Black Cats

[BlackKat]

Luck has been tested... and probability won.

If you want proof look around for it. Or you can play the lottery if you don't care to look.

Your choice:
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/book.html
OR
http://www.masslottery.com/

 

[The Atheist]

Hi
A few days ago, as I was waiting for a friend, a black cat crossed the road, in the direction of where we were heading.
I was happy about this -
But then, for some reason, the cat decided to cross the road back again.endong up where it was originally.
I would be grateful to know your expert assessment on this.
Is it still lucky? or because the cat crossed back again, does this cancel out the good luck?

Thankyou in anticipation

First point:

I thought a black cat crossing your path was supposed to be an ill omen.

This is correct - Mark Twain is your best stop for this kind of thing.

Had the black cat crossed in front of you only, you would have needed to turn around and re-trace your steps to avoid the bad luck which surely follows. The cat coming back completely cancels that out, as you would have needed to turn around again and re-trace your steps, ending up exactly where you were! Staying put was a very smart option in the circumstances.



And on a side note:

People of often accuse "Skeptics" of being humourless geeks.

In future, I shall offer people who claim that this thread as absolute proof of their position.

Unreal.

 

[XBoxWarrior]

A black Subaru drove head-on into my big semi-truck.......(real story)

Now, would the lady in the car have been better off in a "white" Subaru?

I think not. She was just a bad driver. (oh yeah, she lived)

As far as cats go, I think they have great instinctual survival techniques........regardless of their color.

that's all.

p.s. luck is a word, that rhymes with........

 

[Olowkow]

Hi
A few days ago, as I was waiting for a friend, a black cat crossed the road, in the direction of where we were heading.
I was happy about this -
But then, for some reason, the cat decided to cross the road back again.endong up where it was originally.
I would be grateful to know your expert assessment on this.
Is it still lucky? or because the cat crossed back again, does this cancel out the good luck?

In my culture, black cats are "bad luck" not good luck, as has been pointed out previously.

Now two black cat crossings, within one quanta of time, I believe would give 2x units of "bad luck", since the vector quantity (direction and speed) of the cat is not specified in the quanta of "bad luck".

But, since you believe a black cat crossing is a "good luck" quanta, and we believe it is "bad", surely something either "good" or "bad" was bound to happen...twice. The proof of this is the good/bad experiences you had shortly afterwards.

 

[tsg]

I must apologise, but I'm very skeptical of the reality of your neutral stance.
Do you have any scientific proof to back up your unusual idea?

We skeptics always say that if you have an extraordinary claim, then you must provide extraordinary proof - So saying that black cats are neither lucky nor unlucky, if you cannot back up your idea, must therefore be regarded as unsubstantiated Woo, I'm afraid

"Black cats are neither lucky nor unlucky" is the null hypothesis of the claim "black cats are lucky/unlucky". The position would not exist without the claim. The claim is what must be supported.

But, counting yourself among "we skeptics", you would know that, wouldn't you?

 

[Speed of Light]

To dogmatically state a fact without proof, is not the scientifically skeptical way of doing things

I agree. Please cite your evidence that black cats cause bad luck, then?

With all due respects - For the scientific methodology to work, we must first make sure that all our facts are correct, otherwise our final conclusions will be in error, based on false assumptions.
It is very easy to read something into a situation which isn't really there, or to imagine things which aren't really there, or which haven't really been said, or implied -
remirol, please tell me where I said that I had scientific proof that black cats affect one's luck.
I'm sure I said in one of the posts that I know of no definitive scientific tests on this subject.

The "generally accepted view" has no bearing on the truth or falsity of a given issue; cf. "flat earth", "sun revolves 'round the earth", or any number of previously "generally accepted views".

See also "argumentum ad populum", etc.

Excuse me for being a little skeptical, but Is there any scientific investigation that clearly shows that the 'generally accepted view' has no correlation with truth or falsity?
Could all the science that we have come to accept, be all wrong? Crikey!
You mean, because there were one or two cases in the past where the prevailing view changed, you have extrapolated this to imply that 'all' prevailing views have absolutely no bearing on the truth at all!
It feels as if there must be a logical fallacy there somewhere!

Us skeptics often state that extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof - and as I said in another post, it is in this context that I thought the definition of 'extraordinary' meant 'against the prevailing mindset'.
For example, if everyone believed that the earth was flat, then thinking it was round, would be defined as an extraordinary view, and thus would require extraordinary proof.
But if I now claim that the earth is really flat, this would require extraordinary proof, becaue it is against the present prevailing view.

 

[The Atheist]

For those who doubt "luck" exists, please explain why the following are not actually very, very bad luck:

Pulling a rip-cord at 100 feet and the 'chute not opening.

Hurtling down a straight road with a sharp corner at the end, only to find 200m from the corner, that your brakes have failed.

Diving at 180' and running out of air.

 

[Olowkow]

For those who doubt "luck" exists, please explain why the following are not actually very, very bad luck:
Pulling a rip-cord at 100 feet and the 'chute not opening..

You are still in the plane.

Hurtling down a straight road with a sharp corner at the end, only to find 200m from the corner, that your brakes have failed.

You are taking off in an airplane.

Diving at 180' and running out of air.

You are sky diving.

 

[fuelair]

For those who doubt "luck" exists, please explain why the following are not actually very, very bad luck:

Pulling a rip-cord at 100 feet and the 'chute not opening.

Hurtling down a straight road with a sharp corner at the end, only to find 200m from the corner, that your brakes have failed.

Diving at 180' and running out of air.

All of them are potential failures of mechanical systems. They may happen at any time, but that time must be operational (they can't fail unless they are actually being used) - or the failure cannot be spotted except during use or exhaustive (and uncommon) testing. Thus, not luck just statistics.

So, did all of these happen to you?

 

[The Atheist]

You are still in the plane.
You are taking off in an airplane.
You are sky diving.

 

[Hilit]

Nothing has an effect on luck, since there is no such thing as 'luck'.

Luck does exist however it simply means "random chance".

So I guess you could word my original comment as:

"A black cat has no effect on events of random chance in your life."

 

[Grimoire]

I think we are missing one very important issue here. What happens if a cat that is half black and half white crosses your path? Does the white part block out the black part? Has there been any detailed studies done on this?

 

[Ersby]

I've heard that black cats are both lucky and unlucky from different people.

Or rather, that they cause good and bad fortune for others.

I guess, as cats, they're about averagely lucky themselves, otherwise they'd have died out/taken over the world by now.

 

[halofish2000]

Why is that most cats I see dead on the road are black. Not much luck on the cats part. Maybe the cat should use more luck for themselves instead of the observer. Unless the saying is true..."the only good cat is a dead cat"

 

[remirol]

(blah, blah, blah)

Yep, IHBT. IHL. IHAND. Moving on:

What happens if a tuxedo cat crosses your path?

ETA: Is it only bad luck for the half of your body that corresponds to the half of the cat that is black, and good luck to the rest? Can the cat actually be defined as entirely a shade of grey?

 

[The Atheist]

I think we are missing one very important issue here. What happens if a cat that is half black and half white crosses your path? Does the white part block out the black part? Has there been any detailed studies done on this?

No. Black & white or black & any other colour are not "black cats". Black cats are just that - black. All over. On the outside.

 

[Complexity]

Luck does exist however it simply means "random chance".

So I guess you could word my original comment as:

"A black cat has no effect on events of random chance in your life."

Sorry, but you're wrong.

There is no such thing as luck. Many deluded people believe that there is, but they are also wrong.

You can make up your own definitions for things if you wish, but don't expect anyone else to respect them.

 

[The Atheist]

Sorry, but you're wrong.

There is no such thing as luck. Many deluded people believe that there is, but they are also wrong.

You can make up your own definitions for things if you wish, but don't expect anyone else to respect them.

Ah, whereas your opinion is obviously correct.

Unlucky for you, I submit.

What do you do for an encore?

 

[EeneyMinnieMoe]

Hi
A few days ago, as I was waiting for a friend, a black cat crossed the road, in the direction of where we were heading.
I was happy about this -
But then, for some reason, the cat decided to cross the road back again.endong up where it was originally.
I would be grateful to know your expert assessment on this.
Is it still lucky? or because the cat crossed back again, does this cancel out the good luck?

Thankyou in anticipation

No man, you have double bad luck, having had a black cat cross your path not once but twice. Sorry!

Some of the the questions I have about the black-cat-crossing-the-road stuff: does it work to change direction? Turn in a wide circular motion, making wher the cat crossed not, in fact, your path? And how black does the cat have to be? Does a cat of mixed colors count? Or does it have to be an all-black cat? Does it save you if he has a white spot? Do gray cats count for anything?

 

[The Atheist]

And how black does the cat have to be? Does a cat of mixed colors count? Or does it have to be an all-black cat? Does it save you if he has a white spot? Do gray cats count for anything?

Scroll up three posts from yours.