-
Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more
Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...
- Thread starter Archie Gemmill Goal
- Start date
-
- Tags
- brexit
- Status
Aha. Well, the numbers allow us to speculate, so take this with a shovelfull of salt:
UKIP member shrinkage went to Brexit party (larger share) and the Conservatives (small portion).
The Conservatives lost 25,000 members net, some also joined in the meantime. Those who joined were predominantly no-deal Brexitards. Those who left were either those who made the world better by passing away, but there was a non-zero number of those who quit, because they oppose party Brexit policy.
It stands to reason ~10% of the party skewes towards no-deal Brexit as a result of the said shifts. The number could be greater, theoretically up to 20% of the entire party but that's unlikely. It could be smaller, but I reckon it's not smaller than 5% of the party. I speculate the number is about 10% of the votes, if it wasn't for the membership changes due to Brexit, the party might not be 60-30 for no-deal Brexit with 10% not sure, but rather 50-40 with 10% not sure.
That's a rough, indeed a ballpark estimate, the best I can do with the info given. It's a pity they don't report membership data, I'd be interested to see how many people quit, how many died and how many joined in the 2016-2019 period and compare that to 2013-2016 period. That would give us deep insight, especially if it was compiled by month.
McHrozni
Yeah, that's a ratio more along the lines of what I was expecting. I expected 2-3 million members, certainly no less than a million and 5 million wouldn't surprise me in the least.
Less than 150 thousand members, indeed just 124 thousand members in a country of well over 60 million for the largest party the national parliament is tiny.
McHrozni
The Brexit party didn't exist in 2018
Hm, right - it's the 2018 dynamic.
That probably means the largest shares of the drop in UKIP membership were to Conservatives and people no longer being associated with any political party (in no particular order). This slightly strengthens my speculation about why are the positions of Conservative party members as insane as they are.
McHrozni
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2006
- Messages
- 54,796
Exactly they will see rationing brought back somehow!
An anonymous Tory MP summing up the whole farce:
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1141314760388108289?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Lothian
should be banned
Latest votes
Collosal twat – 143
Rhyming slang twat– 54
Scottish twat– 51
Comprehensive school twat– 38
Tries to hide he is a twat– 27 - KNOCKED OUT
Collosal twat – 143
Rhyming slang twat– 54
Scottish twat– 51
Comprehensive school twat– 38
Tries to hide he is a twat– 27 - KNOCKED OUT
Klimax
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
Of all he options, the best one got eliminated. (Apparently too much brain to be leader of Tories)
Boris in a landslide, snap election in which the Tories get a healthy majority, leave with no deal on 31 October. Economic crisis and end of the NHS as we know it.
Seems like I chose the wrong year to give up sniffing glue...
Seems like I chose the wrong year to give up sniffing glue...
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2006
- Messages
- 54,796
Sounds pretty optimistic really
Hellbound
Merchant of Doom
Learn how to make bathtub meth. Better than glue, and you can sell the excess to buy stale bread on the black market.
Lothian
should be banned
Perhaps there is a God, oh you weren't being literal.
I know you became Pete Townshend after our last avatar bet (and I became a plate of liver+bacon+onions in gravy, just for fun ... mmmmm) but here's another:
If Johnson wins and calls a snap election I reckon the Cons won't get a healthy majority ( an absolute majority of, say, 15).
If you're up for it and lose then you become Keith Moon for a month. If I lose I'll serve whatever sentence you decree, for a month.
P.J. Denyer
Penultimate Amazing
Back to remaindered copies of "The Victorians" then. It's very absorbing.
The Atheist
Psychopath
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2006
- Messages
- 38,090
The one thing I've always admired about Poms is their ability to make dry humour in the midst of a crisis.
Superb example - cheers.
(You're going to need plenty of it in the next few years.)
Boris! Boris! Boris!
Turn back to Thatcher, Churchill, Disraeli or Pitt the Elder and I can't find a time a supreme BS artist and all-round over-entitled twat like Johnson would have been considered PM material.
Pitt the Younger wasn't so bad either, though Pitt the Embryo lacked spine.
I'm pretty sure Hellbound is doing the converse of me with the Trump threads. Morbidly wondering which will do more damage to our respective countries. I was saying to a Kiwi on Sunday, that I think New Zealand is the largest anglophone country to not be going politically insane (Canada seems to have a rather messy corruption issue at the moment).
The Atheist
Psychopath
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2006
- Messages
- 38,090
*Groan*
I wouldn't get your hopes up - the current situation only came about because Jacinda's the most-attractive MP we've ever had and Winston Peters had a chip the size of a giant redwood on his shoulders at the ruling - and largest - party. He is always one to carry a grudge, so our supposed lack of insanity is down to coincidence that is unlikely to be repeated.
Not to mention, our government has shown itself to have enormous feet of clay and are just maintaining the status quo, while vastly increasing the military budget to appease said Winston.
Why yes, he was named after Churchill.
The insanity is there, just better hidden.
- Status