Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[The Don]

If you're good at something, don't do it for free:

Speculation rather than evidence - fair enough.

Maybe. Look, I'm trying to help here. Throw potential solutions at the problem, maybe one passes. What else can be done in the sad situation UK has found itself in?

Yes, there's a wide range of potential future approaches but many (or close approximations) have already been tried and failed.

It can be negotiated in under two hours. There are only two options to choose from:

1. UK gets the deal with services and financial passporting, but accepts EU regulation.
2. UK doesn't get the said deal.

The same goes for pretty much everything else. Heck, I'd be surprised if it took two hours, if UK could accept the rules of the game. If UK does not accept the rules of the game fifty years are not enough to negotiate anyway.

I think it's already been established that the UK doesn't want to adhere to the rules that would enable it to get a "package" deal so it's a complex bespoke deal.

Honestly, I wouldn't worry too much about those. If UK leaves the EU without a deal no country will be keen on signing much of anything with the UK, out of fear of European retalliation, the deal changing due to the deal with EU and most of all, because no one will trust the UK to keep to their word in the first place. Plus UK lacks skilled negotiators to strike said deals.

Making other deals until the question of Brexit is resolved is the least of your concerns.

McHrozni

I disagree, I think that post a no-deal, the UK will rush to a deal with the US because that's what many of the key Brexiteers want.

 

[ponderingturtle]

This raises a question I have been pondering. May's deal is quite obviously believed by May et. al, to be better than no deal.

Contrarily, that same cohort believe that if May's deal is defeated, somehow no deal is better than the status quo.

How does that work? Absent May's deal, how is no deal better?

Makes the profiting from the whole thing much better and easier for those prepared and with the resources for it.

 

[McHrozni]

Speculation rather than evidence - fair enough.

Hence saying "I think", rather than "I know", "I have evidence of" or something of that nature

Yes, there's a wide range of potential future approaches but many (or close approximations) have already been tried and failed.

I suspect there will be a referendum at the end. I really didn't think it would take this long though. Corbyn has a lot to answer for here.

I think it's already been established that the UK doesn't want to adhere to the rules that would enable it to get a "package" deal so it's a complex bespoke deal.

Yea, it can be made in that context was said in the context of "it is possible to do so". Indeed it is, there is no law of nature preventing UK from accepting rules are for everyone. There are only two possible scenarios though: either UK accepts this fact and the deal can be made in a single afternoon, or UK doesn't accept it, in which case it doesn't matter if you have hours or decades. The deal can not be made in the latter case.

I disagree, I think that post a no-deal, the UK will rush to a deal with the US because that's what many of the key Brexiteers want.

Sure. It takes at least two to make a deal though. Pelosi already ruled out any deal with UK unless the Irish border question is solved. You need her to have USA ratify any deal. Plus Trumps' offer was a tad, how to put it gently ... it made UK a colony of USA. Rushing to make that deal, even if it were possible, would be a disaster for the UK. Brexiteers would be hard-pressed to support it, retarded though they may be.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Hence saying "I think", rather than "I know", "I have evidence of" or something of that nature

Actually what you said was:

I'm reasonably certain the money for Nigel Farage is sourced from the Kremlin. That would count as treason, right?

I hope you can appreciate why I came to the mistaken conclusion that you had some evidence to make you reasonably certain

 

[ohms]

British Steel has entered insolvency.

This is clearly Brexit-related, and it won't be Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage or Jacob Rees-Mogg who lose their jobs over it.

The government says that they can't nationalise/finance British Steel due to EU state aid rules but there could be a case to provide backing under Article 346.

 

[The Don]

I suspect there will be a referendum at the end. I really didn't think it would take this long though. Corbyn has a lot to answer for here.

I don't share your optimism. The Conservatives are dead set against a referendum, Labour is lukewarm and in any case, there's no certainty that Remain would be one of the options.

Yea, it can be made in that context was said in the context of "it is possible to do so". Indeed it is, there is no law of nature preventing UK from accepting rules are for everyone. There are only two possible scenarios though: either UK accepts this fact and the deal can be made in a single afternoon, or UK doesn't accept it, in which case it doesn't matter if you have hours or decades. The deal can not be made in the latter case.

Sure it's theoretically possible - I think the pantomime of the last couple of years has shown what is likely to happen - years or decades of blundering where the UK doesn't even know what it wants, much less how to get it.

Sure. It takes at least two to make a deal though. Pelosi already ruled out any deal with UK unless the Irish border question is solved. You need her to have USA ratify any deal. Plus Trumps' offer was a tad, how to put it gently ... it made UK a colony of USA. Rushing to make that deal, even if it were possible, would be a disaster for the UK. Brexiteers would be hard-pressed to support it, retarded though they may be.

McHrozni

Of course it would be a disaster, but it's the deal that the Brexiteers want.

 

[McHrozni]

I hope you can appreciate why I came to the mistaken conclusion that you had some evidence to make you reasonably certain

Not really, but I'll live

The evidence is circumstantial and not enough to say there is proof. It is enough, however, to say it with a reasonable degree of certainty, which you could still reffer to as speculation and not be wrong.

Here goes:
Alongside statements such as those there is the uncomfortable truth Putin has stooges in right-wing populist (and possibly other fringe) parties all over Europe. Austria is having an early election this September due to that. There is no reason to think his agents haven't approached the ERG, UKIP and others. Leave campaign was financed by shady money, that has been proven. Farage gives me no reason to think that help wasn't welcomed, but this part is speculation.

There are two scenarios, in both Farage is approached with an offer from Russia, I have no doubt this happened. In one option he accepts help and betrayed UK to Russia, in the other he refuses Russian help, but accepts help from a different shady source but keeps spouting Russian propaganda anyway.

I think the first scenario is more likely than the second.

Sure it's theoretically possible - I think the pantomime of the last couple of years has shown what is likely to happen - years or decades of blundering where the UK doesn't even know what it wants, much less how to get it.

UK will accept the rules apply to it, don't worry. The only question is whether it will accept that on the threat of impending doom, or as a remedy to the said doom being a tad too unbearable.

Of course it would be a disaster, but it's the deal that the Brexiteers want.

No, it's not. Brexiteers want fairies and unicorns and a free winged pony for the barbacue, they call it "WTO Brexit". If they knew what that meant they'd be against it.

McHrozni

 

[Dave Rogers]

Plus Trumps' offer was a tad, how to put it gently ... it made UK a colony of USA. Rushing to make that deal, even if it were possible, would be a disaster for the UK. Brexiteers would be hard-pressed to support it, retarded though they may be.

I wish I felt I could hold Brexiteers in as high regard as you do. I think they'd fall over themselves to accept it, because they've mentally re-defined national sovereignty to mean non-membership of the EU and nothing else.

Dave

 

[Information Analyst]

BBC News: European elections 2019 - Expats in France fear postal votes will not count

"British expats in France might not get a vote in Thursday's European elections because their postal voting forms have arrived late, or not at all.

The BBC found some local councils used a postal service called Adare SEC, rather than Royal Mail, to send them.

Envelopes seen by the BBC indicate they were sent via the Netherlands.

Voters must have their papers back in the UK by election day. Adare SEC said all ballots were posted "in line with the election and council timetables".

The company insisted they had used "reputable mail handlers" whose job it was to "assess the best route through other European countries before the mail arrives at the final destination".

The UK will go to the polls on Thursday, between 07:00 BST and 22:00 BST.

Expat voters who want to participate in European elections can register in advance to have a postal vote in the British constituency where they or their parents were last registered to vote.

But they must have their completed ballot paper returned to the local electoral returning officer by the time polls close on election day.

It is believed, based on the number of eligible voters, that thousands of Britons living in France could be affected."

 

[Information Analyst]

1% of Brexit party supporters want to Remain in the EU. That one is a bit weird

I think it's mostly an anomaly produced by converting rounded percentages to numbers, and then back again. That or a rather perverse form of "protest" voters.

 

[McHrozni]

I think it's mostly an anomaly produced by converting rounded percentages to numbers, and then back again. That or a rather perverse form of "protest" voters.

I'd expect the number to be exactly zero and this sort of thing can't happen with a zero

A retarded protest vote? Sure.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

I wish I felt I could hold Brexiteers in as high regard as you do. I think they'd fall over themselves to accept it, because they've mentally re-defined national sovereignty to mean non-membership of the EU and nothing else.

Yea, but at that point UK would have left the EU already. There is no (or not nearly enough) emotional investment in making a deal, any deal, with the USA as well.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I think it's mostly an anomaly produced by converting rounded percentages to numbers, and then back again. That or a rather perverse form of "protest" voters.

You've also got 'people who misunderstood the question' 'people who clicked the wrong thing' and 'people who just answered the questionnaire without reading it' as well as 'people being funny'

 

[Information Analyst]

You've also got 'people who misunderstood the question' 'people who clicked the wrong thing' and 'people who just answered the questionnaire without reading it' as well as 'people being funny'

That said, there are slightly higher numbers overall of No Dealers who are still planning on voting SNP, Green, and Change UK.

 

[Nessie]

All trade with the EU will have to comply with EU rules. Nothing can be sold in the EU, goods, services, anything, without it complying. It does not matter what trade deal the UK has with the EU, that compliance will have to happen.

The same is true for the USA.

So there are UK companies that have the same good/service to sell, but that good/service differs slightly depending on where it is going, to comply with EU, USA or other regulations.

I do not see why a company that sells pumps to the EU and the USA will incure EU retaliation for continuing to sell post brexit.

 

[Klimax]

What's your source for this ? Most accounts I've read is that he's funded by Aaron Banks and US healthcare interests.
...

Wasn't Aaron Banks included in Mueller's investigation?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

That said, there are slightly higher numbers overall of No Dealers who are still planning on voting SNP, Green, and Change UK.

There are a section of SNP supporters who want independence from both the UK and the EU. So that might explain that bit anyway.

It's kind of funny how this election has become a proxy referendum on the EU anyway because the people being elected won't have a say on Brexit policy.

 

[GlennB]

Suggestions are being made that the cabinet has turned on May big time and that she might be out by the end of the week. Cue leadership elections. Hopefully someone will stab Boris in the back again and my bet, on Raab, will pay out.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

The said deal was DOA all along and yet here it is for the fourth time.

I have a mental image of a corpse in a wheelbarrow being brought back for a fourth time, with a false beard and floppy hat disguise and perhaps a little cologne to mask the attention grabbing smell.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

… Hopefully someone will stab Boris in the back again and my bet, on Raab, will pay out.

Having thought for so long that everyone was guaranteed to lose from Brexit, here's a tiny sliver of hope to cling to that there might be a silver lining for someone.