Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

[jeremyp]

You deliberately missed the point. The supply increases according to a formula but nobody can create new bitcoins (outside of this formula)

You're splitting hairs. About 450 new Bitcoins are "mined" every day. The point is that there are more Bitcoins available today than there were yesterday and there will be more available tomorrow than there are today.

so it can't be a pyramid scheme.

Yes, I'd agree with that: it's a greater fool scam.

You can't even get consensus about changing the block size. We don't have to give serious consideration to this possibility.

It is a theoretical possibility though.

No buts! Speculation is speculation regardless of whether the object being speculated on has alternative uses (or even if it produces an income).

If I'm explaining how speculating on BTC is different to speculating on commodities, you have to accept there are buts. Everything is exactly the same as everything else if you are not allowed to say what the differences are.

 

[psionl0]

Yes, I'd agree with that: it's a greater fool scam.

Then so is speculating with any other type of asset where the sole purpose of buying it is to sell it later at a profit. (That some others may buy it for a purpose other than speculation is irrelevant).

If I'm explaining how speculating on BTC is different to speculating on commodities, you have to accept there are buts.

Not when the "buts" are irrelevant. At best, the price of some assets might not fall to zero in the event that speculators abandon them because they are being used for other purposes. It doesn't mean that buyers of the asset won't lose money if the asset is dumped en masse by speculators.

 

[jeremyp]

Then so is speculating with any other type of asset where the sole purpose of buying it is to sell it later at a profit.

And your point is....?

(That some others may buy it for a purpose other than speculation is irrelevant).

It means that you probably can't lose all your money. That's not the case with BTC.

Not when the "buts" are irrelevant.

If you are explaining the difference between BTC and commodities, the reasons why BTC is not like a commodity cannot possibly be irrelevant.

At best, the price of some assets might not fall to zero in the event that speculators abandon them because they are being used for other purposes. It doesn't mean that buyers of the asset won't lose money if the asset is dumped en masse by speculators.

Irrelevant.

You're right, this is easy. I can counter all your arguments just by telling you they are irrelevant.

The real point is that, because commodities have utility, speculators are never all going to dump them on masse. The price of a commodity can go up and down but there are always people who are willing to buy it. This is not the case with BTC. The price of BTC is sustained only by the belief that somebody will come along later and pay more for it. BTC is actually something of an outlier - almost all of the other digital "assets" have eventually gone down to zero. What is it about BTC that makes it fundamentally different?

 

[psionl0]

It means that you probably can't lose all your money.

Irrelevant.

You just contradicted yourself.

The real point is that, because commodities have utility, speculators are never all going to dump them on masse. The price of a commodity can go up and down but there are always people who are willing to buy it.

Maybe.

This is not the case with BTC. The price of BTC is sustained only by the belief that somebody will come along later and pay more for it. BTC is actually something of an outlier - almost all of the other digital "assets" have eventually gone down to zero. What is it about BTC that makes it fundamentally different?

This is just pure made up BS.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Looks like there is a fight about the upcoming update to Bitcoin Core, the software most nodes run on. The change would allow for much bigger files to be attached to coins, potentially slowing down or excluding some nodes from transfers and causing legal problems if illegal or copyright protected material is attached to a coin for exchange.

 

[psionl0]

Looks like there is a fight about the upcoming update to Bitcoin Core, the software most nodes run on. The change would allow for much bigger files to be attached to coins, potentially slowing down or excluding some nodes from transfers and causing legal problems if illegal or copyright protected material is attached to a coin for exchange.

Bitcoin is open source software. There are no copyright issues.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

You didn't understand the problem - it's not the overall software, it's what people might combine with it as part of an exchange.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Doesn't Ethereum have that ? The whole NFT thing ?

 

[dirtywick]

yes that was primarily ethereum. but even with that the file size of a jpg was too big, so they were ownership of links to jpgs stored off chain, many of which no longer exist. so obviously the whole thing was very stupid

 

[psionl0]

You didn't understand the problem - it's not the overall software, it's what people might combine with it as part of an exchange.

You can't "attach material" to a bitcoin. The software exists purely for the mining and transference of bitcoins and nobody would accept a fork that did more than that.

If you want "smart contracts" etc then that is what Ethereum is for.

 

[dirtywick]

Crypto sees more than $6 billion in liquidations

Crypto market traders were hit by record liquidations just days after Bitcoin touched an all-time high, volatility triggered in large part by the latest round of tariffs from US President Donald Trump.Cryptocurrency prices tumbled on Friday after Trump said he would impose an additional 100% tariff…

www.tradingview.com

crypto having the worst weekend on record. so far, anyway

 

[Roger Ramjets]

almost all of the other digital "assets" have eventually gone down to zero. What is it about BTC that makes it fundamentally different?

Because it was the first, and there can only be one.

 

[Hercules56]

My Bitcoin investment is up 125%.

Im rich!!!

 

[Andy_Ross]

 

[Dr.Sid]

Probably just some smart guy. Smartest one, actually. Everyone is saying it.

 

[psionl0]

crypto having the worst weekend on record. so far, anyway

Bitcoin has had price drops of more than 40% in a single day and sustained price falls of more than 90% in the past. This is not even close.

Bitcoin to USD Chart - BitcoinWisdom.io

Bitcoin to USD Realtime Charts.

bitcoinwisdom.io

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

The Federal Reserve does annual surveys regarding crypto and it's use. This article discusses both the Fed survey and the Pew Research Survey from 2021

Reason: Fed Report Shows Who's Actually Using Crypto and How - James Madison Institute

Millions of lower-income or unbanked people are more likely to use cryptocurrency as a payment method. May 31,...

jamesmadison.org

About 12-16% of the population is estimated to have held or used crypto.
About 2-3% have used it as a payment mechanism or for goods/services. That amounts to about 6 million people in the US.
About 13% of those who made crypto transactions don't have a bank account and 27% don't have a credit card.

I wonder what population that 2-3% of actually is, given the think tank doesn't elaborate. My guess is the population isn't US residents but US residents who have held or currently hold crypto scams, a much smaller number.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Drugs? Weapons?

Extremely unlikely in the first case, the gangs will want cash from their client not a highly volatile, easily tradeable and not very liquid electronic coin. For the second case, possibly from a legal dealer who's into that stuff.

While I would say that its highly probable that organised criminal groups have a strategy for using crypto currencies, my thought is that the logical place to use them is in the money laundering phase. Set up a coin essentially as a rugpull, use the money you want to launder as the seed capital, wait until release and the price inflates then pull out your money in clean denominations and collapse the coin system behind you.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I was intrigued by the claim that Bitcoin is no longer usable as a currency because of the high transaction times. It turns out that this may have been the case a year ago, but is no longer so.

According to ycharts.com confirmation times are down from 149.87 last year to about 7.263 today. I haven't been able find out what unit this is, but I assume it is seconds, Periodically, the value has been much higher. For instance in 2023 there was a brief period when the value was 25809.

If the unit is in seconds, 7 seconds is a long time to wait for a transaction to go through, but not impossibly long. You can accept long wait times when buying high-value assets (like housing, or drugs), but it is a serious obstacle for the use in a super market. I wonder how the transaction times influence the use of online casinos.

In El Salvador the Bitcoin involvement is gradually being wound down, but transaction times do not seem to be a reason. Criminals' hacking stealing the contents of people's Chivo wallets has eroded confidence in Bitcoin, according to Bitcoin in El Salvador^WP

The problem with bitcoin in El Salvador was that it was only ever a niche usage thing. The vast majority of people to use their Chivo wallet did exactly one thing, extract the tiny amount of bitcoin preloaded and converted it into $50.

 

[psionl0]

Drugs? Weapons?

Extremely unlikely in the first case, the gangs will want cash from their client not a highly volatile, easily tradeable and not very liquid electronic coin.

If you don't know the answer then say so. Don't make it up. Just because they use suitcases full of cash in TV movies doesn't mean that this is the exclusive method of payment in the underworld.