Book Test: Max & Any Others Interested

Hmmm...a couple of comments....

1. Max's process was obviously different from mine (which started very non-psychically, "What kinds of books might Garrette be reading?"

2. re: protocol. What about keeping it fiction (still so broad)? Maybe you wouldn't even have to have the book, just print out the cover and description from Amazon and leave it on a table (I don't know if that helps the psychic process or not, but it wouldn't hurt).

I'm wondering about looking at any hits for, you know, the elements of fiction: setting, plot, main character, theme, tone. If Max had gotten "Africa" or "travel adventure" we might have thought about it.

Also anything related to the words in the title, the author's name, or the cover picture or design.

That may sound like a lot of variables to help someone with, but I bet if you have a bunch of us also guessing, we won't do very well. Given the millions of books out there, and almost endless possibilities, I personally don't think this is the least bit easy to do! But I think it would be fun to try again some time, if Max feels like doing it again.
 
Garrette,

Don't you think it would be better if we put our answers in PMs to you? That way we won't be influenced by other guesses.
 
If I am an acceptable personage to all involved, I have a solution to securing the name of the book while posting the title publicly in an encrypted form.

Like many people, I am not technically adroit with PGP. It would be best if the encryption and decryption could be understood by everyone involved. Along those lines, I can use my own private encryption method and post the book title encrypted, and at the end of the experiment, reveal the encryption method to everyone so they can decrypt it for themselves.

If this sounds okay to everyone, Garrette can then PM me the title of the book.
 
Luke T.,

It's okay to me. I'll take the word of more technically savvy people that your method is secure.

Unless I hear objections, I'll pm you the info in about twelve hours.

--

Clancie,

I have no objections to pms as the means of sending answers.

Again, unless there are objections, pms are now the way to communicate your [BOLD]final [/BOLD] answers.

I request, though, that when you pm me, post a blurb here saying you have done so in order for others to know.

Thanks.
 
Clancie,

The issues about the elements of fiction are what make this difficult to do. The more things you allow hits on, the more (falsely) broad you make the target.

If Max had said all the same things but had added the word Africa, would it have been a hit? Africa's not a major character (Tangier is); Africa's not a plot line. In fact, the common image conjured by the word Africa is foreign to Tangier which is not Savannah or elephant country or bushmen. That's why we really should agree before hand.

This topic, though, is important, so let's keep thinking on it.


Nor do I think it wise to allow an answer to be a hit on either the title or the subject. The answerer must state which it is. Or do as Ed did and give an answer on physical appearance.

Finally, I don't see a reason to limit it to fiction. Why the limitation? Is there an indication that feelings around fiction are received better?
 
Garrette said:
Book Jacket: Yellow, almost completely, including the spine

Color of Title Letters: Red


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quote:
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Ed's Answer:

The books spine is darkish blue or blue with black highlights sort of with white writing, horizontal. The title is 3 or 4 words first word is "the".
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Guess for spine color: Incorrect - Miss
Guess for coloring of spine letters: Incorrect - Miss
Guess for length of title: Incorrect - Miss
Guess for first word of title: Correct - Not counted, per protocol
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Spectacular confirmation of psi missing from a vehement skeptic! What more proof is required??
 
Posted by Garrette

Is there an indication that feelings around fiction are received better?
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I don't know, but it seems like it might be. My main thought was that fiction alone is extremely broad and very unlikely, imo, to get right on one or two tries--or even close. But when you add in non fiction as well you literally add millions of possible choices and make it much harder to sort through millions of possibilities for what an image or word might mean. I also think non fiction is less focused content-wise than fiction, so a little harder to be sure what is a hit or a miss.

But...I don't know anything about this kind of experiment either, Garrette. Just my two cents for what its worth! :)
 
Clancie said:

I don't know, but it seems like it might be. My main thought was that fiction alone is extremely broad and very unlikely, imo, to get right on one or two tries--or even close. But when you add in non fiction as well you literally add millions of possible choices and make it much harder to sort through millions of possibilities for what an image or word might mean. I also think non fiction is less focused content-wise than fiction, so a little harder to be sure what is a hit or a miss.

But...I don't know anything about this kind of experiment either, Garrette. Just my two cents for what its worth! :)
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I definitely don't think it would work if the person with the book is a skeptic. It worked with ummm . .what's he called? Toastie because he wasn't taking it seriously.

I certainly agree about keeping it fiction. And printing it out from Amazon is also a good idea. It helps the person who chooses the book to more clearly have the book in his/her mind.
 
Interesting Ian said:


I definitely don't think it would work if the person with the book is a skeptic. It worked with ummm . .what's he called? Toastie because he wasn't taking it seriously.

I certainly agree about keeping it fiction. And printing it out from Amazon is also a good idea. It helps the person who chooses the book to more clearly have the book in his/her mind.
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Ah, yes: "THE RULES"
 
Garrette - if Luke's suggestion is fine (and after all this isn't a rigourous experiment) OK, otherwsie I could try to locate a suitable PGP utlity that all Windows uses could use. Let me know.


Clancie said:

I don't know, but it seems like it might be. My main thought was that fiction alone is extremely broad and very unlikely, imo, to get right on one or two tries--or even close. But when you add in non fiction as well you literally add millions of possible choices and make it much harder to sort through millions of possibilities for what an image or word might mean. I also think non fiction is less focused content-wise than fiction, so a little harder to be sure what is a hit or a miss.

But...I don't know anything about this kind of experiment either, Garrette. Just my two cents for what its worth! :)
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Couple of disagreements (all just my opinion of course)

Fiction works tend to have "catchier" titles, after all they try to appeal to a book reader/buyer and non-fiction books tend to be more focused and very specific. I can't see any reason to reduce the set that possible target could be taken from.
 
Honestly, I think the protocol is quite unacceptable.

So long as you are arguing about whether a guess constitutes a 'hit' or not, then you are 1) introducing judging into the test 2) inviting unlimited arguments about the results 3) proving nothing.

This would never be publishable in any reputable journal, nor would Randi ever agree to the test conditions, because of the necessity of judging the results.

Several times in the past we have designed good protocols for RV on this forum. Paul Aganastasomthingoranother came up with some good ones, I remember. I don't know if they survived the Great Pruning. In short, the test runs along the lines of having 2 or more different targets, announced at the start. One of the targets is randomly selected (truly random). Test starts, participants RV it however they want, and record their answer. I.e. the applicant does all the "judging". Then another trial starts, with no feedback on the correctness of the previous trial. Do enough trials to gain statistical significance. Analyze and publish the data.

Private encryption methods are not acceptable. Any method invented by someone is prone to cracking. PGP is freely available here. Yes, I do trust Luke, but if you don't remove a potential objection, then rest assured the objection will be made when people are unhappy with the results.
 
Why not post 10 book pictures and have all of the rv'ers out there pick the right one?

Identifying the object as a book is sloppy in the first place, no more info please.
 
Clancie said:

I don't know, but it seems like it might be. My main thought was that fiction alone is extremely broad and very unlikely, imo, to get right on one or two tries--or even close. But when you add in non fiction as well you literally add millions of possible choices and make it much harder to sort through millions of possibilities for what an image or word might mean. I also think non fiction is less focused content-wise than fiction, so a little harder to be sure what is a hit or a miss.

But...I don't know anything about this kind of experiment either, Garrette. Just my two cents for what its worth! :)
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I disagree. Its often stated that a reading or psi phenonmenon is made up of several hits which in culmination become evidential. If anything, we're leaving ourselves more open by allowing any book title period. We're looking for elements of what people can bring through here in a psi sense that will convincingly give the title, or at least give a quite detailed summary of characters and subject of the book. Fiction or non-fiction should have zero affect here. If the abilities are worth anything they should be able to discern a non-fiction book from a fiction book.

I also think that any words given that are specified as to whether the reader thinks they likely pertain to title, subject, plotlines, characters, should be held to those categories.
 
roger said:

Private encryption methods are not acceptable. Any method invented by someone is prone to cracking. PGP is freely available here. Yes, I do trust Luke, but if you don't remove a potential objection, then rest assured the objection will be made when people are unhappy with the results.
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What I have in mind is a one time pad. One time pads are unbreakable. However, if the participants of this experiment would like to ensure any possible foul play is eliminated, then PGP is the way to go. I just wasn't sure everyone involved would want to go to the trouble of learning how to use it.

Whatever you guys decide on is okay by me.
 
Luke, they are unbreakable, but aren't they also spoofable? Meaning, if max guess "The Grapes of Wrath", and you encoded the book "Of Mice and Men", all you have to do is publish a different OTP than you actually used, and make it look like the title was "Of Mice and Men". Or vice versa, if you wanted to make it look like somebody failed if they actually succeeded. Maybe I am not thinking about it correctly?

Please note that this is a discussion of encrpytion, NOT luke's character.

In any case, my point is irrelevant so long as there is the potential for the tester to merely PM the correct answers to somebody if they want to cheat.
 
Wow. I've created a monster... coolness.

Okay. For simplicity's sake, I'll adhere to Garrette's protocols; he seems to have a good head on his shoulders and I like his ideas. What's started out as a rather obnoxious mocking of Gullible Ian has actually turned into an experiment; as Mr. Spock would say, 'Fascinating.'

So, I have a new book on the tower. Feel free to take a stab at it, if you want. No animus will be tossed at you if you're not up to it (this goes to max in particular), or if you get it wrong.

Alternately, we could use ten books in a list and you pick the one on the tower; I like that idea too. Of course, if you're lucky and get higher than average, I will not only suggest you take the JREF challenge, I will also recommend you play the stock market or go to Vegas ;)

--Toasty
 
I totally agree with Roger. I don't think that the answer should be encrypted.

It's better for Max to appoint a person who trusts to check the conditions of the experiment with Garette.
 
Ed said:
Why not post 10 book pictures and have all of the rv'ers out there pick the right one?

Identifying the object as a book is sloppy in the first place, no more info please.
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This sounds like a better approach perhaps. That way the word hints and images, or whatever it is RV'ers or PSI'ers are getting should go along way to helping them choose the proper book. Plus someone could just pick books at random, and see how things turn out. Technically I would assume RV/PSI would give those people an advantage as they'd have some keywords and images to go on to help them make their choice. While those of us just making simply guess' would not have that luxury.

In this way those using RV or PSI to make their choice can list down the words or images they received and write them down. Giving us a guideline of how they ended up choosing the book they did, but at the same time not trying to attach a score to those words as it would be exceedingly difficult to do so. If the images/words/etc. help, then we should be able to see that when we analyze it, but we don't score it because I doubt we'd agree on a protocol anyway.
 
voidx said:

I disagree. Its often stated that a reading or psi phenonmenon is made up of several hits which in culmination become evidential. If anything, we're leaving ourselves more open by allowing any book title period. We're looking for elements of what people can bring through here in a psi sense that will convincingly give the title, or at least give a quite detailed summary of characters and subject of the book. Fiction or non-fiction should have zero affect here. If the abilities are worth anything they should be able to discern a non-fiction book from a fiction book.

I also think that any words given that are specified as to whether the reader thinks they likely pertain to title, subject, plotlines, characters, should be held to those categories.
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Oh well, if skeptics and non-skeptics can't agree on even this, we might as well shelf the idea.

I insist a non-skeptic should select a book and another skeptic should attempt to "guess" it. And also should be a fiction book.
 
Toastrider said:
Wow. I've created a monster... coolness.

Okay. For simplicity's sake, I'll adhere to Garrette's protocols; he seems to have a good head on his shoulders and I like his ideas. What's started out as a rather obnoxious mocking of Gullible Ian has actually turned into an experiment; as Mr. Spock would say, 'Fascinating.'
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In what sense am I gullible??

BTW did you know that the word gullible is not a real word! :eek:
 
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