Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[ceptimus]

In what way? Nothing very significant can change in the short time he'll have been PM.

We'll have had three months of expecting no deal unless the EU offer a better deal. Under May we'd have had three more months expecting another extension with Phillip Hammond continuing to block the majority of spending on no deal preparations.

 

[The Don]

No, it's not a 'hub' (ugh) it's a global financial centre.

Are you sure it's not a hub ?

How London Became the World’s Financial Hub

https://www.investopedia.com/how-london-became-the-world-s-financial-hub-4589324

Although to be fair, opinion conflicts:

London has lost its title as the world financial hub to New York, just a year after gaining it, according to a survey of financial sector professionals around the world. Citing Brexit as the chief factor that has tarnished the UK capital’s reputation, respondents also said the situation is unlikely to improve in the coming five years.

https://www.consultancy.uk/news/21452/london-forfeits-title-of-global-financial-hub-to-new-york

Top bankers back London as financial hub whatever Brexit outcome

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...ial-hub-whatever-brexit-outcome-idUKKCN1R20UE

 

[Tolls]

We'll have had three months of expecting no deal unless the EU offer a better deal. Under May we'd have had three more months expecting another extension with Phillip Hammond continuing to block the majority of spending on no deal preparations.

They're not spending on preparations, though.
Johnson is pissing all the money away to try and boost his popularity (and that of the Tories)...almost as if he were building up for an election. He's barely spent anything on actual preparations.

It's all smoke and mirrors, and you're falling for it. No great surprise there, though.

 

[ceptimus]

It's all smoke and mirrors, and you're falling for it. No great surprise there, though.

Thanks for the assertion and the insult. In future, try to debate rather than insult - it's more productive, makes you look smarter, and is more in keeping with the aims of this forum.

 

[Vixen]

According to people close to him, Boris Johnson doesn't really do plans. He finds planning a chore and prefers instead to rely on instinct and react to new developments.

As learnt on the playing fields of Eton.

Hello hurray

 

[Vixen]

I think he's just a usefulless idiot for the right wing of his party.

FIFY

 

[Vixen]

Running a GE prior to a no-deal Brexit, definitely. But after? Doable, I think.



The procedure from VNOC to a new GE lasts a minimum of seven weeks if he doesn't actively expedite the process. There are eight weeks between when a VNOC can first be held on September 5th and October 31st. This part is not difficult at all, so long as VNOC is not held on the first parliamentary session after a month long recess he's basically in the clear on this particular point. If UK keeps Thursday as election day the only option would be to hold a GE on Brexit day, which may already be enough. Nor is this a viable way to stop Brexit any more, since any new Parliament would be seated only after Brexit has taken place irrespective of what happens.



No, the moment a no-deal Brexit happens the question is no longer what a no-deal Brexit will do to the UK. The question voters will be asking is who is best suited to manage the results. It doesn't have to be BJ in the eyes of the public, if non-Tory vote is evenly split between Labour (an established party with lots of history and cadres) and LibDem (less able party that didn't betray their constituents), BJ can win a clear majority. He doesn't even have to win a plurality of votes, a majority of MPs without a plurality of votes cast is a very real possibility.



Possibly, but time is short indeed. Make no mistake, the plan is still frought with peril - if Parliament demands he asks the EU for an extension as not to do a no-deal Brexit during an election campaign and he is forced to go to Brussels and EU grants the extension despite BJs best efforts not to it could all go down in fire and smoke.

But can you think of a better strategy for him? Not for UK, for him personally? Without delivering Brexit he's likely to lose any election thanks to bleeding voters to Brexit party. He is unable to push the deal through and he is unable to force EU to budge. What else can he do but deliver Brexit and (attempt? appear? to) manage the results?

McHrozni

It managed an unexpected EU parliamentary elections ballot very speedily so I am sure a GE can be hurried up as the electoral register won't have changed much since then.

 

[Vixen]

You missed the part where I said, "unless the government wants to..."

But of course the government doesn't want to change the law - at long last we have a government that is actually committed to leaving.

And what a sorry band of vagabonds they are.

 

[Tolls]

Thanks for the assertion and the insult. In future, try to debate rather than insult - it's more productive, makes you look smarter, and is more in keeping with the aims of this forum.

Then maybe you'd be able to point out the actual, meaningful, preparations at work?

And maybe you'd like to compare that to vast swathes of dosh Johnson has promised in the past fortnight that have nothing to do with Brexit?

Show me you've actually done some homework on this and are not parroting the pro-Brexit talking points. Because that's all I've seen so far from you since the start. Your patent refusal to understand the issues around being dumped onto WTO terms being one of the highlights.

 

[Vixen]

Perhaps, but there'll be a lack of warehouse space. Post-Halloween is usually the time they're ordinarily packed. How add a few weeks of 'contingency' supplies...

Expect shortages, violence, looting et cetera.

Shades of 2011. All it needs is cops to shoot dead some gun-wielding gangster and it will all kick off again.

 

[Vixen]

The difference is that May would have asked for another extension. Boris won't. The EU would perhaps eventually tire of granting further extensions: at least under Boris we'll be better prepared for no deal.

Let's bookmark this post as a prophecy and come back to it this time next year.

I predict you will be cursing his name.

 

[Vixen]

Are you sure it's not a hub ?



https://www.investopedia.com/how-london-became-the-world-s-financial-hub-4589324

Although to be fair, opinion conflicts:



https://www.consultancy.uk/news/21452/london-forfeits-title-of-global-financial-hub-to-new-york




https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...ial-hub-whatever-brexit-outcome-idUKKCN1R20UE

It is just a horrible word that has crept into our language. A hub is either the centre of a wheel or a shelf in a kitchen.

Everything is a 'hub' these days. My current pet hate word.

It doesn't matter how many newspapers use the word, it doesn't make it right.

 

[McHrozni]

It managed an unexpected EU parliamentary elections ballot very speedily so I am sure a GE can be hurried up as the electoral register won't have changed much since then.

Seven weeks is the legal limit. It may even be nine weeks, it depends on how you interpret the whole thing. You can't go around that quite as easily.

McHrozni

 

[ponderingturtle]

As learnt on the playing fields of Eton.

Hello hurray

Stage at Eton really. Where he learned he didn't need to learn his lines and could paste them on the back of a column to read when he needed to and get a laugh at being the fool.

 

[ceptimus]

Your patent refusal to understand the issues around being dumped onto WTO terms being one of the highlights.

Something I've always advocated since the first stage of this now eight stage thread, is walking away from the fruitless and time wasting 'negotiations', telling the EU to come see us in London if and when they want to negotiate a free trade deal, and use the time available to prepare for exit without any deal.

So I've been consistent throughout. It's others who have been very slow to realize the realities of leaving.

 

[Tolls]

Something I've always advocated since the first stage of this now eight stage thread, is walking away from the fruitless and time wasting 'negotiations', telling the EU to come see us in London if and when they want to negotiate a free trade deal, and use the time available to prepare for exit without any deal.

So I've been consistent throughout. It's others who have been very slow to realize the realities of leaving.

You've been consistent.
Consistent in your lack of knowledge how the real world actually works.

Your inability to understand why trade agreements take so long to sign.
Your inability to understand that WTO terms would be crippling to the UK economy.
Your inability to understand that we already trade with all the countries you want to trade with, and have agreements with all these countries already.

So yes, you've been consistent.

 

[erwinl]

Something I've always advocated since the first stage of this now eight stage thread, is walking away from the fruitless and time wasting 'negotiations', telling the EU to come see us in London if and when they want to negotiate a free trade deal, and use the time available to prepare for exit without any deal.

So I've been consistent throughout. It's others who have been very slow to realize the realities of leaving.

Couple of questions (assuming you don't have me on ignore).

A trade deal involves some give and some take.

What do you think the UK is prepared to give, in order to secure a trade deal with the EU?

And second. Assuming a trade deal is agreed upon. What assurance does the EU, or any other country, have that it will be approved by parliament at all? Or whther it will be binned by the next government some few years in the future?

 

[a_unique_person]

It is just a horrible word that has crept into our language. A hub is either the centre of a wheel or a shelf in a kitchen.



Everything is a 'hub' these days. My current pet hate word.



It doesn't matter how many newspapers use the word, it doesn't make it right.

I'm sorry. I won't use that word again in any thread in which you are participating.

 

[GlennB]

We'll have had three months of expecting no deal unless the EU offer a better deal. Under May we'd have had three more months expecting another extension with Phillip Hammond continuing to block the majority of spending on no deal preparations.

In other words, what Dave Rogers said? We'll have 3 months to gird our mental loins, because those 3 months certainly won't be much use for anything that will make significant practical difference.

Even then, at what point will we know for sure we'll crash out on Oct 31st? Is there a legal way to prevent Johnson seeking an extension, for example?

 

[Darat]

In what way? Nothing very significant can change in the short time he'll have been PM.

Don't be silly he'll have 2000 new front line border agents trained and ready. I mean that's so easy to get done, probably be ready weeks if not months early!

...You would be trained on the job through a mixture of in-house training and learning from experienced staff. Training usually lasts around nine months, and may include some residential training courses....