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Bitcoin - Part 2

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Of course the price is never constant, or even same across several exchanges.
But if you have drop 10%, and then the price stays within 1% fro 2 days, I would certainly call it 'the drop has stopped'. At least for the time being.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Of course the price is never constant, or even same across several exchanges.
But if you have drop 10%, and then the price stays within 1% fro 2 days, I would certainly call it 'the drop has stopped'. At least for the time being.
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So if you were walking down some stairs it would be 'hey look, the floor is dropping!' shortly followed by 'never mind, it's level again', over and over...
 
Worm said:
Well of course it has. If it didn't - it wouldn't be after a drop - it would still be in the process of dropping. It's a tautology.

Now, whether it has always increased after a drop of x%, rather than continuing to drop is (I imagine) a potentially interesting point to examine, but I don't know nearly enough about crypto-currencies to know whether they stand up to that kind of analysis.

nb. I have no particular interest in Bitcoin and whether it goes up or down, it's not my jam at all, but data very much is, so things like this stand out to me.
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Those who got in prior to Oct 2017 have still not seen a drop below their buy in price. The further back you go, the early adopters of BTC are further ahead in retaining their buy in value. Only those who came late to the party have been experiencing the recent decline at a loss.

The steep decline got me recently as well for the moment. I purchased my day trading coins back at $5250.00, a full $1000 less than I had sold them for. Had I waited a few more days I could have seen a $2000 per coin profit. Ouch. But, that's "for the moment" so I'm not particularly concerned as I've not seen a monetary loss from my recent buy back but I certainly would have liked to have had the $2000 per coin difference between what I sold and what I bought back. At worst it was a sour call on my part and just plain bad luck. Accepting the bad with the good is only fair at times. Karma and all that.

The crypto news has been extremely bad lately further driving the price lower. Of course there have always been those who cash in their BTC before the holiday season as well. Kinda like a Christmas club investment. That in conjunction with the flood of bad news had more bite than I anticipated.

A 75% loss in value is a repeat of historical losses for BTC, a little above that now for investors who bought in at the top. The percentages over time are interesting, however, the numbers don't make any difference. The news drives the price up or down. Stubbornness seems to be what works for me.
Chris B.
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
Those who got in prior to Oct 2017 have still not seen a drop below their buy in price. The further back you go, the early adopters of BTC are further ahead in retaining their buy in value. Only those who came late to the party have been experiencing the recent decline at a loss.
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And these same people have not realized any profit because they haven't sold.

The value of their holdings have been on a downward trend for more than a year now, which is many times longer than any previous Bitcoin downward trend.

It's very likely that for these people the wise strategy is to sell now and realize what profit they have.

ChrisBFRPKY said:
The steep decline got me recently as well for the moment. I purchased my day trading coins back at $5250.00, a full $1000 less than I had sold them for. Had I waited a few more days I could have seen a $2000 per coin profit. Ouch. But, that's "for the moment" so I'm not particularly concerned as I've not seen a monetary loss from my recent buy back but I certainly would have liked to have had the $2000 per coin difference between what I sold and what I bought back. At worst it was a sour call on my part and just plain bad luck. Accepting the bad with the good is only fair at times. Karma and all that.
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It's up to you now to make a decision to cut your losses or hold on. Remember that past performance is not indicative of future performance.
 
Mycroft said:
The value of their holdings have been on a downward trend for more than a year now, which is many times longer than any previous Bitcoin downward trend.
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FALSE. The previous major downward trend from November 2013 lasted nearly 3 years. There have been other sustained price falls (most notably from July 2011 after MtGox was hacked) but these lasted less than a full year.
 
psionl0 said:
FALSE. The previous major downward trend from November 2013 lasted nearly 3 years. There have been other sustained price falls (most notably from July 2011 after MtGox was hacked) but these lasted less than a full year.
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Bitcoin joined the main news cycle during the final runup, and is getting patchy coverage now. This is a different matter to that 3 year decline. This pattern is similar to the gold runup to $1800 and the subsequent distribution pattern before a steep drop that lasts to this day. The difference is gold has intrinsic value so will always have an above zero price.
 
Samson said:
Bitcoin joined the main news cycle during the final runup, and is getting patchy coverage now. This is a different matter to that 3 year decline. This pattern is similar to the gold runup to $1800 and the subsequent distribution pattern before a steep drop that lasts to this day. The difference is gold has intrinsic value so will always have an above zero price.
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It's ALWAYS different this time.

And there is no such thing as "intrinsic value". Something is only worth what others are willing to pay for it. There is a demand for gold mainly for its use as a store of value. There is also a demand for bitcoin beyond its speculative value for the reasons I listed in post #3167.
 
This is the biggest weekly decline in percentage terms in bitcoin history.

The supply of cryptocoins is infinite so they have a combined value of zero

1/infinity = zero

You heard it here.
 
psionl0 said:
Millions of times. :rolleyes:
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But do you agree or disagree with the statement:

The supply of cryptocoins is infinte.

I know that yes or no questions are the bain of politicians and fanatics, but since you are clearly neither....
 
A miracle will see a Christmas price above 2k.
Miracles don't happen.
You heard it here.
 
Samson said:
But do you agree or disagree with the statement:

The supply of cryptocoins is infinte.
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Of course not! The supply of bitcoins is limited to 21M. There are other cryptos around but there is no evidence that they are tapping into the bitcoin market. In fact, most of them track bitcoin's price.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
$1000 a day with virtually no effort, wow! And the $60000 you need to get started isn't much if you are serious about making a living out of it.

However making money this way relies on 'predictable' short term volatility. If the price continues to slide you could lose money in the long run because the the 90% you HODL is going down in value, and if the short-term price stabilizes then variations may become too small and too random to profit from.

Right now the price only seems to be changing by $100-200 over periods of a few days to a week, so with only $6000 in play I don't think $1000 profit per day is achievable.

Since it had just dropped more than $200 I expected there would be a recovery a few days later, and sure enough...
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25 Nov 2018. $3906 and looking to me like it is falling off a cliff!
 
PartSkeptic said:
25 Nov 2018. $3906 and looking to me like it is falling off a cliff!
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But why now?

The stock markets have been losing quite badly recently. I thought that Bitcoin would be a refuge of sorts in a downturn. I'm a bit surprised that it is taking a dive now.
 
I think it started dropping before the BCH fork. I'm not saying it was because of it. But it felt like someone wanted to put big money into on of the BCH branch.
Didn't the stock drop come few days after that ? BTC wasn't looking too health at that time IIRC.
But then the BTC drop went on and on .. some people I know indeed panicked and pulled. Me too. Some hodl. God bless them.
 
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