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Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

psionl0 said:
It doesn't matter why you say that. It is still a false analogy for reasons that have been given many times before - not the least being that predictions that the price of bitcoin is about to permanently collapse (this time for sure) have never materialized.
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No one ever argued that it was immanent. Bitcoin will go to some approximation of zero eventually because it provides net negative value; it costs money to maintain and doesn’t create any value of it's own. How long that will take to happen is anyone’s guess.
 
Scopedog said:
I'm not predicting it's collapse or any future development.
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You called bitcoin a "tulip bulb investment simulator". There has to be a reason why you compared it to an investment craze that flared briefly and burned out suddenly. I doubt that it is because you wanted readers to make the opposite inference.
 
lomiller said:
No one ever argued that it was immanent. Bitcoin will go to some approximation of zero eventually because it provides net negative value; it costs money to maintain and doesn’t create any value of it's own. How long that will take to happen is anyone’s guess.
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All irrelevant reasons. The only reason that bitcoin will lose value permanently is when all investors stop putting money into it forever.
 
psionl0 said:
You called bitcoin a "tulip bulb investment simulator". There has to be a reason why you compared it to an investment craze that flared briefly and burned out suddenly. I doubt that it is because you wanted readers to make the opposite inference.
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A valid point. However, bitcoin and cryptocurrency seem at least slightly closer to tulip bulbs than a traditional currency right now. It may be more accurate for me to say that it can't be compared with anything- including traditional currency or speculative investments. My thoughts on this aren't inflexible. You're the only poster in this thread who has accurately predicted the movement of bitcoin by saying 'we don't know.' You've been right 100% of the time and I unironically respect that.
 
I have a problem with the world 'simulator'. Simulation is something different than reality. BTC is just as real investment as tulip bulb. You invest real money. You win / lose real money.
 
Scopedog said:
A valid point. However, bitcoin and cryptocurrency seem at least slightly closer to tulip bulbs than a traditional currency right now. It may be more accurate for me to say that it can't be compared with anything- including traditional currency or speculative investments. My thoughts on this aren't inflexible. You're the only poster in this thread who has accurately predicted the movement of bitcoin by saying 'we don't know.' You've been right 100% of the time and I unironically respect that.
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There is a game aspect to bitcoin. Every mining computer is repeatedly guessing the "nonce" of the next block. The first computer to correctly guess the nonce "wins" the block.

Your problem is that you conflated this purely technical aspect of bitcoin with the speculative aspect of buying and selling the stuff. In this aspect, bitcoin is no different to any other speculative instrument.

Yes, a fiat currency backed by a "responsible" government is usually more reliable than bitcoin. Currency traders may even "hodl" some of the more stable international currencies.
 
lomiller said:
What is it you think is “irrelevant” the fact that no one said the things you claimed or the fact that bitcoin represents net negative economic value?
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Neither. It is the fact that you think that these "reasons" predict the eventual demise of bitcoin.
 
psionl0 said:
Your problem is that you conflated this purely technical aspect of bitcoin with the speculative aspect of buying and selling the stuff. In this aspect, bitcoin is no different to any other speculative instrument.
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People use grain, speculators estimate whether that usage is going to go up or down and make their “bets” accordingly. This serves to help stabilize prices and protects producers from wide swings in price between planting and harvest. Currency speculators estimate supply and demand for money on international markets which helps smooth over international trade. Speculators in the stock and bond market look for over valued and undervalued

Buying bitcoin is nothing like either of these, so the statement that “it’s just like any other speculative instrument” is false. Other speculative instruments serve economic functions and have an underlying reason why speculators think the price will go up/down.
 
psionl0 said:
Neither. It is the fact that you think that these "reasons" predict the eventual demise of bitcoin.
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It’s a pretty safe bet that when something is useless and expensive to maintain it will eventually go away. It seems even the criminals are moving away from bitcoin and using other crypto currencies that suit their needs better.
 
jrhowell said:
I see bitcoin as being more akin to casinos. I see neither going away in the near future because they both play off human nature.
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IMO speculating on bit coin lacks the immediate endorphin rush and immediate gratification of placing a bet in a casino, so it’s not going to have the same type of appeal.

When bubbles are forming you do get something akin to this as people go back to check the price and see that it's gone up. When the bubble is bursting you get the opposite effect which usually drives the asset below fair value. The problem with bitcoin is that there base value for it to gravitate to because it has no underlying utility.
 
lomiller said:
When bubbles are forming you do get something akin to this as people go back to check the price and see that it's gone up. When the bubble is bursting you get the opposite effect which usually drives the asset below fair value. The problem with bitcoin is that there base value for it to gravitate to because it has no underlying utility.
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Give it up. Better posters than you have tried for 10 years to convince us that bitcoin is in a bubble that is about to pop - any day now.

They all have egg on their faces.
 
psionl0 said:
Give it up. Better posters than you have tried for 10 years to convince us that bitcoin is in a bubble that is about to pop - any day now.

They all have egg on their faces.
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"Better posters than you"?

What does that even mean? Why the insult, all of a sudden?

Sheesh, you're so ******* protective of Bitcoin, it's sad.
 
psionl0 said:
Give it up. Better posters than you have tried for 10 years to convince us that bitcoin is in a bubble that is about to pop - any day now.

They all have egg on their faces.
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Per my post yesterday “about to pop” does not accurately represent anyone’s statements AFAICT. Saying there is a bubble that will pop eventually does not imply anything about when it will happen.
 
lomiller said:
Saying there is a bubble that will pop eventually does not imply anything about when it will happen.
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Saying that there is a bubble doesn't mean that there is a bubble. Saying that the "bubble" has lasted 10 years so far is meaningless.

Bitcoin has shown that all your theories about utility are irrelevant when it comes to pricing a commodity.
 
psionl0 said:
Saying that there is a bubble doesn't mean that there is a bubble. Saying that the "bubble" has lasted 10 years so far is meaningless.

Bitcoin has shown that all your theories about utility are irrelevant when it comes to pricing a commodity.
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A financial bubble is a significant increase in the price of an asset that does not reflect an increase in its true value. Bubbles are often based on a belief that the asset's price will continue to rise. People pay more because they expect to sell for more. This conviction pushes up prices even more

The definition seems to fit regardless of how long the bubble lasts.
 
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