Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[The Don]

This is the thing that I've found the most confusing. There are politicians who are of the opinion that we should leave. Them I understand pushing for it. But May was a Remainer or, at least, flexible enough on the issue that she advocated for remaining. So why is she so gung-ho now? Is it simply that she thought that was the way that the political winds were blowing and now she's backed herself into a position that she can't climb down from?

A number of factors:

• The Conservative membership now overwhelmingly support Brexit, even a no-deal Brexit so Theresa May is playing to her party
• Apparently a significant majority of constituencies voted to leave - this apparently means that their MP must support leave otherwise they won't be reelected
• Her (and to be fair the Labour) manifesto was very clear about Brexit. She promised Brexit, she didn't necessarily promise a functioning UK economy afterwards
• Politics has fundamentally changed. In the past, leaders had ideas and attempted to convince/cajole/bully the public into supporting them. These days it's more a case of pandering to public opinion.

 

[The Don]

The petition to revoke article 50 is at 2.9 million now. Previous record was 1.6 million.

Plenty of MPs probably agree with the petition, there may well be 4-5 million by the time Parliament sits again next week. This is quite strong incentive to listen to it, I think. Parliament doesn't need to revoke article 50, it needs to do something and that something might be a referendum. These signatures can but help.

McHrozni

I agree that parliament needs to do something but with both of the major parties being pro-Brexit and anti second referendum, I'm not optimistic that it'll be anything that Remain supporters will look positively at.

The Conservatives with the DUP have a working majority and Conservative supporters firmly support a no-deal Brexit. Even those who are not pro no-deal would still prefer a no-deal to no-Brexit.

 

[catsmate]

Merkel has spoken this morning and said that a short delay would be possible ONLY IF the deal is accepted before the 29th (which apparently is impossible). If not, it's no deal bye bye and she asked the 27 remaining members to concentrate on the future after Brexit.

Sensible and expected.

 

[Darat]

We're still leaving on the 29th unless parliament agrees to the terms of the delay......

Do wish people would keep this in mind. It's way the likes of Mogg are quiet at the moment, they are obviously hoping we will leave it too late to change the date via a statutory instrument and we leave the EU as the law has it a week today.

 

[Darat]

Theresa May’s career is over and her party is probably finished too. She might as well throw herself on the grenade.

How? She can't be ousted as leader of the party.

 

[catsmate]

I disagree. Corbyn's reasons for supporting Brexit are more sound than the Tories (xenophobia). He is right. The free movement of workers has driven down wages for the UK population. It is a low-income credit driven economy.

Much of this id down to elevated expectations and unwillingness of the UK populace (and government) to accept and adapt to new styles of work.
The 'job for life' is dead. Accept this fact and move on.

 

[McHrozni]

I agree that parliament needs to do something but with both of the major parties being pro-Brexit and anti second referendum, I'm not optimistic that it'll be anything that Remain supporters will look positively at.

The Conservatives with the DUP have a working majority and Conservative supporters firmly support a no-deal Brexit. Even those who are not pro no-deal would still prefer a no-deal to no-Brexit.

Parliament voted approximately 400-200 to reject a no-deal under any circumstance. I'm sure the MPs can agree to pin the blame squarely on Theresa May as they head into the next election or something like that.

Not that a new General Election would solve anything, short of a miracle.

There is one other thing Parliament can vote for: reopening of negotiations, opting for a new strategy and a new, different deal. Expect it to be worse than this one, but Parliament can pretend it was all due to the sheer incompetence of the British government and negotiators. There is a solid case to be made for than anyway.

Different deals are possible. UK just needs to let go of one or more red lines. It needs to accept either no free trade policy or a customs border in Irish sea, if it does that different deals are indeed possible. DUP will oppose, but DUP is only necessary at this moment in time.

McHrozni

 

[3point14]

I'd like to share this if I may. Did you write it? Brilliant.

I also think it's worth sharing.

And possibly recording. Probably by someone with more talent than I, however.

 

[Vixen]

any links for that?

Try the Indy:

Anna Soubry butted in and asked Farage:

How's the march going Nigel?

This is an obvious reference to the disastrous 'March to Leave' which saw a smattering of Brexiteers set off from Sunderland on Saturday on a 14 day walk to London in protest of Brexit being delayed.

The stunt was widely mocked on social media with Farage taking the brunt of the gags as he only showed up for about an hour of the walk and let the rest of them get on with it without him.

Not wishing to have the march dragged through the mud any longer, Farage shot back and told Soubry that it was going "very well indeed."

Soubry came back again and mocked the number of people that showed up for his march:

Have you got more than 150 people yet? How many people have you employed to go on your march?

 

[The Don]

Parliament voted approximately 400-200 to reject a no-deal under any circumstance. I'm sure the MPs can agree to pin the blame squarely on Theresa May as they head into the next election or something like that.

Not that a new General Election would solve anything, short of a miracle.

McHrozni

The vote was a lot closer than that, it was 312-308 on a backbench amendment to rule out no-deal and in any case, the vote is non-binding:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/mps-reject-no-deal-brexit-by-majority-of-four

 

[McHrozni]

The vote was a lot closer than that, it was 312-308 on a backbench amendment to rule out no-deal and in any case, the vote is non-binding:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/mps-reject-no-deal-brexit-by-majority-of-four

Ah right, I mixed those votes up. The number I was reffering to was 43 votes, 321-278. The majority you cite was just for the amendment, Parliament denied a no deal by four votes.

The vote was despite a three-lined whip by the government to vote no though. That too means something.

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

The "immigration drives down wages" mantra is a well-worn one, but one that doesn't seem to have the level of support in the economy at large as individual anecdotes like yours would seem to suggest.

Exactly this particular Big Lie is commonly adhered to, whelter from ignorance or xenophobia, but utterly refused by actual facts (like the none UKGov studies).

The oft-condemned 2004 Blair liberalisation was absolutely needed due to the ageing and declining population of UK-born workers. And it's not getting any better; in the last decade the UK 16-64 workforce has declined by over half-a-million and the total workforce has expanded by more than four times this.
During this period more UK-born workers have entered part-time or self-employment, leading to the ignorant/ideological to embrace the "they're taking our jobs" refrain, but this is complete nonsense. Multiple UKGov studies actually showed that migrants rarely supplanted UK-born workers, instead entering expanding industries where there were simply not enough people to do the jobs or UK-born workers willing to do them.

....so while Jeremy Corbyn may claim that his desire to keep foreigners out is driven by a desire to keep British wages high, the core of it is still a mistrust of foreigners.

The Labour aligned working classes have never been free of xenophobia, right back to Sidney Street and it's aftermath.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Everywhere seems to be reporting that Brexit is delayed now...but don't see anything that says the Government is bringing something to Parliament to make that happen. Or any date for MV3, or whether it will even be allowed to happen.

 

[The Don]

There is one other thing Parliament can vote for: reopening of negotiations, opting for a new strategy and a new, different deal. Expect it to be worse than this one, but Parliament can pretend it was all due to the sheer incompetence of the British government and negotiators. There is a solid case to be made for than anyway.

That presupposes that the EU would be willing to start again from scratch.

Different deals are possible. UK just needs to let go of one or more red lines. It needs to accept either no free trade policy or a customs border in Irish sea, if it does that different deals are indeed possible. DUP will oppose, but DUP is only necessary at this moment in time.

McHrozni

It's not just the DUP who are fundamentally opposed to a customs border in the Irish sea, it's the vast majority of the Conservative party too.

In any case, even if there were a general election, both major parties would campaign on a Brexit platform so there'd be no change there. As a Remain voter I'd have to choose between two Brexit parties, or a party that has no chance of being a significant presence in government.

 

[The Don]

Everywhere seems to be reporting that Brexit is delayed now...but don't see anything that says the Government is bringing something to Parliament to make that happen. Or any date for MV3, or whether it will even be allowed to happen.

Exactly !

Darat has mentioned this repeatedly. I can see Theresa May holding MV3. If it passes she'll ask parliament for an extension. If it fails (or the vote never happens) then she'll allow the UK to crash out with a no-deal (an acceptable second prize from her perspective).

 

[Vixen]

Much of this id down to elevated expectations and unwillingness of the UK populace (and government) to accept and adapt to new styles of work.
The 'job for life' is dead. Accept this fact and move on.

So your boss puts you on a zero-hours contract. You find yourself kicking your heels at home. You work very few hours so you go down to the Benefits office. They put you on Universal Credit. Five weeks later you have a few coins in your pocket for food, the bills are mounting up, interest is accruing on your credit card at an alarming rate because of you can only make 'minumum payment' you are still waiting for your Univefrsal Credit benefit to come through.

In the meantime you discover your boss has taken on a Romanian worker paying him a fraction of what you were being paid, as in Romania, average monthly wage is £200, so he is ecstatic to be now earning £600 pcm.

Does the government or the EU care? No sirree. The EU was a capitalist idea.

Employers love the idea of cheaper labour and raw materials.

Enter the Labour party and trade unions.

It takes someone like Jeremy Corbyn to stand up to the stripping away of workers rights (and that includes all of you who like to consider yourselves middle class or professional class).

No wonder the Tory press hates him and defames him at every opportunity.

 

[catsmate]

I know they didn't. But the country voted to **** them over.

The issue of expatriate voting is an interesting one and linked to the question of contribution to and involvement in society as much as anything else.
Does someone really deserve the right to vote in a country when they're no-longer contributing to it (via taxation) or involved with it on a day-to-day basis, merely because they're citizens.
Perhaps a limited franchise, parliamentary elections and referenda only?

I'd also point out that UK citizens living outside the UK only lose their franchise after fifteen years, if they were registered to vote before leaving.

 

[catsmate]

I heard a certain David Davies in an interview a day or 2 ago. And he mentioned that much of the problems were caused by the UK government not being tough enough at the start of the negotiations.

My mouth has still not closed.


For non-UK folk, David Davies was put in charge of the negotiations at the start....

He probably expects most people to have forgotten this point.
He may have forgotten himself...

ETA: Oopsie wrong right-wing idiot.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It takes someone like Jeremy Corbyn to stand up to the stripping away of workers rights

By supporting and enabling the Tory Brexit that will set fire to the workers protections provided by the EU.

 

[McHrozni]

That presupposes that the EU would be willing to start again from scratch.

I think it would. Expect it to present preconditions that would make any thus achieved deal inferior to this one.

It's not just the DUP who are fundamentally opposed to a customs border in the Irish sea, it's the vast majority of the Conservative party too.

I would be too in their shoes, for obvious reasons. The other red line that can be sacrificed is an independent trade policy.

You know, to be like Norway.

Wouldn't it be terrible if we were like Norway and Switzerland?" Really? They're rich. They're happy. They're self governing.
--Nigel Farage, 2013

My point is this deal is not the only possible deal. It's the only deal that can be done with British red lines.

In any case, even if there were a general election, both major parties would campaign on a Brexit platform so there'd be no change there. As a Remain voter I'd have to choose between two Brexit parties, or a party that has no chance of being a significant presence in government.

Yes. But a new general election would mean a new government, a new PM and, perhaps, a different Brexit platform and strategy. There are sensible approaches still: accept a deal that makes UK spayed and neutered both (Norway option), with a clause that allows UK to move out of single market and/or customs union, pending a few conditions. Most conditions would be regarding the Irish border, for obvious reasons. Allow for a plan that takes UK out of EU first, then progress further to single market and customs union and other institutions, slowly excising the country out. You can't upend 40 years of integration in two years and not break all the eggs, leaving the EU would be a process taking 20 years or more by necessity.

Of course should the electorate wise up in the meantime that too must be taken into account.

That's the proper, democratic way to go about Brexit. If there is a new election maybe the new government will use it. They can always blame Theresa May for putting them in this situation in the first place.

McHrozni