Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Is a confirmatory referendum on the table? I assume with my bias this is a strategic plan that has a powerful groundswell. Otherwise I will retreat and surrender and forget the whole thing.

It's more likely than it was, but still not actually likely.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

How does that work then? Hoping to amend it into a substantially different bill?

Basically, yes. Which also won't happen, because Johnson will pull it entirely if it's changed substantially.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Johnson has got to the same place May had got to.

Further, actually. May's bill didn't pass the first reading.

 

[wobs]

And if there is a general election, it could get scrapped by a new Government (Tory or otherwise), as they can't be bound by a previous Government.

 

[Samson]

No, there are no current plans for a confirmatory referendum, not least because Brexiteers are pretty sure that any Brexit deal would lose heavily against Remain.

Brexiteers might support a Boris' Deal vs No Deal referendum but that wouldn't get any traction from Remoaners like me.

I have in mind a cabal of crafty politicians who will pretend brexit is such a good idea that it will be a formality to append an amendment requiring a simple will of the people to confirm.
Or something weaselly like that.
I sincerely believe noone can object to a confirmatory referendum so it will/must happen.
Who would object??

 

[McHrozni]

Johnson has got to the same place May had got to. But he wants to do the debating about the bill and any amendments and votes on the amendments in only 3 days. Parliament has said no, since it would clearly take more than 3 days to debate and amend.

The debates and amendments over May's deal took weeks and they were never happy with it. I think Parliament knows they will just be stuck in the same rut as before. Lots of amendments and no agreements.

They are looking for another way out and a GE is one.

Thanks

McHrozni

 

[Dave Rogers]

I have in mind a cabal of crafty politicians who will pretend brexit is such a good idea that it will be a formality to append an amendment requiring a simple will of the people to confirm.
Or something weaselly like that.
I sincerely believe noone can object to a confirmatory referendum so it will/must happen.
Who would object??

Everyone in favour of Brexit, who have spent the last three and a half years explaining in detail why, once their side has won one referendum, any second referendum before everyone who voted in the first one is dead would be an attack on the very fundamentals of democracy, although if the first one had gone the other way a second referendum as soon as possible would have been absolutely vital to the proper functioning of democracy. From a tactical point of view the bro-Brexit side have nothing to gain and everythign to lose from a second referendum, so they'll advance every argument and use every tactic they can think of to avoid it. And if you sincerely believe no-one can object to a confirmatory referendum, you haven't been paying attention.

Dave

 

[The Don]

I have in mind a cabal of crafty politicians who will pretend brexit is such a good idea that it will be a formality to append an amendment requiring a simple will of the people to confirm.
Or something weaselly like that.
I sincerely believe noone can object to a confirmatory referendum so it will/must happen.
Who would object??

All Brexiteers, because they know they would lose such an amendment.

In the context of the UK parliament that's all Conservative and DUP MPs and a sizeable minority of the Labour Party (including its leader - unless he's so addled that he thinks that "his" Brexit deal would buck the trend and have public support).

 

[Pixel42]

Everyone in favour of Brexit, who have spent the last three and a half years explaining in detail why, once their side has won one referendum, any second referendum before everyone who voted in the first one is dead would be an attack on the very fundamentals of democracy, although if the first one had gone the other way a second referendum as soon as possible would have been absolutely vital to the proper functioning of democracy.

That's actually one of the panes in the graphic I posted; you know, the one about which ceptimus declared "The right hand side of each of those images has been bought upon us because of remain-supporting politicians plotting to thwart Brexit. Were it not for them, the left hand side statements would have been shown to be correct ."

In this case the quotes were from Nigel Farage.

The left hand comment was (17 May 2016): "in a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business in a big way"

and the right hand comment was (28 Feb 2019): "[Another Poll] would be an outrage. Remain shouldn't even be on the ballot paper".

 

[BobTheCoward]

I have in mind a cabal of crafty politicians who will pretend brexit is such a good idea that it will be a formality to append an amendment requiring a simple will of the people to confirm.
Or something weaselly like that.
I sincerely believe noone can object to a confirmatory referendum so it will/must happen.
Who would object??

I object. My argument is the hundreds of years of debates on representation versus direct democracy.

 

[Dave Rogers]

That's actually one of the panes in the graphic I posted; you know, the one about which ceptimus declared "The right hand side of each of those images has been bought upon us because of remain-supporting politicians plotting to thwart Brexit. Were it not for them, the left hand side statements would have been shown to be correct ."

Yes, that's one thing I'm painfully aware of. What I'd like to see at the moment is how Nigel Farage's current calls for a delay to Brexit, and abuse towards Juncker for suggesting there shouldn't be one, stack up against what he's said in the past. His latest material is practically parallel universe stuff.

Dave

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Passing the first reading means that the bill can now be amended. There are several MPs who have said that they voted it through not because they support the bill, but because they don't.

The timetable not being voted through means that MPs have agreed that it needs more scrutiny. Johnson is trying to use this to force a general election, and he may succeed.

Haven't updated myself this morning but there was much pseudo philosophical debate last night on whether the Bill was dead, paused or in limbo as well as what being in limbo actually meant and then some discussions on the teachings of the Catholic Church, Dante and Monty Python. (And I'm not even joking)

This is just a jolly old jape for the Eton boys.

My understanding of the actual situation:

- The Bill is now stopped and cannot progress until a timetable is approved by Parliament
- The Government aren't going to bring this timetable motion for the time being
- Nothing can therefore get approved before Oct 31.
- We are waiting to see if the EU approve an extension, if they do then we will get an extension, if not then we will have a no-deal exit at the end of the month
- The Tories want an election as they think they will win it. But they can't get one without the support of the opposition.
-Meanwhile the Tories are claiming the deal was approved, while Labour are saying they only passed it so they can change it completely.

Confused yet? Everyone else is.

 

[3point14]

Yes, that's one thing I'm painfully aware of. What I'd like to see at the moment is how Nigel Farage's current calls for a delay to Brexit, and abuse towards Juncker for suggesting there shouldn't be one, stack up against what he's said in the past. His latest material is practically parallel universe stuff.

Dave

It doesn't mater what anyone said yesterday, it seems. Consistency is for the weak.

Our current PM lied weekly for money for years. If what people said yesterday mattered we wouldn't be here.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

- The Tories want an election as they think they will win it. But they can't get one without the support of the opposition.

This is the most worrying thing - a general election looks increasingly likely, and the Tories do look like they'd do well in one, perhaps even getting a majority.

What I'm realistically hopeful for at the moment is a general election in which Johnson not succeeding with his "do or die" deadline splits off a sizeable proportion of the Tory vote to the Brexit party, and where the opposition parties coordinate intelligently so that we end up with the Tories as a minority, and a coalition government that can actually cooperate enough to sort out a decent deal that will get through parliament, and then hold a second referendum.

This is possible (the earlier parts more so than the later), but I wouldn't say that I'm confident.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

This is the most worrying thing - a general election looks increasingly likely, and the Tories do look like they'd do well in one, perhaps even getting a majority.

What I'm realistically hopeful for at the moment is a general election in which Johnson not succeeding with his "do or die" deadline splits off a sizeable proportion of the Tory vote to the Brexit party, and where the opposition parties coordinate intelligently so that we end up with the Tories as a minority, and a coalition government that can actually cooperate enough to sort out a decent deal that will get through parliament, and then hold a second referendum.

This is possible (the earlier parts more so than the later), but I wouldn't say that I'm confident.

It's all on a razors edge and really depends when the election is and what the state of play is at that point.

I'd be concerned that the Tories went to an election on a no-deal ticket and got a majority for it. It may well be that they would do better with no-deal than the current mish-mash deal they have negotiated.

I think that's the concern with giving them an election and why nobody really wants to do it until something is agreed, but on the other hand I can't see a way out of the current stalemate.

I also think that's why the BoJo deal has the ability to drop out on no deal terms baked in because they probably foresee having a majority in Parliament in the next year and being able to do that.

It's a disaster really.

 

[Francesca R]

He needs a two-thirds majority to get that and now that DUP has dumped him he won't get a GE unless it is favourable to Labour/LibDems/Greens/SNP

it isn't favourable to them at any time because as a group they are considerably more likely to lose than a few months ago

they will vote for it once he extension is confirmed.

I am not sure which is worse for the opposition(s), an election where Johnson "is going to be the only one who will deliver brexit" or one where Johnson "just delivered brexit"

I think the first scenario is worse for the conservatives because of Farage. Johnson would probably rather let the legislation wind it's merry way through a bit more slowly, gambling that there will be no majority in the present house for either a customs union or a referendum.

As for Johnson's HOC tantrums and bluffs the most telling remark from yesterday that I saw was "One way or another we are leaving the EU with this deal". There was already a high "endowment effect" influence because Boris had got a "fantastic new" #HaHa deal, there is even more of one now it has received a 30 vote win in the commons. The government is surely not going to "pull" this legislation in my view.

 

[Nessie]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ail-to-agree-timetable-for-paused-brexit-bill

Corbyn and Johnson meet and cannot agree.

I think it is time that Parliament faces up to its inability to agree on what to do and go back to the public, either with a GE or another referendum.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

I'd be concerned that the Tories went to an election on a no-deal ticket and got a majority for it. It may well be that they would do better with no-deal than the current mish-mash deal they have negotiated.

I don't think they'll ever explicitly endorse a No Deal. That'll always be presented as a last resort that they'll begrudgingly go far, at least as far as what they present to the public goes.

I think that's the concern with giving them an election and why nobody really wants to do it until something is agreed, but on the other hand I can't see a way out of the current stalemate.

I honestly think that the realistic best-case scenario is the one I outlined above.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I honestly think that the realistic best-case scenario is the one I outlined above.

The two queries I would raise there is whether:

1. The hard right cabinet that Bojo has assembled will be seen as staunch enough to render the Brexit Party somewhat impotent. They seem to have gone slightly quiet of late. You also wonder whether some deals have been done behind closed doors.

2. The opposition are capable of co-operation given that Swinson seems to be doing her best to annoy everyone, Corbyn is Corbyn and nobody seems willing to offer the SNP anything worthwhile.

 

[Nessie]

The last time I saw anything of the Brexit Party or Farage in the media, was on STV a few weeks ago and a party political broadcast, where they presented no deal as if it was a deal.

Hopefully they have been sidelined as irrelevant with nothing to offer.

I do worry that Johnson will adopt the Brexit Party tactic, of there is a GE, of offering no deal as if it is a deal.