Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[ceptimus]

We need EU permission to come up with a proposal? Wow.

We've made many proposals to the EU. It's rather a waste of time if they just reject them out of hand, or insist they can't be discussed until after Brexit.

 

[Vixen]

You don't like it because it succinctly encapsulates the fundamental unreasonableness of the Brexiteer position.

They don't want to pay a subscription or green fee
As a non-member they don't feel bound by the club rules
But they still want to play the course as if they were a member

However, if the non-member is British then it confers great favour on the golf club to let him play as an honorary member. It should be glad that such an innately superior being deigns to grace its green, never mind even talk to one.

 

[ceptimus]

They don't still want to play the course as if they were a member. They just want to leave. If the club is prepared to offer a way of paying per round, and if the cost is reasonable, then they might still play there. If not they will play at different clubs.

What is not acceptable is for the club to dictate to ex-members that they can never play at any other club.

 

[a_unique_person]

Nice to see Johnson has things under controlis doing what he is told :

"One Conservative insider said that Cummings had in effect demanded control over Johnson’s operation as his price for entering government and proceeded to sideline more moderate advisers, such as ex-City Hall stalwart Sir Eddie Lister, while installing a team of “true believers” in hard Brexit largely from the former Vote Leave campaign.

The source described Cummings’ grip over No 10 as a “reign of terror”, with advisers petrified about keeping their jobs and being told they are expected to be working flat out to deliver Brexit come what may by the 31 October deadline."

FTFY

 

[McHrozni]

A sensible option would be to continue to trade exactly as if we were a full EU member during, say, the first two years after leaving. That would eliminate all this 'cliff edge' nonsense, and give both sides an incentive to agree a trade deal before the period expired. But as I said, that's a sensible option, so I don't expect the EU to agree to it for one moment.

So, um, you support the WA I take it?

Because that's what it says, almost word for word.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

After a no deal the EU will not insist on the backstop. The backstop was designed to keep the NI border open. When we leaveno on deal there will be a border so there is no free trade to preserve. There will no future deal with the EU while Boris insists we will not pay for the services we promised to fund until 2020.

After no deal EU will insist on a permanent customs border in the Irish sea as a precondition to open talks. It will probably happen in any event, due to a border poll.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

You're missing the point. The backstop means that the UK can't negotiate ANY trade deal with ANY other country. That is clearly unacceptable.

Nonesense, of course it can - UK can quit the customs union and is free to make whatever trade deals with whomever the moment it comes up with an Irish border solution that does not involve a border between NI and Ireland.

The only viable solution thus far is a customs border in the Irish sea. The first proposal of the EU was a backstop that puts a customs border in the Irish sea. I think I can see how this could all work out in the end.

The EU have been told over and over again that keeping to the GFA does not necessitate the onerous backstop - but it doesn't suit their negotiating position to accept that, so they just keep saying, 'Non.'

Of course it doesn't. A border poll upon which NI secedes from UK and joins Ireland, perhaps after a few years as an independent state to sort the technical details out, is a viable solution and in line with letter and spirit of GFA.

Expect a new Hadrian wall next, but manned from the north.

McHrozni

 

[Lothian]

They don't still want to play the course as if they were a member. They just want to leave. If the club is prepared to offer a way of paying per round, and if the cost is reasonable, then they might still play there. If not they will play at different club.

This is not what people voted for. Before the referendum leave campaigners were not saying that Brexit would mean we lose all our EU privileges. We were told we would keep them all but lose the downsides.
This is not what people voted for.

 

[The Don]

This is not what people voted for. Before the referendum leave campaigners were not saying that Brexit would mean we lose all our EU privileges. We were told we would keep them all but lose the downsides.
This is not what people voted for.

The Remain campaign did point out that there was a significant risk that this might happen but the Leave campaign assured us all that this was just the so-called "experts" of Project Fear at work.

 

[Planigale]

All we need to do is negotiate a trade deal and the backstop goes away.

No the backstop does not go away. The backstop remains. What it requires is that whatever changes there are in the EU in future the UK passively follows. If the EU decides to ban US goods or make Disney characters illegal* then the UK has to follow.

Now if you believe the EU is wonderful and can never do wrong then that is fine, I happen to think that at present staying in the EU is better than not; but I think that could change in the future. Leaving the EU has a mechanism article 50. There is no exit from the backstop. It requires the UK to be subject to EU law as it is now and as it will be in the future in perpetuity with no legal exit except as agreed by the EU.

*The EU is quite capable of irrational legislation e.g. on GMO. Their is a more rational basis for arguing that Disney's cultural appropriation and claimed ownership of e.g. Snow White, should be banned than GMO's.

 

[Planigale]

This is not what people voted for. Before the referendum leave campaigners were not saying that Brexit would mean we lose all our EU privileges. We were told we would keep them all but lose the downsides.
This is not what people voted for.

I am sure many people voted for Brexit for many different reasons. I do not believe you know what all those people thought would be the consequence of Brexit. I do know people who thought there would be a worsening of the economy post Brexit but who thought there would be a longer term gain. People who thought a short term sacrifice was justified for the longer term benefits. One person I know argues that with global warming the EU would be flooded with refugees and the global warming would impact central and southern europe more than the UK. That looking 30 years ahead the UK needed to be able to adopt its own policies.

 

[ceptimus]

So, um, you support the WA I take it?

Because that's what it says, almost word for word.

McHrozni

If the backstop had an exit mechanism, I would support the WA. I'm not happy with some other parts of it, but in a spirit of compromise, I would put up with its other failings. I suspect with a backstop exit mechanism it would get a majority vote from MPs too.

 

[Lothian]

I am sure many people voted for Brexit for many different reasons. I do not believe you know what all those people thought would be the consequence of Brexit. I do know people who thought there would be a worsening of the economy post Brexit but who thought there would be a longer term gain. People who thought a short term sacrifice was justified for the longer term benefits. One person I know argues that with global warming the EU would be flooded with refugees and the global warming would impact central and southern europe more than the UK. That looking 30 years ahead the UK needed to be able to adopt its own policies.

Do you think 52% would have voted for the hard brexit and loss of EU privileges that Boris is now prioritising? That no-one was persuaded that German car dealers would make sure that we kept free trade and a customs union but we would not have to pay any contribution and could set our own policies?
It is not about the odd individual view it is about a majority opinion.

My view is the current path would not have popular support.

 

[ceptimus]

This is not what people voted for. Before the referendum leave campaigners were not saying that Brexit would mean we lose all our EU privileges. We were told we would keep them all but lose the downsides.
This is not what people voted for.

You'd be foolish to believe all the claims made by any campaigners. During the Brexit campaign both sides lied. I think this happens with most election campaigns. Politicians are liars! (shock!)

I never expected that the EU would allow us to keep all EU privileges after we'd left - they would be mad to do that as it would encourage lots of other countries to also leave the EU.

 

[McHrozni]

If the backstop had an exit mechanism, I would support the WA. I'm not happy with some other parts of it, but in a spirit of compromise, I would put up with its other failings. I suspect with a backstop exit mechanism it would get a majority vote from MPs too.

Backstop does have an exit mechanism. It's not intended or desired to be permanent. The moment Irish border can remain open as it is today the backstop goes away.

EU even offered legally binding agreement to submit to an arbitration, should UK seriously consider to quit but EU wasn't going to let it go. That was just before the second vote, which did not get a majority vote from the MPs, to put it mildly.

McHrozni

 

[ceptimus]

Backstop does have an exit mechanism. It's not intended or desired to be permanent.

I don't agree that it does have an exit mechanism - not one that can be triggered by the UK. It requires EU consent to exit, or we're stuck in it for evermore.

I know they say that it's not intended to be permanent. Politicians also said that about income tax when it was introduced. I don't trust them. There must be an exit mechanism that can be triggered by either side, and that mechanism needs to be written in law.

What court or body would preside over the arbitration?

 

[Andy_Ross]

No the backstop does not go away. The backstop remains. What it requires is that whatever changes there are in the EU in future the UK passively follows. If the EU decides to ban US goods or make Disney characters illegal* then the UK has to follow.

Now if you believe the EU is wonderful and can never do wrong then that is fine, I happen to think that at present staying in the EU is better than not; but I think that could change in the future. Leaving the EU has a mechanism article 50. There is no exit from the backstop. It requires the UK to be subject to EU law as it is now and as it will be in the future in perpetuity with no legal exit except as agreed by the EU.

*The EU is quite capable of irrational legislation e.g. on GMO. Their is a more rational basis for arguing that Disney's cultural appropriation and claimed ownership of e.g. Snow White, should be banned than GMO's.

Edited by zooterkin: 

<SNIP>
Edited for rule 0 and rule 12.

 

[McHrozni]

I never expected that the EU would allow us to keep all EU privileges after we'd left - they would be mad to do that as it would encourage lots of other countries to also leave the EU.

Good for you. Now prove beyond a reasonable doubt the same holds true for the other 30,358,759 voters who did not vote to remain. You'll need to prove both of course.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

I don't agree that it does have an exit mechanism - not one that can be triggered by the UK.

Your agreement has as much bearing on it as the opinion of Michael Dubay has on the shape of the Earth.

What court or body would preside over the arbitration?

It was a proposal, not fully agreed on part of the deal. The details such as these could all be agreed to in advance, if UK was remotely interested in having a deal.

McHrozni

 

[Tolls]

I don't agree that it does have an exit mechanism - not one that can be triggered by the UK. It requires EU consent to exit, or we're stuck in it for evermore.

Nonsense.
We can just leave, much as Johnson is threatening to do at the end of October.

If we put a solution in place that is reasonable, and the EU reject it, we can do precisely what we're doing at the moment.

I'm with GnaGnaMan, the backstop is an excuse simply because it does not prevent us going No Deal.