothian]

Out of date figures. Try again. Current growth figure for UK 2016 is 2.1%.

I know that the remoaners like to use pessimistic forecasts as though they were facts. Whenever reality proves them wrong they choose to ignore it.

I was looking at 2017 and 2016 rather than a year that is practically over. .

Even if the latest more optimistic budget figures are used our future growth will be behind

Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Slovenia
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Croatia
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Sweden

 

[Tolls]

Essentially, as the EU is recovering (some might say finally), rather than stick with them and gain from that rising tide ((c) Liam) we decide to cut ourselves loose in our leaky old tub.

Great work, everybody!

 

[The Don]

Essentially, as the EU is recovering (some might say finally), rather than stick with them and gain from that rising tide ((c) Liam) we decide to cut ourselves loose in our leaky old tub.

Great work, everybody!

Well actually "Great work, the subset of the 52% who voted Brexit who thought that's what we would be getting"

 

[catsmate]

Very much like the thirties in that respect too.

That is a comparison with unpleasant potential.

 

[catsmate]

"forecast" is the word to concentrate on!

And who did the forecasting.