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Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

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I was right in my prediction that there would be no Brexit on March 29 at least.

I really think that they should hold another referendum.

My issue with that is if people were smarter a few years ago, brexit would have been rejected. A smarter electorate would need only one vote. But that means dumber votes would be getting more chances to vote than smarter ones. They get more democracy, in a sense.
 
I make two observations about this whole mess - which have probably been noted before elsewhere:

1. May should never have been tempted to start Article 50 after the general election result giving her a very shaky coalition. I think you would need a strong party in power to make this happen successfully.
It's worse than that, she called a General Election after triggering Article 50. On top of that, Brexit didn't even feature much as a topic of debate during the campaign.
 
The petition is currently at 2.6 million, it grew by 2 million in 24 hours. At this rate it's believable the Parliament will be facing five million signatures next week.
You can't ignore this and rant about "will of the people". You have to choose, it's one or the other.

McHrozni
 
So, if I've understood this correctly, if the third vote fails, then (assuming the legislation is quickly amended, which I expect it to be) Parliament gets til the 12th April to come up with a way forward which (outisde of outright ditching Article 50, or dropping out) would result in a longer extension in order to facilitate whatever the solution is (eg a referendum).

Does the sound right?

I'm ignoring the possibility of May's deal being voted through as I think that is even more unlikely now than it was yesterday.
 
So, if I've understood this correctly, if the third vote fails, then (assuming the legislation is quickly amended, which I expect it to be) Parliament gets til the 12th April to come up with a way forward which (outisde of outright ditching Article 50, or dropping out) would result in a longer extension in order to facilitate whatever the solution is (eg a referendum).

Does the sound right?

Yup. Although Parliament begins Easter recess on April 5th, so they only have a week to get their feces together. That should be plenty, there aren't that many options to choose from (referendum or election), only one of which would provide a useful answer (the referendum).

I'm ignoring the possibility of May's deal being voted through as I think that is even more unlikely now than it was yesterday.

It'll probably get another spot in the top 10 of worst defeats of a government. Maybe even the coveted top spot itself.

McHrozni
 
There's a bunch of other stuff they could pass in the meantime. The petition to revoke article 50 attracted 1.5 million new signatures since yesterday noon, when it had 800 thousand, to today 7 a.m. (both London time). Parliament is now supposed to debate it. The petition attracted more signatures in the last 24 hours than any previous petition ever did. This isn't something the elected representatives can simply ignore.

I wouldn't put money on that.
 
Liked this. For those unfamiliar with the works of the great Bernard Cribbens this is the the tune it's set to:



“Right, ” said May “Gonna have a Brexit
Strong and simples, steady as we go”
Went to Brussels, tried to flex her muscles
She was getting nowhere
And so she had a cuppa tea and


“Right, ” said May “Give a shout for Boris”
“Rah!” say Boris “this won’t take a mo!”
Told them “whistle”, made the EU bristle
He was getting nowhere
And so we had a cuppa tea

Now the PM had a think
And she thought we ought
To find someone to save us
So she called for David Davis
But he did no good
Did she really think he would?

“Right ” said May “DUP is needed
Call up Arlene, bung her lots of dough”
What a giggle, made the PM wriggle
Should have got her somewhere but no!
So May said “Let’s have another cuppa tea.”
And we said, “right-o”

“Right, ” said May, “Gonna need a backstop
Irish border, keep the status quo”
Her idea bit her in the rear
And it got her nowhere
And so we had a cuppa tea and

“Right, ” said May “Here’s the ultimatum
Vote this through coz it’s our final throw”
Croaky throat too, couldn’t get the vote through
She was getting nowhere
And so we had a cuppa tea.

Jacob had a think, and he said, “Look chaps
I get a sort of feeling
If we can slip no deal in
With a bribe or two we could force our Brexit through.”

“Right!” said May, loading up a shotgun
Peace and progress – everything must go
Was she in trouble, emptied both barrels,
Shot herself in both feet again!
So suck it and see but you musn’t blame me
I voted remain
 
Liked this. For those unfamiliar with the works of the great Bernard Cribbens this is the the tune it's set to:



“Right, ” said May “Gonna have a Brexit
Strong and simples, steady as we go”
Went to Brussels, tried to flex her muscles
She was getting nowhere
And so she had a cuppa tea and

...

:D:thumbsup::D
 
EU agreed extension to 22nd May if MPs agree next week to PM May's deal. Otherwise extension to 12th April to come up with something else.

The EU want May's deal because of all the options at the moment it is the best deal for them. No deal is bad and the EU do not want the UK to get more time to try and negotiate a deal that is better for the UK as, obviously, the EU wants it to be worse not being in the EU than being in the EU.
 
EU agreed extension to 22nd May if MPs agree next week to PM May's deal. Otherwise extension to 12th April to come up with something else.

The EU want May's deal because of all the options at the moment it is the best deal for them. No deal is bad and the EU do not want the UK to get more time to try and negotiate a deal that is better for the UK as, obviously, the EU wants it to be worse not being in the EU than being in the EU.

it's not negotiating that the UK is doing - it's holding its breath until it gets another sweetie.
Why do 27 other countries have to give in, when they have nothing to gain?
 
it's not negotiating that the UK is doing - it's holding its breath until it gets another sweetie.
Why do 27 other countries have to give in, when they have nothing to gain?

The UK ruling class is more used to bullying that negotiating to their their way. The UK had already extracted numerous concessions for being in the EU, such as the rebate, not in Schengen, not in the Euro etc etc.

The MPs are now learning the hard way that they cannot bully any more and May's deal is crap because we cannot bully benefits for UK any more.

The rest of the MPs are deluded to think that they can do any better, especially when they cannot agree a consensus.

If we do leave with no deal, we then have to negotiate a new deal (a point missed by many) which we will likely loose as our position is going to be far weaker than the EU's.
 
Based on the performance of the UK's negotiating team so far, they should be fine with a 21-month extension.

Dave

The longer the negotiations go on for, the weaker the UK becomes, as the present splits will worsen as the Independent Group grows larger and the Tories and Labour fracture. Pressure will also grow on tired MPs to get on with other business.

The present petition to scrap brexit, which is not being matched by one to keep going and the farce that was Farages march for brexit, shows support for leaving is draining away rapidly.

Cancelling brexit is the lifeboat presently floating past Parliament.
 
If the petition gets to 17 million does it cancel Brexit by default?

One of the Tory politicians said yesterday when the signatures were under a million that they would only pay attention to it after there were 17.4m signatures.

I always get a bit dismayed by these petitions which seem to be the ultimate in 'doing something without actually doing anything'

The point is to provide a counter-narrative to the "will of the people".
 
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