Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

[Information Analyst]

We can hopefully all agree that not all people supporting leave are xenophobic racists. However those that are not are enabling and lending their support to those that are. See the latest from Brexit leader Arron Banks

**** says ******* thing. Shock news!

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

The problem for leavers is that Labour's idea of "Credible Leave" will mean staying in the Single Market and Customs Union - and almost everyone, leavers included, agree that would be worse than remain.

Since that's basically what the leave campaign promised 3 years ago, it should be clear that the problem here isn't with a potential Labour deal, but with May pushing the idea of "Leave" so far towards the "hard" end that people have become radicalised around the issue and now wouldn't accept what they actually voted for in the first place.

 

[ceptimus]

Scotland was still 38% Leave. So was 44% of NI. More people in England voted Remain than all the voters - Remain or Leave - in Scotland, Wales, and NI put together.

...and by constituency by party:
Labour: 148 Leave, 84 Remain

Conservative: 247 Leave, 80 Remain”


I don't have the figures for SNP, LibDem, etc. but I assume they would each be 100% Remain.


It must be worrying for Labour, who are going into the next election on a remain ticket. But perhaps they believe that many of their voters in those 148 constituencies have changed their minds, or that they will still vote Labour in an election even though they still support leaving.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Since that's basically what the leave campaign promised 3 years ago, it should be clear that the problem here isn't with a potential Labour deal, but with May pushing the idea of "Leave" so far towards the "hard" end that people have become radicalised around the issue and now wouldn't accept what they actually voted for in the first place.

May was definitely a big, public part of the process but I'm in no doubt it's what the likes of Banks, Farrage & the ERG planned from the start. I'm less sure if it's actually what Farrage wants or if his plan was to campaign on Norway+ then agitate for crash out on the basis that it wouldn't happen and he could carry profiting from the division. If Brexit happens he's yesterday's man.

 

[Information Analyst]

...and by constituency by party:
Labour: 148 Leave, 84 Remain

Conservative: 247 Leave, 80 Remain”


I don't have the figures for SNP, LibDem, etc. but I assume they would each be 100% Remain.


It must be worrying for Labour, who are going into the next election on a remain ticket. But perhaps they believe that many of their voters in those 148 constituencies have changed their minds, or that they will still vote Labour in an election even though they still support leaving.

We've done this to death already. The vast majority of Labour voters support Remain. Voters in Labour MP constituencies that returned a Leave majority were mostly either those who never voted for Labour anyway, or never previously voted at all. Far more actual Labour Remain supporters have switched allegiance to Remain-supporting parties than Labour Leave supporters have defected to Brexit Ltd, UKIP, or the Tories.

 

[The Don]

It must be worrying for Labour, who are going into the next election on a remain ticket. But perhaps they believe that many of their voters in those 148 constituencies have changed their minds, or that they will still vote Labour in an election even though they still support leaving.

Why ?

That supposes that everyone is making their decision based solely on a party's Brexit intentions and not based upon other policies or even blind party loyalty.

In the case of a Labour MP with a smallish majority in a constituency which voted marginally to Leave, the majority of Leave voters are likely to support the Conservatives or Brexit parties, there is little or no chance of a Labour candidate attracting their support regardless of Labour's. OTOH, the majority of their support likely voted Remain so they stand to lose a large chunk of that to the LibDems or if those voters simply stay at home.

Indeed, if the enthusiastic Leave vote splits between Conservative and Brexit Party, a Labour candidate could do well standing on a "Negotiate a different deal and have a referendum" platform because it would attract:

• Labour voting Remain supporters
• Leave supporters who don't want no-deal
• Labour Leave supporters who would vote for anything wearing a red rosette

 

[The Don]

May was definitely a big, public part of the process but I'm in no doubt it's what the likes of Banks, Farrage & the ERG planned from the start. I'm less sure if it's actually what Farrage wants or if his plan was to campaign on Norway+ then agitate for crash out on the basis that it wouldn't happen and he could carry profiting from the division. If Brexit happens he's yesterday's man.

I suppose it depends on how it all plays out further on down the road.

He could just "retire" from politics, move to the US and become a talking head on US right wing media. For sure he wouldn't have UK political influence but then again he'd have what I suspect he's always wanted, adulation and easy money.

He could continue to agitate. Whatever Brexit we end up with, he could insist that he personally could have done far, far, better. If Brexit turns out to be a fiasco there may be a lot of Brexit enthusiasts who abandon the Conservatives for their inept and wishy-washy handling of Brexit and instead vote Brexit Party. If Brexit results in Scottish independence, it's likely that the rest of the UK would return a right-leaning government in perpetuity and he could be an influential member of a right wing coalition government.

 

[Darat]

There is talk of a Government of National Unity to prevent a no-deal.



The problem is that the largest opposition party is Labour and Labour's leader Jeremy Corbyn insists that he is the Prime Minister if there is a GNU.



He is unacceptable to many of the other prospective members of a GNU, primarily the LibDem and ex-Conservative members.



As it stands, this means that any GNU is dead in the water.

The problem is that the smaller parties insist Jeremy Corbyn not being the acting PM....

 

[ceptimus]

We've done this to death already. The vast majority of Labour voters support Remain. Voters in Labour MP constituencies that returned a Leave majority were mostly either those who never voted for Labour anyway, or never previously voted at all. Far more actual Labour Remain supporters have switched allegiance to Remain-supporting parties than Labour Leave supporters have defected to Brexit Ltd, UKIP, or the Tories.

In a general election, it's not only the Labour voters that vote. In those Labour constituencies that voted Leave in the referendum, how do you think those same voters will vote in the next general election? If you're a Labour supporter, are you hoping that the leave voters will:

• stay at home and not vote?
• vote Labour anyway?
• split their vote between the Conservative and Brexit parties?

 

[Belgian thought]

Article 50 is explicit about it. Time rans out, Exit happens. No amount of legislation in exiting country will change it. And for extension, every remaining country has to agree with it Which is increasingly unlikely...

I thought that the EU parliament voted by a large majority in September to allow an extension should the UK request it.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/09/18...rliament-on-brexit-as-meps-vote-on-article-50

Has this position changed?

 

[The Don]

In a general election, it's not only the Labour voters that vote. In those Labour constituencies that voted Leave in the referendum, how do you think those same voters will vote in the next general election? If you're a Labour supporter, are you hoping that the leave voters will:

• stay at home and not vote?
• vote Labour anyway?
• split their vote between the Conservative and Brexit parties?

Likely it will be all of the above together with some (many ?) people who voted Leave have now changed their mind. Polls have been consistently showing a majority in favour of Remain for a long time.

More importantly, those people who are in favour of Remain need to turn out and vote.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

If Brexit results in Scottish independence, it's likely that the rest of the UK would return a right-leaning government in perpetuity and he could be an influential member of a right wing coalition government.

This, for me, is probably the most worrying prospect of Brexit. Given that Scotland voted to remain in the UK based in part on the UK remaining in the EU it's far from unthinkable that Scotland would leave the UK and join the EU should Brexit happen. And without Scotland, the politics of the UK would shift dramatically to the right - and I think they need to shift to the left as is.

 

[Vixen]

There is nothing in the main stream news about EU plans regarding disclosure of income and hedge fund bets as a driving force behind Brexit for those in power. Is it just a CT?

It's just a conspiracy theory.

In short, there is no evidence that the hedge funds that have backed Johnson’s election campaign have “millions of pounds” of speculative bets on no-deal Brexit. They have millions of pounds of speculative bets on U.K. companies, yes, but that is simply business as usual. So this is yet another a tin-foil-hat conspiracy theory.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2019/09/29/the-mythical-bets-on-no-deal-brexit/

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

One thing has occurred to me - the 19th wasn't a good choice of deadline for the Benn Act, because it's a Saturday. That means that if Johnson defies it, MPs aren't actually going to do anything about it until the 21st, which gives them 10 days to sort out a vote of no confidence, forming a new government, and getting an extension. The last shouldn't be a problem, since the EU are currently working on sorting all that out from their end, but the first takes time and will undoubtedly see Johnson trying his best to obstruct it, and the second looks like it's going to be an epic ***********.

 

[Vixen]

One thing has occurred to me - the 19th wasn't a good choice of deadline for the Benn Act, because it's a Saturday. That means that if Johnson defies it, MPs aren't actually going to do anything about it until the 21st, which gives them 10 days to sort out a vote of no confidence, forming a new government, and getting an extension. The last shouldn't be a problem, since the EU are currently working on sorting all that out from their end, but the first takes time and will undoubtedly see Johnson trying his best to obstruct it, and the second looks like it's going to be an epic ***********.

They are sitting on Saturday 19 Oct 2019.

MPs will be called to Parliament for a special Saturday sitting in a decisive day for the future of Brexit.

Parliament will meet on 19 October after a crunch EU summit - seen as the last chance for the UK and EU to agree a deal ahead of 31 October deadline.

If a deal is agreed, Boris Johnson will ask MPs to approve it - but if not, a range of options could be presented.

The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg says these could include leaving without a deal, and halting Brexit altogether.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49984367

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Okay, I'm wrong: twitter.com/i/web/status/1181830124985081862

Whatever happens, deal or no deal, govt will call MPs to Westminster for a special sitting on Saturday Oct 19th - could be decisive day in Parliament in aftermath of EU summit

 

[Information Analyst]

In a general election, it's not only the Labour voters that vote. In those Labour constituencies that voted Leave in the referendum, how do you think those same voters will vote in the next general election? If you're a Labour supporter, are you hoping that the leave voters will:

• stay at home and not vote?
• vote Labour anyway?
• split their vote between the Conservative and Brexit parties?

You spectacularly missing the point is your own problem.

 

[Information Analyst]

It's just a conspiracy theory.

In short, there is no evidence that the hedge funds that have backed Johnson’s election campaign have “millions of pounds” of speculative bets on no-deal Brexit. They have millions of pounds of speculative bets on U.K. companies, yes, but that is simply business as usual. So this is yet another a tin-foil-hat conspiracy theory.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2019/09/29/the-mythical-bets-on-no-deal-brexit/

Well, they would say that, wouldn't they?

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1181814412400906241

Exclusive with @elliotttimes

Five Cabinet ministers are understood to be on a No 10 resignation watchlist if the party pushes for a no-deal Brexit

They are Nicky Morgan, Julian Smith, Robert Buckland, Matt Hancock and Geoffrey Cox

Ministers are in open revolt over Dom Cummings and his push for no-deal

One told The Times: 'Cabinet will set the strategy not unelected officials.

'If this is an attempt to do that then it will fail. We are not a Cabinet of sock puppets and nodding dogs’

Another Cabinet minister told The Times they would find it 'very, very hard' to stay in Government if it campaigned for no-deal at election

They said a 'very large number' of Tory MPs will also quit the party

Worryingly for ministers Boris Johnson yesterday failed to inform his Cabinet about his crunch call with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, just half an hour earlier

He instead alluded to it vaguely, saying that a 'moment of compression' on Brexit was coming

Article embedded in first tweet.

 

[Klimax]

I thought that the EU parliament voted by a large majority in September to allow an extension should the UK request it.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/09/18...rliament-on-brexit-as-meps-vote-on-article-50

Has this position changed?

They'd have to change or amend directly Article 50, because Extension is up to heads of governments, not MEPs. There's no mention of that being changed.