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Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

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The odds (Ladbrokes) for the vote on 19/10/19 are 56% pass 44% fail with respect to Johnson's deal

The odds on what will happen on 31/10/19 are extension 53%, brexit deal 32%, brexit no-deal 13% and revoke 2%

Although Johnson still contends that it is his deal or no deal and that extension/revoke has 0% probability, ministers have still said that Johnson will obey the Bennextension law.

The Johnson deal is very similar to one considered but never voted on in early 2018 about which Theresa May said in parliament "No UK Prime Minister could ever agree with" and which Johnson said in the Daily Telegraph was "little short of an attempt [by the EU] to annex Northern Ireland". Nonetheless now Johnson owns this deal. In order to leave on 31/10 if the commons rejects it, Johnson would relinquish a political victory ("I got the EU to re-open negotiations and to ditch the nondemocratic backstop. Go me.") in order to preserve a promise to leave on 31/10/19. He would need to regard the political capital invested in the latter promise to be greater than that now invested in having procured a "new deal". It is far from obvious to me that such a ranking would be correct. Moreover, Johnson regularly referred to any delay past 31/10/19 as "another pointless delay". But he would now be able to say that a delay had a substantial point: to finalise his deal of great and unmatched wisdom.
 
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I don't think the deal will pass as it will make Northern Ireland the border gatekeepers. It just isn't practical, it doesn't have the infrastructure nor the manpower*. In any case it seems to contravene Section 55 of the Trade & Tarriffs Act in making it a separate taxation territory. It'll continue to be the gateway for foreign criminals, terrorists and smugglers who want to come into the UK via the backdoor (arriving via Dublin).

In addition, the fanatical UDF and UDV, together with the DUP will resist wanting to be seen as part of a united Ireland, which the common trade area, together with a common EU regulatory framework, will reinforce.

No wonder Sinn Fein are happy, they love the idea of anything that weakens UK control over Ireland.

*Imagine the confusion of having to designate your exports as either for NI (no tariff) or for the Irish Republic/EU (tariff). For the NI designated goods a tariff will have to be paid in advance anyway - to satisfy the EU - and then claimed back in retrospect. However, in the meantime it still has to apply UK VAT for HMRC. So the exporter pays a tariff and as it is liable for VAT has to mark up the goods by 20%, whereas the non-UK designated goods are at the lower price but with an added tariff.

So you pay your tariff then claim it back. You then have to pay your VAT cancelling some.much or all of it out.
 
Vixen said:
In any case it seems to contravene Section 55 of the Trade & Tarriffs Act in making it a separate taxation territory.
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I must confess, I don't see how that objection can work. If Parliament chooses to accept the agreement then it's a fundamental principle of the constitution that it can't be bound not to do so by any previous Act of Parliament, so any hypothetical Withdrawal Agreement Act would simply supersede the earlier legislation. The courts will no doubt have a headache unravelling all that, expecially if the bill gets rushed through and doesn't get proper scrutiny, but I don't see that as an obstacle to Parliament accepting and implementing the deal.

Dave
 
Dave Rogers said:
I must confess, I don't see how that objection can work. If Parliament chooses to accept the agreement then it's a fundamental principle of the constitution that it can't be bound not to do so by any previous Act of Parliament, so any hypothetical Withdrawal Agreement Act would simply supersede the earlier legislation. The courts will no doubt have a headache unravelling all that, expecially if the bill gets rushed through and doesn't get proper scrutiny, but I don't see that as an obstacle to Parliament accepting and implementing the deal.



Dave
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Yeah, that sort of thing happens all the time, either the new legislation renders the old moot or changes it.
 
Darat said:
Now the SNP has advertised that all it is interested in is using its support of a no deal, deal or 2nd referendum (they aren't concerned which) to force another Scottish referendum I think we can forget about the silliness of "government of national unity". Boris just needs to offer the SNP a legally binding 2nd indy referendum and his work is done and we are leaving as is the clear legal position on Halloween.
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Where did you get that nonsense from?

Sturgeon said the other day they won't support any Tory government.
 
Vixen said:
*Imagine the confusion of having to designate your exports as either for NI (no tariff) or for the Irish Republic/EU (tariff). For the NI designated goods a tariff will have to be paid in advance anyway - to satisfy the EU - and then claimed back in retrospect. However, in the meantime it still has to apply UK VAT for HMRC. So the exporter pays a tariff and as it is liable for VAT has to mark up the goods by 20%, whereas the non-UK designated goods are at the lower price but with an added tariff.

So you pay your tariff then claim it back. You then have to pay your VAT cancelling some.much or all of it out.
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Why for VAT is sending goods from Aberdeen to Belfast any different to sending them to Bury?
 
Lothian said:
Why for VAT is sending goods from Aberdeen to Belfast any different to sending them to Bury?
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NI will apply EU VAT rates not UK VAT rates. If they differ in the future. HMRC will collect the EU VAT from the Aberdeen seller if it goes to NI but the UK VAT if it goes to Bury.
 
Darat said:
At their conference. I'll see if I can find a report with her words in it.

Eta: Sturgeon to request fresh independence referendum 'within weeks'

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...cottish-independence-referendum-within-weeks?

But I would say this to Jeremy Corbyn, or any Westminster leader who is looking to the SNP for support, if you don’t accept Scotland’s right to choose at our choosing – don’t even bother picking up the phone to me.”
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Which is quite some way off what you originally said.
 
Francesca R said:
NI will apply EU VAT rates not UK VAT rates. If they differ in the future. HMRC will collect the EU VAT from the Aberdeen seller if it goes to NI but the UK VAT if it goes to Bury.
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I only had a quick read of the new agreement

Quick nerdy point: There is no such thing as EU VAT rates. VAT rates are all set domestically. The EU decides whether some goods and services are subject to tax or exempt but not how much tax is charged.

It will be possible to have different rules in the UK mainland and UKNI in this foolish new world but the assumption that the tax will be decided by the customers location as opposed to the seller's is ....well an assumption. It would be far simpler to use the seller location for Uk to UK sales and my money would be in that.

Either way it would need some drastic changes to Uk VAT law. Day one sales to Belfast and Bury would be treated the same. Similarly with sales to Dublin and Dallas.
 
Francesca R said:
NI will apply EU VAT rates not UK VAT rates. If they differ in the future. HMRC will collect the EU VAT from the Aberdeen seller if it goes to NI but the UK VAT if it goes to Bury.
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AIUI it'll only apply EU VAT on goods designated for cross-border export to the EU. On the UK (NI) designated goods it cannot be VAT-free because of the VAT Act which says all companies registered for VAT in the UK (and NI is still in the UK) are subject to the Act.
 
Lothian said:
I only had a quick read of the new agreement

Quick nerdy point: There is no such thing as EU VAT rates. VAT rates are all set domestically. The EU decides whether some goods and services are subject to tax or exempt but not how much tax is charged.

It will be possible to have different rules in the UK mainland and UKNI in this foolish new world but the assumption that the tax will be decided by the customers location as opposed to the seller's is ....well an assumption. It would be far simpler to use the seller location for Uk to UK sales and my money would be in that.

Either way it would need some drastic changes to Uk VAT law. Day one sales to Belfast and Bury would be treated the same. Similarly with sales to Dublin and Dallas.
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No it wouldn't. Sales to Dublin and Dallas would be VAT-free, assuming their invoice address is abroad and the goods/services are being delivered there.
 
Vixen said:
No it wouldn't. Sales to Dublin and Dallas would be VAT-free, assuming their invoice address is abroad and the goods/services are being delivered there.
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Yes but you wouldn't treat them differently from each other. Just as you wouldn't treat sales to Belfast and Bury differently from each other. I understand that sales to Dallas and Bury are treated differently.

I was confused by your post suggesting confusion with VAT. I don't see any VAT change from present. (other that sales to the EU now being treated like sales to the ROW.)
 
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