Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[Darat]

Peterborough by election;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48532869

Labour 31% down 17%
Brexit 29% up 29%
Cons 21% down 25%
Lib Dem 12% up 9%

I do not think Corbyn will keep up his demand for a General Election. Labour and the Cons must be seriously worried now.

Why, in such a marginal seat with a high Brexit referendum exit result Labour managed to increase their majority by almost 13%...

I'd say Labour will have sighed with relief at the Tories being the victim of those that have switched to the Farage party.

Makes a no deal even more likely.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It's the combination of the seats belonging to EPP, ALDE and S&D:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_People's_Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_of_Liberals_and_Democrats_for_Europe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Alliance_of_Socialists_and_Democrats

Plus a few others who are also on board. All agree with further integration of the EU. In the long term this means a unified European superstate. Not tommorow of course, but over a longer period of time. I keep repeating this is a project that will take a long period of time because quite a few posters seem to think it's a 2020-ish project. It is not. I doubt it will happen before 2040s and it will happen in small steps, we won't even know when did we cease to be a union of states and became a state with federal subjects.

Which is not what you originally claimed people voted for at all. It's a mile away in fact. And yes you would know very clearly because it would be a significant legal change of status.

Yea. Did I mention it's going to take at least 20 more years yet? I think I better mention it again: it's a long term project. A long term project, that will take decades more, in small steps. A long term project, ok?

Not in 2 years, not in 20 years, not in 200 years.

I'm reasonably sure Scotts would agree they aren't the same nation as the English are. Or that Austrians could well be the same nation as Germans, if it wasn't for a historic Austrian immigrant to Germany.

I don't know anybody in Austria that wants to be part of Germany. I'm sure there must be some - Nazis possibly. But there is no serious political movement as far as I am aware of to make this happen. As for Scotland, there is a split between those two opinions. However, there is nobody (!) who thinks they are the same nation as Bulgaria or Albania and both sides agree that they DON'T want a European superstate and the relinquishing of nationhood.

Nation and state were never synonimous. Yes, most states are built along national lines. No, it's not a coincidence. No, it doesn't mean anything when you're discussing a union of European states (and nations, as it were).

It does when you are asking people to relinquish it.

Did I mention yet this is a long term project whose small steps of further integration will cause an EU superstate - whether desired or not?

You keep saying that as if somehow it's going to happen by accident despite nobody wanting it. It really isn't.

Just in case I didn't, it's a long term project. Many, many small steps and a few big ones (fiscal union) will slowly guide the EU towards becoming a superstate and we probably won't be able to definitively say there is any single point before which EU was a union of states and after which it was a superstate. The key here is it will take a long time yet and the progress will be nearly invisible as you live through it, did I mention this before?

This is your opinion but it seems a mile away from reality. I think you don't appreciate what a 'state' would be. A single flag, a single language?, a single national anthem?, a single football team at the World Cup?, a single Olympic team? Not happening.

Since most things seem to point to smaller nations being more prosperous in general then if anything the opposite is more likely. That huge states with multiple cultures like China and India will disintegrate and fragment. Europe and Russia may well further subdivide.

The USA might well survive but in the long run who knows, that is a rather unique case anyway.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Why, in such a marginal seat with a high Brexit referendum exit result Labour managed to increase their majority by almost 13%...

I'd say Labour will have sighed with relief at the Tories being the victim of those that have switched to the Farage party.

Makes a no deal even more likely.

No doubt Corbyn thinks this is an opportunity. The no-deal vote will split between Tory and Brexit and he can charge through the middle with his no-clue strategy.

Of course all this means in reality is that the Tories will double down on delivering a Brexit as hard as they can and there will be no GE until they do so.

Corbyn seems to be strangely blinkered in all of this. He can talk himself blue in the face about a GE but he isn't getting one and he seems unable to think tactically about what he should be doing instead. His strategy seems to be simply to engineer a no deal Brexit without taking the blame for it. But I don't see how that gets him elected either.

 

[Information Analyst]

Whoa. Latest poll:

Brexit party: 26%
Labour: 22%
Con: 17%
LibDem: 16%
Green: 11%
UKIP, ChUK: 1% each

Brutal. However it looks slightly anomalous compared to other polls. If you did a poll of polls I think Labour would come out ahead of Brexit party as the main opposition. Tories might be wiped out and LibDems could be the kingmakers of the minority government. It depends a bit on how votes are distributed. I think LibDems and Greens would take may seats representing cities while Brexit, Labour and Con would fight Hunger games over what's left.

So pro-Remain parties on 28% even when not including SNP & Plaid Cymru.

 

[Information Analyst]

YouGov piece, clearly prompted by Farage's "fake polls" whinge: How we design election polling questions.

It's hilarious that Farage's complaint now means that the Green Party will be included amongst the "main parties," as well as Brexit Ltd, with the result that their latest shows:

Con 18%
Lab 20%
Lib Dem 20%
SNP 5%
Plaid Cymru 0%
Brexit 26%
Green 9%

UKIP 1%
WEP 0%
Change UK 0%

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Would you say his leadership of the opposition was better than Theresa May as Prime Minister, worse than that trainwreck, or about the same?

Homeopathic leadership.

In the same way that a treatment with diluted water might do less harm than bloodletting or other quack interventions, his strategy of doing nothing until the Tories deliver Brexit and take the blame for it tells us little about his capacity to actually achieve anything.

It does seem to be gaining him something of a reputation for not achieving anything though.

 

[Tolls]

So.
The next Tory leader.
What do we reckon the odds are of them not actually becoming PM?

The more I think about it, the more likely it feels to me...though I strongly suspect that's wishful thinking on my part!

 

[p0lka]

big sigh..

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...to-taking-cocaine-on-several-social-occasions

here we go...

a competition for who can come across as the edgiest, to appeal to every demographic.

 

[Vixen]

So whilst Donald Tusk warned the UK it needed to concentrate on the Brexit issue as time is very tight, what do we do? We arse about with Conservative Party Leader elections of interest only to the Conservative Party which won't be decided until July and then there will be the great summer recess all over August.

Raab wants to prorogue Parliament as soon as it is realised Britain has done precisely nothing at all in heeding Tusk's admonition. Bercow wants to stand in his way. Gove wants to give free settlement to EU citizens. Farage wants to join in the 'negotiations' (= a no deal) even though he has no members of parliament and therefore does not get to vote on the issue.

Come on UK: get your act together.

 

[Vixen]

Nigel Farage at Peterborough bye elections:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1136944485236187136

 

[The Atheist]

One poll shows a 1% majority (and what's the MOE on the polling usually +-3% or so) for the first time in about 2 years and that suddenly means people want Brexit?

That was but a few days ago, and now:

Whoa. Latest poll:

Brexit party: 26%
Labour: 22%
Con: 17%
LibDem: 16%
Green: 11%
UKIP, ChUK: 1% each

But no doubt the dreamers will keep telling me most people want to remain.

You Pommies are going to wake up one morning to find the once-mighty Pound Sterling is almost keeping pace with the Rouble.

 

[The Don]

But no doubt the dreamers will keep telling me most people want to remain.

...and according to the polls, that seems still to be the case. Remain has a 5%-10% lead in the polls. That doesn't transfer neatly into party support because there are a number of confounding factors including Remain supporting Labour voters still supporting Labour in the (forlorn IMO) opinion that Labour will push for a second referendum, people supporting Labour or the Conservatives even though they disagree with their Brexit platform because they like the rest of their policies and people who would continue to support Labour or the Conservatives simply out of habit.

One of the reasons why Leavers don't want a second referendum is that, with a little more knowledge about some of the big issues, enough people might switch to Remain and their once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to line their pockets at the country's expense will have passed.

You Pommies are going to wake up one morning to find the once-mighty Pound Sterling is almost keeping pace with the Rouble.

Well that may help UK exports, but as we run a large trade deficit, that does not bode well for domestic inflation...

 

[jimbob]

big sigh..

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...to-taking-cocaine-on-several-social-occasions

here we go...

a competition for who can come across as the edgiest, to appeal to every demographic.

Someone pointed out that if they had been poor and admitted to a history of using drugs, they would have been ruined.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

Apropos of nothing and just because I think I'm unusual in this, I have no objections to a European superstate.... Preferably as a precursor to an 'Earth state'. Then we can stop all the petty bickering about imaginary lines, focus on running a tidy planet and indeed exploring and colonising other planets.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

Would you say his leadership of the opposition was better than Theresa May as Prime Minister, worse than that trainwreck, or about the same?

McHrozni

Much worse. Tory disarray should have been an absolute gift to an opposition party and he's completely failed to capitalise on it.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

Time and time again we come back to the reality that the majority of people who voted for Leave had simply fallen for the press and politicians' lies, and have little concept of what Brexit actually means.

I used to say that a lot of them won't truly get it until their standing in line a British airports, returning from holidays on the continent, and being incensed that they can't bring back the same amount of booze and fags as previously. Now it seem it'll be standing in A&E, being asked to cough up cash or insurance documents, bewildered that the NHS is no longer FatPoD...

Heard a comment on the radio this week that summed up the stupidity of Brexit voters. When asked how he thought we'd do splitting from the EU, this complete cockwomble replied 'We'll stuff them - we beat them in '45 and '66, we'll beat them now'.

Some people really shouldn't be allowed to vote....

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

Oooh, well happy the auto censor allows 'cockwomble'!

 

[jimbob]

Much worse. Tory disarray should have been an absolute gift to an opposition party and he's completely failed to capitalise on it.

Exactly.

 

[jimbob]

Much worse. Tory disarray should have been an absolute gift to an opposition party and he's completely failed to capitalise on it.

David Mitchell in the Gruniad

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-election-jeremy-corbyn-labour-tories-brexit

Jeremy Corbyn really wants a general election. He blows hot and cold on a second referendum, but he’s always up for an election. I don’t think it’s a tactical thing – after last weekend’s European election results, his grounds for optimism are pretty shaky – I think he just likes general elections. “Let’s get back into the fray and stick it to the Tories!” is the feeling. I reckon it relaxes him. It’s a simple scenario: he knows which direction to strive in and to strive as hard as he can. He can stop losing at political chess and get back to the tug of war.

At heart he’s such a conservative. Small “C”, I hasten to emphasise. I’m not saying he isn’t leftwing. But he’s old school leftwing. He’s determined to find a way of winning the 1983 general election for Labour – it’s his Kobayashi Maru and he’s going to crack it. He’s a sincere reformer, a progressive, a socialist – it’s just his starting point doesn’t happen to be the current date. It’s like he wants to live in an Amish community and expend all his energy trying to persuade them to get a steam plough.

 

[jimbob]

big sigh..

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...to-taking-cocaine-on-several-social-occasions

here we go...

a competition for who can come across as the edgiest, to appeal to every demographic.

On badscience, a similar train of thought

So who had Gove and Coke then, anyone?

Predict the next three revelations, one point for each.

My three picks are:
Boris Johnson & Magic Mushrooms
Dominic Raab & Anabolic Steroids
Wildcard: Matt Hancock & caffine-free PG Tips

ETA with this as the first reply

So who had Gove and Coke then, anyone?

Well judging by his education reforms, crystal meth was always a strong possibility.