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Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

Its almost as if using an extremely volatile, unbacked investment as currency is a truly stupid idea.

Sure, you can get rich of Bitcoin if you are lucky, but any coin that can change its value by that much in a single day is pointless as actual currency.
 
psionl0 said:
Historically, every single person who held on to their bitcoins has eventually been "lucky".
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That does not apply to current history.
There is no reason to suppose the president of El Salvadore will be a folk hero in his own time.
 
psionl0 said:
Of course you would predict that for the first time ever, the price of bitcoin will never equal its previous high.

That guarantees that the hodlers' luck will continue. :p
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I think that is more irony but I need to do some figures of speech refresher course.
 
psionl0 said:
Historically, every single person who held on to their bitcoins has eventually been "lucky".
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Except all those that lost money to them.

But even then. As a currency it is currently pointless
Let's say you are a company and agree to pay your employees X bitcoins / month.

And JUST as you are about to pay out Elon Musk tweets and the price changes by 40% within an hour.
Now either you just lost all your profit, or your employees lost 40% of their wages, through no action of your own. Not something that either party should want.
As a gambling investment sure. But not currency.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
Except all those that lost money to them.
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You mean those who panicked and locked in a loss? Sure but your claim was that only the "lucky" can make a profit on bitcoin. That's not true. All you have to do is keep "hodling" them and the price will eventually be higher than what you paid for them. Works every time.

Lukraak_Sisser said:
But even then. As a currency it is currently pointless
Let's say you are a company and agree to pay your employees X bitcoins / month.

And JUST as you are about to pay out Elon Musk tweets and the price changes by 40% within an hour.
Now either you just lost all your profit, or your employees lost 40% of their wages, through no action of your own. Not something that either party should want.
As a gambling investment sure. But not currency.
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The price is driven by speculators and is thus volatile (though 40% every hour is an exaggeration).

But even if speculators didn't constantly push the price around, it would not be useful as a currency because its fixed supply makes it deflationary and transaction fees discourage spending.

You are not saying anything new (just saying it emotionally). Bitcoin is primarily designed to be "hodled" and secondarily to transfer large sums of wealth rapidly around without interference by anybody else.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
Except all those that lost money to them.

But even then. As a currency it is currently pointless
Let's say you are a company and agree to pay your employees X bitcoins / month.

And JUST as you are about to pay out Elon Musk tweets and the price changes by 40% within an hour.
Now either you just lost all your profit, or your employees lost 40% of their wages, through no action of your own. Not something that either party should want.
As a gambling investment sure. But not currency.
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Come on. Even Elon didn't do 40% in an hour. He did 15%. Which is quite normal. What was unprecedented was it happened inside 20 minutes. That was the 29.1.2021 tweet. But all his subsequent tweets gained less and slower reactions.
 
psionl0 said:
Of course you would predict that for the first time ever, the price of bitcoin will never equal its previous high.

That guarantees that the hodlers' luck will continue. :p
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Probably, but not necessarily.
The current technical picture is a very complete distribution top. And why should the market cap of all cryptos be any particular figure, currently 2 trillion. If cryptos are to be a means of third world participation in a banking protocol does any particular crypto need to appreciate in value? I think 15k bitcoin by christmas is a real possibility.

Cries of bitcoin going to "x", where "x" is a behemoth of a number remind me of Lewis Carroll:

"Just the place for a Snark!" the Bellman cried,
As he landed his crew with care;
Supporting each man on the top of the tide
By a finger entwined in his hair.

"Just the place for a Snark! I have said it twice:
That alone should encourage the crew.
Just the place for a Snark! I have said it thrice:
What I tell you three times is true."
 
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Bitcoin is now bigger than any stock and not in the news cycle.
This is important I think.
 
New High

Bitcoin has just hit $66,000 US. This eclipses the previous high of $64,895 US on April 14 this year and marks a recovery from $28,600 on June 22 this year - the fastest recovery from a major crash ever.

All the news about the Chinese crackdown had no effect on bitcoin's continued price rise. Of course, even the Chinese government can't compete against Samson's "bitcoin will collapse" predictions. :D
 
psionl0 said:
Bitcoin has just hit $66,000 US. This eclipses the previous high of $64,895 US on April 14 this year and marks a recovery from $28,600 on June 22 this year - the fastest recovery from a major crash ever.

All the news about the Chinese crackdown had no effect on bitcoin's continued price rise. Of course, even the Chinese government can't compete against Samson's "bitcoin will collapse" predictions. :D
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In terms of ROI percentage, Dogecoin performed a similar recovery in less than 24 hours recently.
 
Prometheus said:
In terms of ROI percentage, Dogecoin performed a similar recovery in less than 24 hours recently.
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I had forgotten about dogecoin. I assumed that the joke went stale years ago.

However interest in dogecoin seems to have surged from the beginning of this year with the price rising from negligible in January this year and peaking at US $0.66 in May this year. The price has been skating around the US $0.30 mark since July this year.

https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin
 
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