Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[McHrozni]

Sadly party tribalism is such that the motion is likely to fail IMO as no Conservative would dare vote for it for fear of losing the whip/

They don't have to vote for it. If Labour, SNP, LibDem ChUK, Cymru and Greens gather all their strength they have 301 votes. All they need to do is to get 38 abstinentions from Tories, DUP and independents and the motion passes.

The calculation above counts all independents as Tory Brexiteers, near as I can tell they're more likely to support the motion than oppose it. If all threw their weight behind the motion you just need 6 abstinentions.

Realistically you need more because you won't have all of your MPs present and voting for the motion, but the same goes for Tories. I reckon twenty or so abstinentions with none voting in favor should be enough, if you could get forty that's plenty and should be enough no matter what Theresa May, BJ or anyone else does or says.

McHrozni

 

[Puppycow]

News update: Labour plan to put forward a motion tomorrow blocking a no-deal Brexit and effectively taking the matter out of the hands of the government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48598760

Considering Andrea Leadsom, Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab have all said they would leave 31 October even if there was no deal will have them spitting nails.

I expect the HoC will be very lively tomorrow.

This seems prudent although it would also take away any leverage the new PM has to negotiate a "better" deal than May's deal. (Assuming that the EU doesn't want a no-deal Brexit either).

 

[The Don]

This seems prudent although it would also take away any leverage the new PM has to negotiate a "better" deal than May's deal. (Assuming that the EU doesn't want a no-deal Brexit either).

....and assuming that the threat of a no-deal actually provides leverage to get that deal - as opposed to suggesting that the UK are absolutist fundamentalists and that any form of negotiation is simply a waste of time.

 

[ponderingturtle]

War of Spanish succession was a war between houses of Burbon (Capet) and Habsburg about who should control Spain. Yes, it also abolished what remained of the kingdom of Aragon, because they sided with the losing side (Habsburgs). It was not, in any shape or form, a war for Aragonese independence or the start of the unified Spain.

It represented a shift in sovereign and hence sovereignty. Trying to impose modern ideas of sovereign nation states before they came about is pretty silly.

 

[Tolls]

Yes.
No deal doesn't actually provide any leverage at all (except with elements within the UK).

As with everything else Brexit related, it's a complete scam.

 

[Klimax]

This seems prudent although it would also take away any leverage the new PM has to negotiate a "better" deal than May's deal. (Assuming that the EU doesn't want a no-deal Brexit either).

There is no leverage whatsoever. There never was any. There is none now. There won't be any in future.

 

[Dave Rogers]

No deal doesn't actually provide any leverage at all (except with elements within the UK).

I've always seen it as the political equivalent of the "Nobody move or the ****** gets it!" scene from Blazing Saddles.

Dave

 

[Craig B]

War of Spanish succession was a war between houses of Burbon (Capet) and Habsburg about who should control Spain. Yes, it also abolished what remained of the kingdom of Aragon, because they sided with the losing side (Habsburgs). It was not, in any shape or form, a war for Aragonese independence or the start of the unified Spain.

Spain de facto unified back in 1469, with the marriage of Isabella of Castillie and Ferdinand of Aragon. The country remained a union of kingdoms, with Castillie (itself a union of the kingdoms of Castillie and Leon) getting the upper hand most of the time, until Castillian institutions sided with the winning side after the death of Charels II of Spain. In the ensuing war France (& friends) prevailed over Austria (& friends) and Aragonese institutions got the shaft.

It wasn't some sort of a war of unification or anything. Independent institutions were collateral damage.

McHrozni

That doesn't make sense. The war resulted in the destruction of the crown of Aragon's political institutions and subsequent imposition of Castilian ones. It is called a war of succession, but it resulted in unification and that was not a peaceful operation. The unification dates from the abolition of the Corts. As in Britain the two Crowns had a single monarch before that. But the unification came when the legislatures were united. Scotland and England weren't united in 1603, but in 1707.
See wiki Crown of Aragon^WP

The Crown of Aragon and its institutions were abolished in 1716 only after the War of the Spanish Succession (1701–1714) by the Nueva Planta decrees, issued by Philip V of Spain. The old regime was swept away, the administration was subsumed into the Castilian administration, the lands of the Crown were united formally with those of Castile to legally form a single state, the kingdom of Spain, as it moved towards a centralized government under the new Bourbon dynasty.​

 

[ponderingturtle]

I've always seen it as the political equivalent of the "Nobody move or the ****** gets it!" scene from Blazing Saddles.

Dave

Only with out the EU being the common clay of the new west.

 

[McHrozni]

That doesn't make sense. The war resulted in the destruction of the crown of Aragon's political institutions and subsequent imposition of Castilian ones. It is called a war of succession, but it resulted in unification and that was not a peaceful operation. The unification dates from the abolition of the Corts. As in Britain the two Crowns had a single monarch before that. But the unification came when the legislatures were united. Scotland and England weren't united in 1603, but in 1707.
See wiki Crown of Aragon^WP

The Crown of Aragon and its institutions were abolished in 1716 only after the War of the Spanish Succession (1701–1714) by the Nueva Planta decrees, issued by Philip V of Spain. The old regime was swept away, the administration was subsumed into the Castilian administration, the lands of the Crown were united formally with those of Castile to legally form a single state, the kingdom of Spain, as it moved towards a centralized government under the new Bourbon dynasty.​

It resulted in a centralization of what was already a single state for over 200 years at that point.

McHrozni

 

[Wudang]

It will take “six to eight months” to build up supplies of medicines for a no-deal Brexit, a leaked cabinet note says – undermining Boris Johnson’s threat to crash out of the EU on 31 October.

Source:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...Cf2ljJBEkBAkNphvq3K_tvxEt_nAE5YxYOAcyFzzHFMFM

 

[Dave Rogers]

Only with out the EU being the common clay of the new west.

Yes, that was always the fundamental misapprehension behind the Leave campaign - which side is the common clay.

Dave

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I'm not sure the unpleasantness of the War of the Spanish Succession provides a good model for Leave/Remain divided Britain.

Consider instead disagreements which actually occurred here and were handled with typical British reserve and good manners: the Reformation, for example, or the falling out between the Royalists and Parliamentarians. Both, so far as I remember, were dealt with politely and with the minimum of unpleasantness. The Civil war was estimated to have killed a mere 4% of the entire population, and ended, I have no doubt, with a firm handshake and an unspoken agreement never to speak of the matter again. A lesson for us all at this difficult time.

 

[The Don]

Source:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...Cf2ljJBEkBAkNphvq3K_tvxEt_nAE5YxYOAcyFzzHFMFM

It's just more Project Fear^TM at work. After Brexit there will be no sickness and so no need for medicines, much less a drug stockpile.

 

[Tolls]

Besides, that nice Mr Trump said he'd see us right...

 

[Information Analyst]

It's just more Project Fear^TM at work. After Brexit there will be no sickness and so no need for medicines, much less a drug stockpile.

Indeed, me hearing the pharmacist yesterday telling the customer in front of me that diabetics are being advised to have two weeks supply of insulin in hand due to Brexit-related shortages must have been a Project Fear-induced auditory hallucination....

 

[The Don]

Indeed, me hearing the pharmacist telling the customer in front of me that diabetics are being advised to have two weeks supply of insulin in hand due to Brexit-related shortages must have been a Project Fear-induced auditory hallucination....

If it's any comfort, the food shortages that very well may follow Brexit may result in a reduction of the incidence of Type-2 (a.k.a bad) diabetes.

Those with Type-1 (a.k.a. good) diabetes can be cured just by touching Nigel Farage's tweed suit - such is the power of Brexit.

 

[Tolls]

It's the run up to Christmas as well...

At least we're growing sprouts this year, though I really don't fancy just sprouts for Christmas dinner.

 

[The Don]

It's the run up to Christmas as well...

At least we're growing sprouts this year, though I really don't fancy just sprouts for Christmas dinner.

There were six squirrels and two rather handsome male pheasants on our deck this morning - Christmas is sorted

I also note that the bunnehs are returning to the garden after an absence of several years so Boxing Day might be well taken care of as well

 

[The Don]

Labour MP refuses to support a Labour motion to prevent no deal

Labour MP Gareth Snell - who represents a constituency in Leave-voting Stoke - says he will now vote for a Brexit deal if one is brought forward, having opposed it before.

He says he will abstain on the motion this afternoon, however, because further delay does not change the fact no deal is the default in law.

Talk of future deals is "pie in the sky", he says, adding that the choice now is between supporting Mrs May's deal and cancelling Brexit.

If Labour continues to oppose a deal, it will be "responsible for a no-deal Brexit by default" by "not making a decision", he adds.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...011805ca5d26066d474bdd&pinned_post_type=share
I cannot decide whether Labour are a shambles, a shower or a combination of the two