davidhorman
Muse
- Joined
- Oct 11, 2001
- Messages
- 991
I will now demonstrate my own psychic powers by predicting that you will be wrong on all counts.
David
Book Test: Max & Any Others Interested
- Thread starter Garrette
- Start date
I will now demonstrate my own psychic powers by predicting that you will be wrong on all counts.
David
TheBoyPaj
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2003
- Messages
- 1,640
After 120 rounds, the experiment is over.
You can reach the raw results via my sig. I'm just adding a simple binomial probability column, but I don't think there's anything to get excited about.
Of course, this will mean nothing to true believers (who will just say that I cheated anyway), but at least I know that everything was above board and the evidence shows that no one who participated was able to remote view.
You can reach the raw results via my sig. I'm just adding a simple binomial probability column, but I don't think there's anything to get excited about.
Of course, this will mean nothing to true believers (who will just say that I cheated anyway), but at least I know that everything was above board and the evidence shows that no one who participated was able to remote view.
Paj that was a great experiment with some interesting results.
Firstly, the person with the highest number of hits was the person with the highest number of attempts (obvious and totally expected).
Secondly those with the greatest ratio of hits had fairly few attempts:
tc: 3 attempts Success ratio: 0.33333
Daenris: 11 attempts Success ratio: 0.27273
Lemon: 4 attempts Success ratio: 0.25
Lucianarchy: 5 attempts Success ratio: 0.2
Thirdly (and in my opinion most interesting) there was one person on the list who felt, or claimed, that they genuinely had psychic ability (I think we all know who that was).
They got the correct book first time of trying (1 in 10 chance) and actually used this as evidence of their psychic ability in this and other forums. But unfortunately they pushed their luck and kept trying, failing the next four times, after which they gave up. Their ratio was falling all the time.
Shame, they'd have looked so good if they'd given up after the first attempt.
And lots of people gave up after their first or second failed attempt.
I think this was a fascinating look at hits and misses. Nice one Paj.
Firstly, the person with the highest number of hits was the person with the highest number of attempts (obvious and totally expected).
Secondly those with the greatest ratio of hits had fairly few attempts:
tc: 3 attempts Success ratio: 0.33333
Daenris: 11 attempts Success ratio: 0.27273
Lemon: 4 attempts Success ratio: 0.25
Lucianarchy: 5 attempts Success ratio: 0.2
Thirdly (and in my opinion most interesting) there was one person on the list who felt, or claimed, that they genuinely had psychic ability (I think we all know who that was).
They got the correct book first time of trying (1 in 10 chance) and actually used this as evidence of their psychic ability in this and other forums. But unfortunately they pushed their luck and kept trying, failing the next four times, after which they gave up. Their ratio was falling all the time.
Shame, they'd have looked so good if they'd given up after the first attempt.
And lots of people gave up after their first or second failed attempt.
I think this was a fascinating look at hits and misses. Nice one Paj.
TheBoyPaj
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2003
- Messages
- 1,640
I have just added the probability column and a couple of mildly diverting charts. I have just published directly from Excel, so you'll have to excuse the bloated page code.
http://cgi.pagetworld.plus.com/bookresults.htm
According to the numbers, the best performance was Daenris' with a probability of about 1 in 35. Still pretty poor though.
http://cgi.pagetworld.plus.com/bookresults.htm
According to the numbers, the best performance was Daenris' with a probability of about 1 in 35. Still pretty poor though.
NoZed Avenger
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2002
- Messages
- 11,286
I select . . . the Tweenies book.