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Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

Bitcoin has been rising. Now at $47k.

Following an interesting series of dips followed by increasing peaks.

There are bitcoin "mining" companies with significant VC funding. Mining is the one area where bitcoin is not zero sum. Strong vested interest in seeing higher prices. Especially before the next halving.

Noticed a lot of ads on Youtube for "crypto." The theme is "Money makes the World go round," intoned in a chaotic set of images then: "Crypto makes the World go forward" in a nice calm voice.

Funny thing is that I opened up a Youtube video of Molly White, a well known crypto skeptic and Wikipedian correcting someone about copywrite, attribution, and Wikipedia. The first ad was the Crypto makes the World go Forward one. The ads have been ubiquitous.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
Ooh Samson's advocating the patented Tim Nice-but-Dim investment strategy: "buy high, sell low". Bold move.
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You are despoiling your nice prediction of what happens when you add derivatives to hot air.
 
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psionl0 said:
Crypto is much worse than that though, it's immoral on so many levels and causes actual harm on a massive scale.
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Selective bias. Speculation and fraud occurs on a much wider global scale with "regular" currencies and is potentially far more damaging. Remember 2008?
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Three issues:

- Fraud, speculation, etc. might happen with "regular" currencies. The question is, what proportion of transactions are problematic with (for example) the Dollar/Euro/etc. as opposed to Bitcoin/Dogecoin/etc.) Yeah, you could find a billion dollar fraud scheme involving dollars, but that is tiny compared to the trillions of dollars of legitimate transactions. Crypto schemes may be smaller in scale but I suspect they make up a greater portion of transactions.

- Fraud happens with regular currencies, but much of the fraud isn't due to te nature of the currencies themselves. (Its just that your Dollar/Euro/etc. is just the medium used in the exchange.) On the other hand, many of the problems involving crypto center on the nature of the currency itself. (The unregulated nature leads to more pump-and-dump schemes for example)

- Fraud is not the only issue with bitcoin/etc. You also have significant energy usage by the computers that mine and store bitcoin.

(Not sure if that has been brought up in the thread before... lots of posts and I haven't been reading it regularly.)
 
Segnosaur said:
- Fraud happens with regular currencies, but much of the fraud isn't due to te nature of the currencies themselves. (Its just that your Dollar/Euro/etc. is just the medium used in the exchange.)
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You seem to believe that if it weren't for cryptos, fraud would occur on a much smaller scale.

The truth is that it doesn't matter what the product is, fraud is at epidemic levels. Cryptos make only a small percentage of the products that are at the centre of fraudulent schemes and it is much easier to avoid being a victim of a crypto scam than with other types of products. And don't forget that the international trade in financial derivatives far exceeds that of goods and services and there is plenty of scope for things to go disastrously wrong (as we saw in 2008).

Energy consumption is a bad thing and only time will tell if POS (or some other viable alternative) will displace POW.
 
And it's IMHO only the beginning. I had a dream about 180k. Not that I give it much weight, but some people predict even more, with peak toward the end of 2025.
If there is a pattern in BTC, it's 4 years cycle. It grows before halvings .. and it grows about a year after it. And we didn't even hit this year's halving.
We might be at ATH, but it actually might be time to buy more.
 
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So how many times are we up to now? (The amount of times one could have purchased Bitcoin and retired comfortably.)
 
Well, since last ATH in November 2021 it only dropped to 25%. It would be great investment if you bought the bottom, but not something you can retire with.
January 2019 was 20 times lower than it is now. Now that's beginning to be interesting.
But IMHO the real fun starts when you bought before 2017.
Btw. I'm trading since 2017 bubble, and with all that still pretty insane opportunities, and the price being at ATH again .. I'm about where I started :D
 
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For those interested in Bitcoin mining, there are regular public companies engaged in it as it's rather capital intensive. Public companies have to publish regular, audited reports that provide really deep detail on their operations. Good way to understand the drivers and vested interests behind Bitcoin as well as understand Bitcoin itself.

We are a bitcoin mining company. We have no intention to mine, purchase, or hold any other cryptocurrency at this time or in the foreseeable future (although we held a de minimis amount of USD Coin as of December 31, 2023). We independently own and operate five data centers in Georgia and three data centers in Mississippi for a total developed power capacity of approximately 420 megawatts (“MW”). We have completed an additional 50 MW of data center infrastructure in Sandersville, GA which is pending the commissioning of a utility transformer before it goes into service and we are currently finalizing the development of an additional 30 MW expansion at our Dalton, GA locations. We have a partner in Massena, NY that hosts 50 MW for us. We do not currently host miners for any other companies. We design our proprietary infrastructure to responsibly support bitcoin, the world’s most important digital commodity and an essential tool for financial independence and inclusion. We strive to leave the planet better than we found it by investing in communities that source low-carbon energy, like wind, solar, nuclear, and hydro. We cultivate trust and transparency among our employees, the communities we operate in, and the people around the world who depend on bitcoin.
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Update to a shelf registration:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/827876/000119312524080832/d793236d424b5.htm
 
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