Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 5

[The Don]

Indeed. I can't foresee a "people's vote" happening at all. In the unlikely even that it did, I certainly can't see how a Remain option would get onto the ballot paper.

Still, blue ration books, eh?

Mrs Don is seriously worried (and is making me concerned as well).

In her view a no-deal Brexit will leave the UK in an economic mess the likes of which we have not seen. The NHS will be the first to go because we won't be able to afford it and in any case, there won't be enough medical personnel. Within a decade she reckons we'll have a US-style system where there is some public provision for those most likely to vote (i.e. the elderly) but that most people will have to rely on private medical insurance.

She's also concerned that taxes will have to rise steeply to help fund all the schemes the government will try to keep the country afloat. Corporate taxes will have to drop significantly and taxes on the rich will fall to stimulate growth. Instead the working and middle classes will see their taxes go through the roof. She also thinks that there will be taxes on savings so that people like us - rich enough to be comfortably off - not rich enough to warrant the fees associated with a tax haven - will see their savings erode rapidly.

The state pension will be another thing that we won't be able to afford. This, combined with the erosion of savings, will mean that almost everyone will be too poor to retire. We'll end up having to work low-wage jobs to try and make ends meet but the need to compete with the developing world will drive wages lower.

Her vision is that in 25 years the UK will be a developing country

 

[Arcade22]

Downing Street has insisted that Theresa May is confident of securing a Brexit deal with Brussels despite Liam Fox’s assertion that the UK appears set to crash out of the EU without reaching an agreement.

Whitehall sources said they believed there was only a very small chance of the government failing to secure a deal, but that preparations were being stepped up in what they described as the unlikely event of that taking place.

They suggested that the international trade secretary remarks on Sunday were part of a deliberate strategy to talk up the prospect of a no-deal Brexit in order to put EU leaders under pressure to take the prime minister’s Chequers plan seriously.

Ministers, however, have been growing increasingly anxious that Brussels’ determination to stick to its red lines despite a round of intense British diplomacy in recent days – including May cutting short her holiday to meet the French president, Emmanuel Macron – could spell trouble ahead.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...confident-of-reaching-brexit-deal-sources-say

It's almost like the British government is finally realizing that "no cherry picking" isn't just empty rhetoric.

 

[jimbob]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...confident-of-reaching-brexit-deal-sources-say

It's almost like the British government is finally realizing that "no cherry picking" isn't just empty rhetoric.

See The Don's post above yours.

That's a feature and a desired goal for the Rees Moggs.

As my colleague, Neil said, they want to break everything and see what rises in its place because it has to be better (for the rich).

 

[catsmate]

Mrs Don is seriously worried (and is making me concerned as well).

In her view a no-deal Brexit will leave the UK in an economic mess the likes of which we have not seen. The NHS will be the first to go because we won't be able to afford it and in any case, there won't be enough medical personnel. Within a decade she reckons we'll have a US-style system where there is some public provision for those most likely to vote (i.e. the elderly) but that most people will have to rely on private medical insurance.

She's also concerned that taxes will have to rise steeply to help fund all the schemes the government will try to keep the country afloat. Corporate taxes will have to drop significantly and taxes on the rich will fall to stimulate growth. Instead the working and middle classes will see their taxes go through the roof. She also thinks that there will be taxes on savings so that people like us - rich enough to be comfortably off - not rich enough to warrant the fees associated with a tax haven - will see their savings erode rapidly.

The state pension will be another thing that we won't be able to afford. This, combined with the erosion of savings, will mean that almost everyone will be too poor to retire. We'll end up having to work low-wage jobs to try and make ends meet but the need to compete with the developing world will drive wages lower.

Her vision is that in 25 years the UK will be a developing country

That mirrors one option in a recent report carried out by one of my clients, a large financial sector institution. Not the worst consequence either.

 

[catsmate]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...confident-of-reaching-brexit-deal-sources-say

It's almost like the British government is finally realizing that "no cherry picking" isn't just empty rhetoric.

The idiotic attempt by the UK to try and split the EU consensus has failed miserably. May hasn't managed to divide and conquer after all.

 

[jimbob]

The idiotic attempt by the UK to try and split the EU consensus has failed miserably. May hasn't managed to divide and conquer after all.

Consternation as Theresa May’s charm and amiability fails to divide EU 27

The government’s key Brexit strategy was left in tatters yesterday as its attempt to send senior Tories to European capitals, in order to convince their governments to support the UK, failed mainly due to the common perception on the continent that these envoys are ‘despicable *******’.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Mrs Don is seriously worried (and is making me concerned as well).

In her view a no-deal Brexit will leave the UK in an economic mess the likes of which we have not seen. The NHS will be the first to go because we won't be able to afford it and in any case, there won't be enough medical personnel. Within a decade she reckons we'll have a US-style system where there is some public provision for those most likely to vote (i.e. the elderly) but that most people will have to rely on private medical insurance.

She's also concerned that taxes will have to rise steeply to help fund all the schemes the government will try to keep the country afloat. Corporate taxes will have to drop significantly and taxes on the rich will fall to stimulate growth. Instead the working and middle classes will see their taxes go through the roof. She also thinks that there will be taxes on savings so that people like us - rich enough to be comfortably off - not rich enough to warrant the fees associated with a tax haven - will see their savings erode rapidly.

The state pension will be another thing that we won't be able to afford. This, combined with the erosion of savings, will mean that almost everyone will be too poor to retire. We'll end up having to work low-wage jobs to try and make ends meet but the need to compete with the developing world will drive wages lower.

Her vision is that in 25 years the UK will be a developing country

Mrs Don makes me feel like an optimist. I mean, I think it's going to be grim, but '80s recession grim, not Mad Max. There's a limit to how bad it can get. Ultimately the backstop is we elect a Lib Dem government and go crawling back to the EU. You need to ask yourself if things could ever be so awful that we'd go to the lengths of electing a Lib Dem government. It just seems inconceivable things can get that desperate.

 

[ceptimus]

It's sad that Mrs Don is so worried by Brexit. Project Fear's intended target is leave voters, but they should consider the effects that their doom laden predictions have on those people who already supported remain in the first place. Paradoxically the forecasts have a reverse effect on many leave supporters - the more gloomy and scary the predictions, the more leave supporters are inclined to laugh them off as over-hyped nonsense.

 

[p0lka]

It's sad that Mrs Don is so worried by Brexit. Project Fear's intended target is leave voters, but they should consider the effects that their doom laden predictions have on those people who already supported remain in the first place. Paradoxically the forecasts have a reverse effect on many leave supporters - the more gloomy and scary the predictions, the more leave supporters are inclined to laugh them off as over-hyped nonsense.

Yeah, it's just a shame they can't open their eyes and smell the roses.

 

[dudalb]

Consternation as Theresa May’s charm and amiability fails to divide EU 27

If you goal is to play one group against another, you are not so freaking obvious about it.

 

[dudalb]

Yeah, it's just a shame they can't open their eyes and smell the roses.

The only thing that matters is to keep people with Brown Skins and other foreignres out of the UK. "The Wogs Begin At Calais".

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Mrs Don is seriously worried (and is making me concerned as well).

In her view a no-deal Brexit will leave the UK in an economic mess the likes of which we have not seen. The NHS will be the first to go because we won't be able to afford it and in any case, there won't be enough medical personnel. Within a decade she reckons we'll have a US-style system where there is some public provision for those most likely to vote (i.e. the elderly) but that most people will have to rely on private medical insurance.

She's also concerned that taxes will have to rise steeply to help fund all the schemes the government will try to keep the country afloat. Corporate taxes will have to drop significantly and taxes on the rich will fall to stimulate growth. Instead the working and middle classes will see their taxes go through the roof. She also thinks that there will be taxes on savings so that people like us - rich enough to be comfortably off - not rich enough to warrant the fees associated with a tax haven - will see their savings erode rapidly.

The state pension will be another thing that we won't be able to afford. This, combined with the erosion of savings, will mean that almost everyone will be too poor to retire. We'll end up having to work low-wage jobs to try and make ends meet but the need to compete with the developing world will drive wages lower.

Her vision is that in 25 years the UK will be a developing country

The UK won't be a developing country. Developing countries have cheap beer and pretty girls. The UK will just be a fustercluck

 

[Blue Mountain]

From the other side of the Atlantic, it's my feeling that even if there's a hard Brexit, things will be a bit chaotic at the borders for about six weeks until a new set of norms arises. I don't think there will be an economic collapse, hyperinflation, runs on the banks, or even shortages of critical drugs. This is a country that has survived plagues, a fire that burned most of London in 1666, and more recently the Blitz.

Brexit certainly is being handled horribly by the government, but it won't lead to a collapse of of the UK. I'm sure there will be inconveniences, and I wouldn't be surprised if the M20 turns into a gigantic artic park. There could well be some job losses, but will they bump the unemployment rate more than 0.2%?

 

[angrysoba]

Brexit certainly is being handled horribly by the government, but it won't lead to a collapse of of the UK.

Sounds like a good new slogan for a bus. And it could end up being just as truthful with:

a) the unresolved problem of the Irish border
b) the growing desire of Scotland to be independent and remain in the EU

 

[The Don]

Brexit certainly is being handled horribly by the government, but it won't lead to a collapse of of the UK. I'm sure there will be inconveniences, and I wouldn't be surprised if the M20 turns into a gigantic artic park.

It will.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-45021133

...and the suggestion is that the contingency will be in place for years.

While the closure of the motorway and associated congestion is in itself inconvenient, the bigger issue for the UK economy is the impact that delays in transport will have on UK and European supply chains.

If you're a German manufacturer who is currently sourcing parts from the UK but now you're experiencing all kinds of distribution problems, you're going to start looking elsewhere for them in the future - not the kind of "help" UK manufacturing is going to want.

There could well be some job losses, but will they bump the unemployment rate more than 0.2%?

Do you mean net or gross ? 0.2% is around 65,000 jobs (UK labour market is 32 million or so).

If it's simply the number of jobs lost then as of nine months ago it was estimated that that number had already been lost in retail alone:

Britain has lost 65,000 retail jobs since it voted to leave the European Union, a decline fueled by increased online competition and a Brexit-induced wage squeeze.

https://money.cnn.com/2017/12/13/news/economy/retail-jobs-uk-brexit/index.html

A very partial facebook page is keeping track of the number of job losses due to Brexit that have been announced in the press. They have the estimate at 150k, or close to 0.5% - I'd take that number with a healthy pinch of salt though.

https://www.facebook.com/BrexitWrecksIt/

OTOH an uptick of 0.2% in the overall jobless number could easily just be seasonal variation.

 

[The Don]

It's sad that Mrs Don is so worried by Brexit. Project Fear's intended target is leave voters, but they should consider the effects that their doom laden predictions have on those people who already supported remain in the first place.

One of the direct effects of the Brexit vote is that for the last 12 months we have stopped investing in the company (and as it happens, taking out dividends) and are instead building up a fund to be able to offer our employees a decent redundancy package (6 months is the target) rather than statutory minimum if, as expected, post-Brexit our EU clients opt for EU suppliers. We consider this to be being responsible business owners but it's symptomatic of the lack of investment in UK business due to the appalling way Brexit is being handled.

Paradoxically the forecasts have a reverse effect on many leave supporters - the more gloomy and scary the predictions, the more leave supporters are inclined to laugh them off as over-hyped nonsense.

The story of the ant and the grasshopper spring to mind. By all means being unrealistically optimistic about the future, but don't come running to the likes of me in the event that it doesn't turn out as you hoped.

 

[Arcade22]

It's sad that Mrs Don is so worried by Brexit. Project Fear's intended target is leave voters, but they should consider the effects that their doom laden predictions have on those people who already supported remain in the first place. Paradoxically the forecasts have a reverse effect on many leave supporters - the more gloomy and scary the predictions, the more leave supporters are inclined to laugh them off as over-hyped nonsense.

Of course. They are convinced that their lives are terrible and could hardly get worse. Everything is worse than before so something, anything, must be done!

 

[Lothian]

the more gloomy and scary the predictions, the more leave supporters are inclined to laugh them off as over-hyped nonsense.

We have established they are relatively thick. I note your view that they are Paranoid as well.

 

[Aber]

Your proposed way forward ensures that a hard border exists and the terms of the GFA are broken.

Please provide the text from the GFA that guarantees the absence of a border.

 

[Aber]

It's quite simple apparently.

We want to leave completely - so we're not subject to any of the four freedoms, the primacy of the ECJ or the intolerable burden of the ECHR.

We're not leaving the ECHR.

(and yes I remember May's intervention in the campaign to float the idea).