Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[lomiller]

My analysis is simple
A no deal Brexit is dead in the water due to numbers in parliament..
Brussels will not renegotiate the Theresa May deal Brexit.
That deal will never get the votes.
Therefore Brexit is in a state of permanent hiatus while business as usual.

This looks like modal logic 101 to me.

ETA: This looks like a huge victory for the EU federation, Britain shoots both feet, no further wagging of the finger needed to other dissident states.

Does there still need to be a vote at all or can the PM just wait and let a no-deal Brexit happen? I though that was the point of the motion that was just voted down, to require an actual vote before no-deal Brexit?

 

[Garrison]

Boris seems to have decided that actually answering questions is beneath him, of course that didn't work so well for May at the last GE.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Boris is being clever (Well his team are) He is prone to saying the wrong thing and making a fool of himself.
By keeping his head down he can only do his campaign some good, plus he is so far ahead he doesn't need to do anything at the moment.

What his team need to do is persuade some of the MPs supporting him to vote for Javid and make sure it's him that Boris is up against when the party members get to vote.
there is no way the majority of Tory party members will vote for the son of a Pakistani Muslim immigrant over an old Etonian.

 

[a_unique_person]

Amazing to think a politician can get elected by saying little as he possibly can. By offering nothing, justifying nothing, being nothing.

 

[Garrison]

Amazing to think a politician can get elected by saying little as he possibly can. By offering nothing, justifying nothing, being nothing.

Well bear in mind that at the moment he is only subject to the scrutiny of the sort of people to whom going to the right school and having the right accent counts for far more than policies or principles.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Well bear in mind that at the moment he is only subject to the scrutiny of the sort of people to whom going to the right school and having the right accent counts for far more than policies or principles.

What makes you think it will be any different when the party members get to vote?

 

[Delphic Oracle]

What makes you think it will be any different when the party members get to vote?

I took him to be describing the members of the party who will be voting.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Fair enough I thought he meant just the MPs.

 

[Garrison]

I took him to be describing the members of the party who will be voting.

Yep

Fair enough I thought he meant just the MPs.

I think his fellow Conservative MPs are far less enthusiastic, probably because they have actually met him...

 

[Trebuchet]

Amazing to think a politician can get elected by saying little as he possibly can. By offering nothing, justifying nothing, being nothing.

Here in the USofA, we elected* a non-politician who produced an absolute torrent of words which mostly meant absolutely nothing.


*"Elected" can be interesting. Trump won the presidency via the Electoral College, despite losing the popular vote. BoJo may become PM by getting a majority of a few thousand Tories. Which is worse?

Then again, that's only happening for Boris because May resigned. If Trump resigns, Pence becomes Pres automatically, because he was voted for by a few hundred delegates at a convention.

 

[McHrozni]

Already recycled I'm afraid.......

A pity, but understandable.

Poor Polly.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

Does there still need to be a vote at all or can the PM just wait and let a no-deal Brexit happen? I though that was the point of the motion that was just voted down, to require an actual vote before no-deal Brexit?

The motion was to require the PM to ask for an extension and revoke article 50 if he didn't get one, if the no deal Brexit became imminent.

PM could always just wait and let no deal happen due to inaction. Theresa May could do so, if she defied the parliamentary vote that instructed her to do so. That would be the end of her career, possibly freedom, probably the Tory party and who knows what else, but it was within her power to do so.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

The motion was to require the PM to ask for an extension and revoke article 50 if he didn't get one, if the no deal Brexit became imminent.

PM could always just wait and let no deal happen due to inaction. Theresa May could do so, if she defied the parliamentary vote that instructed her to do so. That would be the end of her career, possibly freedom, probably the Tory party and who knows what else, but it was within her power to do so.

McHrozni

I think that the Conservative Party leadership changes this dynamic significantly. Almost all of the candidates are committed to leaving on 31 October, some say they would look for a deal beforehand and others have no-deal and Plan A. A number have mentioned proroguing parliament as a means of achieving it.

No-deal seems to have 35%-40% support overall and 70%+ support withing the Conservative Party. IMO crashing out with a no deal wouldn't negatively impact the new leader's career, standing within the party or electoral prospects (any losses due to moderate Tories voting LibDem would be replaced by UKIP/Brexit Party returns).

 

[McHrozni]

I think that the Conservative Party leadership changes this dynamic significantly. Almost all of the candidates are committed to leaving on 31 October, some say they would look for a deal beforehand and others have no-deal and Plan A. A number have mentioned proroguing parliament as a means of achieving it.

No-deal seems to have 35%-40% support overall and 70%+ support withing the Conservative Party. IMO crashing out with a no deal wouldn't negatively impact the new leader's career, standing within the party or electoral prospects (any losses due to moderate Tories voting LibDem would be replaced by UKIP/Brexit Party returns).

Of course it does. There is no legal requirement to do anything right now, a new PM is able to use dirty tricks to get the no deal through.

I reckon the no deal will retain up to 25% support in the long run, but it will shittle down from the 35-40% support you mention as reality bites. It's important to keep reminding everyone they voted for this:

(it should be fine with rules 4 and 5)

And not the "it's still not as bad as the Blitz in all aspects" they'll be getting.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Of course it does. There is no legal requirement to do anything right now, a new PM is able to use dirty tricks to get the no deal through.

I reckon the no deal will retain up to 25% support in the long run, but it will shittle down from the 35-40% support you mention as reality bites. It's important to keep reminding everyone they voted for this:

Who's going to to the reminding ?

The Murdoch-owned outlets sure as heck aren't going to, neither are The Torygraphy, Daily Fail or the Daily Express which leaves the Grauniad, Mirror and Independent/I which are read by about seven people who are in any case implacably opposed to Brexit.

The BBC and other media outlets are obliged to present a "balanced" view which means that pro-Brexit propaganda will be given at least equal weight to the truth.

I wish I shared your optimism, but I think that a continual message of "it's all the EU's fault" will find a lot of traction and harden opinions, given that the alternative would be for people to admit they made the wrong decision.

And not the "it's still not as bad as the Blitz in all aspects" they'll be getting.

McHrozni

Potayto / potahto

 

[McHrozni]

Who's going to to the reminding ?

The Murdoch-owned outlets sure as heck aren't going to, neither are The Torygraphy, Daily Fail or the Daily Express which leaves the Grauniad, Mirror and Independent/I which are read by about seven people who are in any case implacably opposed to Brexit.

The BBC and other media outlets are obliged to present a "balanced" view which means that pro-Brexit propaganda will be given at least equal weight to the truth.

I wish I shared your optimism, but I think that a continual message of "it's all the EU's fault" will find a lot of traction and harden opinions, given that the alternative would be for people to admit they made the wrong decision.

Look, here's the thing - Brexiteers promised, over and over again, EU will agree to British demands because "EU needs the UK more than UK needs the EU", therefore EU will yield if enough pressure is applied.

This is a matter of public record and the reasoning behind the no deal brinkmanship. Once it is proven to be false, if you claim "it's all EU fault", you're already admitting you were completely wrong. No amount of pressure forced the EU to yield, even though you promised it.

From such small openings minds are changed. Not quickly and not all minds mind you, I reckon 15-25% will remain convinced it's the EU's fault because they refused to yield before the obvious UK invincible supremacy and choose to make the poor little bullied UK into roadkill, but enough will change their minds to make a few real changes in the UK reality. It may take a couple of years in a no deal scenario and I agree the first couple of months, possibly years, may well be horrific.

Just keep reminding everyone what they voted for at Brexit. Flyers under door reminding everyone what the promises of Brexit really were sound like a good start.

Potayto / potahto

Yea, not everyone is like you, with a million pounds in retirement funds and no dependents you know? You can afford a no deal Brexit, but what about the bloke in Yorkshire whose plant closed and is out of a job because of Brexit and has to sell his kids to medical experiments?

If he's reminded the promise of Brexit was "no downside, only a considerable upside" and now he's even worse off than before due to Brexit, if he's reminded the story changed from "we have all the cards" to "EU is bullying us and we have no cards", chances are he'll convert. Many will, I think - not all, but you don't need all. You need plurality, majority tops.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

If he's reminded the promise of Brexit was "no downside, only a considerable upside" and now he's even worse off than before due to Brexit, if he's reminded the story changed from "we have all the cards" to "EU is bullying us and we have no cards", chances are he'll convert. Many will, I think - not all, but you don't need all. You need plurality, majority tops.

McHrozni

I wish I shared your opinion of the electorate, that they are willing to review their opinions in light of new information - I simply don't think that this is the case.

IMO the vast majority of Brexiteers are now emotionally invested in their decision in a big way. They've been called idiots and bigots by me, and people like me, for three years now and there's absolutely no way that they're now going to say "Gosh, those Remainers were right all along, I was a mug to be convinced by the lies". Instead they're going to do what people do - double down and get further entrenched in their views.

To be honest, if the boot were on the other foot, I'm not sure that the situation wouldn't be reversed. I'm heavily emotionally invested in the Remain cause. In the unlikely event that a consistent and coherent case could be made for Brexit, it's likely that I would find some way to disregard it.

 

[McHrozni]

I wish I shared your opinion of the electorate, that they are willing to review their opinions in light of new information - I simply don't think that this is the case.

IMO the vast majority of Brexiteers are now emotionally invested in their decision in a big way. They've been called idiots and bigots by me, and people like me, for three years now and there's absolutely no way that they're now going to say "Gosh, those Remainers were right all along, I was a mug to be convinced by the lies". Instead they're going to do what people do - double down and get further entrenched in their views.

Indeed, a majority of them will remain convinced. But not all, nowhere near that - I reckon about 15-25%, probably about 20%, of the electorate will remain convinced "it would be even worse without Brexit". Most of the rest will be in the "I don't know" category, claiming they never were for Brexit at all. Humans cope in different ways and there are lots of ways to deny you were wrong. Believing the opposite in spite of evidence is just the one that recieves the most attention.

To be honest, if the boot were on the other foot, I'm not sure that the situation wouldn't be reversed. I'm heavily emotionally invested in the Remain cause. In the unlikely event that a consistent and coherent case could be made for Brexit, it's likely that I would find some way to disregard it.

If you go through a no deal Brexit and enter in the land of happy prosperity while EU stagnates and implements dictatorship, I'll become a Brexiteer-equivalent too.

I'll also become a Flat Earther, if it can be proven Earth is flat and all the evidence we have for the roundness of Earth (including flight plans working with spherical mathematics but not linear ones) is indeed atmospheric lensing and particles and distortion or whatever.

The odds for either are about the same.

McHrozni

 

[Samson]

New Zealand has an option to become a state of Australia.
This could be deemed NZentrance.
Australia despises New Zealand for a range of reasons, defence, and so on, and is expelling New Zealanders with no cause, requires passports and no criminal convictions for New Zealanders to visit.
All above needs fact checking but is roughly correct.

Human nature dictates that Britons will be treated appallingly by Europe after Brexit. It is incomprehensible that this death wish is so close to fruition.

 

[Klimax]

Apparently full destruction of everything is acceptable...

Tory members happy to trash UK economy, break up union, and destroy their own party to get Brexit, poll finds