Bloomberg for President?

[Skeptic Ginger]

Mike Bloomberg tweeted a doctored debate video. Is it political spin or disinformation?

We're basically in an era where with a bit of creative editing you can make it appear like something that didn't happen, happened.

That's an obvious ad, I wouldn't call that a doctored video.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Oh, so you're basing your reasoning on speculation, not evidence.

Thought so.

Puhleese.

I was responding to this:

Have you seen the polls?

Are those polls before the GOP campaigns against Sanders or not??????

That's a fact. If you think that won't change the voter sentiment about Sanders you have you head in the sand.

 

[Cabbage]

Puhleese.

I was responding to this:
Are those polls before the GOP campaigns against Sanders or not??????

That's a fact. If you think that won't change the voter sentiment about Sanders you have you head in the sand.

Yes, it's a fact that Sanders leads Trump in the polls currently.

Predicting that that will change after the GOP campaigns against Sanders is pure speculation, however, as I said. It's not a given, no matter how much you think it is. I'll grant you this: It's every much a given as Clinton's win in 2016 was a given.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yes, it's a fact that Sanders leads Trump in the polls currently.

Predicting that that will change after the GOP campaigns against Sanders is pure speculation, however, as I said. It's not a given, no matter how much you think it is. I'll grant you this: It's every much a given as Clinton's win in 2016 was a given.

Goodness, you seem a bit not-so-objective.

There are a dozen reasons Clinton failed. How is that the least bit relevant here? I don't believe I ever said a Clinton win was a given. I did say she had a better chance than Sanders and I still believe that.

Predicting that that will change after the GOP campaigns against Sanders is pure speculation

Define "pure speculation".

 

[PhantomWolf]

Puhleese.

I was responding to this:
Are those polls before the GOP campaigns against Sanders or not??????

That's a fact. If you think that won't change the voter sentiment about Sanders you have you head in the sand.

I don't think that it will affect most Democrats and those that really, really want Trump gone. The biggest worry I have about Bernie taking the nomination is that it will put off ex-Republicans from voting Blue for a more moderate candidate, or even sent them back to Red.

I think that some are missing that it's not worth having a war of how far left a Democrat President should be moving the Country when the real goal needs to be actually having a Dem President in the first place.

 

[The Don]

Get set for four more years of Trump. For unless a miracle happens and the Dems get their act together, that is what will happen.

I've been saying this for the last three years. The Democratic Party's only hope is to find a charismatic candidate who can woo the broad church of Democratic Party voters and enough independents and get them to turn out and vote.

The current collection of candidates aren't looking promising and Bloomberg's involvement is pretty much President Trump's wet dream.

Honestly, I can see Ivanka winning in 2024 and 2028 at this rate

Come on donks, get your act together.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Parties very rarely keep the White House for more than two terms - if Trump wants to give his kids a chance, he better not run this year.

 

[The Don]

Parties very rarely keep the White House for more than two terms - if Trump wants to give his kids a chance, he better not run this year.

You're correct that they don't, but that underestimates the efforts of the GOP to ensure that people who don't support them can't go out and vote - whether it's voter suppression, roll purging or simply providing insufficient polling stations; encouraging foreign powers to get involved in the US election - the Trump family is bought and paid for from a Russian perspective or making the voting process as insecure as possible.

On the other side of the coin, we have an increasingly fragmented opposition to the GOP. Bernie Bros will absolutely not vote for a "compromise candidate", those on the right of the Democratic Party and independents wouldn't for for Bernie, Warren or AOC because they're too extreme. Younger people are more focused on single issues than party politics and may not turn out to vote, preferring to devote their efforts to their chosen issues. OTOH older GOP supporters will reliably turn out to vote and won't get sidetracked by online activism.

edited to add.....

I'd have said that the same was true here in the UK, each party being in power for 1 or 2 terms, but it seems to me that the Conservatives could realistically be in power for a generation (it's already been 10 years) because the opposition is in pieces.

 

[uke2se]

And the prophets of doom are back. Bloomberg isn't the chosen one. People seem to be behind Bernie this year. Get over it.

 

[The Don]

And the prophets of doom are back. Bloomberg isn't the chosen one. People seem to be behind Bernie this year. Get over it.

That's all very well and good, but can Bernie win an election against Donald Trump ?

IMO for every left-winger that he attracts, he scares away a couple of those on the right wing of the party or independents. They may not vote for President Trump, but simply not voting for the Democratic Party candidate is damaging enough.

I'd be happy to be proved wrong but IMO what the Democratic Party doesn't need is an ageing candidate with a history of heart disease whose policies are trivially easy to demonise.

IMO Bernie in the US is like Jeremy Corbyn in the UK:

• wildly popular with the left wing of the party and younger members
• a principled individual (whose policies are largely unchanged since the 70's)
• many of their policies are individually popular but whose platform is easily portrayed as dangerous communism

I fear that their electoral results will be similar.

 

[3point14]

And I'm not arguing about that point.

This is the same crap as in 2016, people for Sanders in denial that this will change when the GOP starts campaigning against him.

You're the one than started this, claiming people thought x, y, z. Then you post flakey evidence that y is a common thought.

Oh, do pay attention. I was just pointing out the widely varied and inconsistent coverage Bernie's been getting. That's all. That ou misunderstood my point is neither here not there.

 

[3point14]

There are many reasons for NDAs.


This is so annoying. You don't know either.

I'm not claiming to know anything. You seem to be getting all spun around by not knowing that which is legislated to not be known. It's confusing.

 

[angrysoba]

Seemed like it was singular, 'joke'.

Honestly, if this guy was the sexist he is claimed to be, there should be more than a bunch of rumored NDAs.

POST SOME FACTS PEOPLE. That's all I'm asking for.

No, I think each of them involved a joke. The NDAs are not rumours.

 

[uke2se]

That's all very well and good, but can Bernie win an election against Donald Trump ?

Remains to be seen, but my gut feeling is 'yes'. As long as everyone who are ever so worried about Trump actually votes for whomever the Democratic candidate is, they'll likely win, given the polls we have now. All of this is of course subject to change.

The biggest problem a Bernie nomination faces is the people who are worried that he can't win and then incomprehensibly elect not to vote for him in the general - if such utterly stupid people exist.

 

[The Don]

Remains to be seen, but my gut feeling is 'yes'.

I disagree, I think Bernie Sanders is President Trump's dream opponent.

Any attempt to say that, due to his age or health, President Trump is unsuitable can be countered by the fact that the Democratic candidate is older and sicker.

(((Bernie Sanders))) is the ideal bogeyman candidate to motivate the GOP. His religion, his Jewish heritage combined with a lack of active involvement is ideal negative ad material. His left wing policies will frighten the horses and ensure that the GOP faithful turn out to try and prevent the communist takeover of the US.

He's also a very divisive candidate from a Democratic Party perspective. His lack of commitment to the party is amply demonstrated by his decades of independence. His left wing policies will likely be too extreme for those on the right of the party and especially independents who will be vital to Democratic Party prospects of victory.

Most importantly of all, his policies can be easily misrepresented as being extreme which will make attack ads trivially easy to create.

IMO he's like Jeremy Corbyn in the UK - a throwback, beloved by his supporters but ultimately an electoral liability. I'd be happy to be proved wrong in the event of his selection as the Democratic Party candidate.

 

[uke2se]

I disagree, I think Bernie Sanders is President Trump's dream opponent.

Any attempt to say that, due to his age or health, President Trump is unsuitable can be countered by the fact that the Democratic candidate is older and sicker.

(((Bernie Sanders))) is the ideal bogeyman candidate to motivate the GOP. His religion, his Jewish heritage combined with a lack of active involvement is ideal negative ad material. His left wing policies will frighten the horses and ensure that the GOP faithful turn out to try and prevent the communist takeover of the US.

He's also a very divisive candidate from a Democratic Party perspective. His lack of commitment to the party is amply demonstrated by his decades of independence. His left wing policies will likely be too extreme for those on the right of the party and especially independents who will be vital to Democratic Party prospects of victory.

Most importantly of all, his policies can be easily misrepresented as being extreme which will make attack ads trivially easy to create.

IMO he's like Jeremy Corbyn in the UK - a throwback, beloved by his supporters but ultimately an electoral liability. I'd be happy to be proved wrong in the event of his selection as the Democratic Party candidate.

You seem to be under the impression that in order to win the election, Democrats have to siphon voters from Trump's base. That is simply not the case, not least because it's impossible to do for any candidate not running on a white supremacist platform.

What the Democratic candidate needs to do, and what Bernie has shown to be able to do, is to fire up the Democratic base and work to counteract voter supression efforts. They also need to be able to keep intact the Democratic coalition, but that is very much up to individual voters. If someone can't fathom voting for Bernie, that person contributes directly to a Trump win. That's the deal.

 

[The Don]

You seem to be under the impression that in order to win the election, Democrats have to siphon voters from Trump's base. That is simply not the case, not least because it's impossible to do for any candidate not running on a white supremacist platform..

Not at all. If you've read and understood any of my posts on the subject you'd know that what the Democratic Party candidate needs to do is to motivate Democratic Party voters, and Democratic Party leaning independents to get out and vote Democrat.

If at the same time they can persuade moderate Republicans (if such unicorns still exist) to stay at home because the Democratic Party candidate isn't that scary and President Trump is a dumpster fire then so much the better - but that's a secondary concern.

What the Democratic candidate needs to do, and what Bernie has shown to be able to do, is to fire up the Democratic base and work to counteract voter supression efforts. They also need to be able to keep intact the Democratic coalition, but that is very much up to individual voters. If someone can't fathom voting for Bernie, that person contributes directly to a Trump win. That's the deal.

Exactly the same thing was said about Jeremy Corbyn, and to be honest he had a much easier task given the Brexit mess, the Conservative leader and 10 years of austerity but he was an abject failure.

His outdated left-wing policies drove away support from the centre and right of the party. These people didn't vote Conservative but they also couldn't bring themselves to vote Labour. I did vote Labour, but solely as a tactical vote. It's the first time in over 30 years where I even doubted my vote.

Furthermore, Corbyn's policies and past political associations were far too easy to demonise which further motivated the right to get out and vote and caused some on the left to consider whether they really did want a return to the 1970's nationalisation and industrial strife (which isn't what Corbyn was proposing, but it was easy to frame it that way).

 

[uke2se]

Not at all. If you've read and understood any of my posts on the subject you'd know that what the Democratic Party candidate needs to do is to motivate Democratic Party voters, and Democratic Party leaning independents to get out and vote Democrat.

If at the same time they can persuade moderate Republicans (if such unicorns still exist) to stay at home because the Democratic Party candidate isn't that scary and President Trump is a dumpster fire then so much the better - but that's a secondary concern.



Exactly the same thing was said about Jeremy Corbyn, and to be honest he had a much easier task given the Brexit mess, the Conservative leader and 10 years of austerity but he was an abject failure.

His outdated left-wing policies drove away support from the centre and right of the party. These people didn't vote Conservative but they also couldn't bring themselves to vote Labour. I did vote Labour, but solely as a tactical vote. It's the first time in over 30 years where I even doubted my vote.

Furthermore, Corbyn's policies and past political associations were far too easy to demonise which further motivated the right to get out and vote and caused some on the left to consider whether they really did want a return to the 1970's nationalisation and industrial strife (which isn't what Corbyn was proposing, but it was easy to frame it that way).

But Bernie doesn't have "outdated left-wing policies". He is also, unlike Corbyn, apparently more liked by voters - at least the ones who had a say thus far - than any of the other candidates. That's the point of the primaries. Find the candidate that the plurality of Democrats can get behind. What happens next is an appeal for the rest of the Democrats to get behind the chosen candidate.

This is exactly what happened in reverse in 2016. Clinton was chosen during the primaries and Bernies voters got all pissy and a number of them voted third-party, helping Trump get elected. Do not encourage Democrats to make the same mistake again. Instead of constant doom-preaching, encourage people to bite the bullet and vote straight blue, no matter who the candidate is.

ETA: Seriously, it is important for the whole world that Trumpism is defeated this fall. It infects other countries as well. It's incumbent on us all to work towards this end and not give in to despair.

 

[The Don]

But Bernie doesn't have "outdated left-wing policies".

It's almost an identikit set of policies from the 70's. Protectionism, free healthcare, free college, a return to 1970's style taxation.

Add in his support for abortion, repealing the death penalty and gun reform and it's a platform almost designed to scare middle America.

Which is not to say that any of the policies are necessarily bad, just that they haven't proved to be electorally popular in the US over the last 4-5 decades.

He is also, unlike Corbyn, apparently more liked by voters - at least the ones who had a say thus far - than any of the other candidates. That's the point of the primaries. Find the candidate that the plurality of Democrats can get behind. What happens next is an appeal for the rest of the Democrats to get behind the chosen candidate.

Jeremy Corbyn was also wildly popular among party members and was popular enough in with the public to receive a standing ovation at Glastonbury. Then the right wing propaganda machine got to work properly and also his failings as a party leader started to become abundantly clear and his electoral goose was well and truly cooked.

This is exactly what happened in reverse in 2016. Clinton was chosen during the primaries and Bernies voters got all pissy and a number of them voted third-party, helping Trump get elected. Do not encourage Democrats to make the same mistake again. Instead of constant doom-preaching, encourage people to bite the bullet and vote straight blue, no matter who the candidate is.

Unfortunately, whilst GOP voters will simply turn out and vote the ticket, Democratic Party supporters need to be wooed. Bernie Sanders and his supporters sowed the wind in 2016 and are likely to reap the whirlwind if he is the candidate in 2020.

ETA: Seriously, it is important for the whole world that Trumpism is defeated this fall. It infects other countries as well. It's incumbent on us all to work towards this end and not give in to despair.

Then find a good candidate.

 

[Matthew Best]

It's almost an identikit set of policies from the 70's. Protectionism, free healthcare, free college, a return to 1970's style taxation.

They had all that stuff in America in the 70s?

What happened?