Bitcoin - Part 2

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kayle said:
how could even bitcoin work as currency? in constant dividing?
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Yes, bitcoin can be subdivided into units as small as 0.00000001 BTC (a "Satoshi").

However, it has been pretty well established in this thread that bitcoin is not practical as a currency because it is volatile, it has relatively long confirmation times, limited transaction volumes and volatile (and sometimes quite high) transaction fees. It it were not for the volatility, overlaying technology could be used to overcome the transaction speeds and fees. You can even use it directly to purchase quite pricey items (like a car).

However, I doubt that a car dealer would want to deal with more than a tiny fraction of their purchases and sales in bitcoin while it is so volatile. They could either see themselves selling stock for a massive loss or see the value of their bitcoin proceeds fall dramatically. (The reverse could also be true but that is not a reason to stake the viability of your business on bitcoin).
 
psionl0 said:
Yes, bitcoin can be subdivided into units as small as 0.00000001 BTC (a "Satoshi").

However, it has been pretty well established in this thread that bitcoin is not practical as a currency because it is volatile, it has relatively long confirmation times, limited transaction volumes and volatile (and sometimes quite high) transaction fees. It it were not for the volatility, overlaying technology could be used to overcome the transaction speeds and fees. You can even use it directly to purchase quite pricey items (like a car).

However, I doubt that a car dealer would want to deal with more than a tiny fraction of their purchases and sales in bitcoin while it is so volatile. They could either see themselves selling stock for a massive loss or see the value of their bitcoin proceeds fall dramatically. (The reverse could also be true but that is not a reason to stake the viability of your business on bitcoin).
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Bitcoin needs you as a salesman. :)
 
psionl0 said:
If You have failed to divert attention away from your claim that this is the absolute final bubble and after that, bitcoin will be no more.
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Now cite my words to that effect to which your post is referring. Quote me, where I have written that.

ETA Here is a post of mine to start you off.
Craig B said:
It may not die, as I have stated many times. Railways didn't die in 1846. But the bubble will burst and people who bought at bubble inflated prices will suffer irretrievable loss. That is very much the most probable outcome.
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ETA2 here's another post from the past.
Craig B said:
South Sea peaked at £1000. People who bought it there lost a great deal of money, but the big pop only happens once in each bubble episode. Sometimes a previous small movement is mistaken for the big one, as was March 26 1929 on the NYSE. The big one came in October.

Is the current Bitcoin price fall the Big One? I don't know. Could well be. Hindsight will tell us. Prediction in detail is impracticable, but the general pattern of these events is recognisable.
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A technical analysis event is transpiring.
A butterfly in times square creates a catastrophe in LA.
We might be seeing this thing implode, I will show my workings.
 
Craig B said:
Now cite my words to that effect to which your post is referring. Quote me, where I have written that.
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You have been saying pretty much that since you thought that you were the first poster in this thread to ever find fault with bitcoin.

Craig B said:
ETA Here is a post of mine to start you off.
But the bubble will burst and people who bought at bubble inflated prices will suffer irretrievable loss.
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ETA2 here's another post from the past.
....but the big pop only happens once in each bubble episode.
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"Irretrievable loss" is very much a euphemism for "end of bitcoin". If the price will never reach a previous level then speculators will lose interest in it. You yourself have predicted a price of "cents".

Incidentally you must have missed the post where I made my position on bitcoin bubbles clear:
psionl0 said:
It's actually quite easy to lose money on bitcoin. Simply buy into it when the price is booming then chicken out when the price nose dives.

Sure, if you wait long enough, the odds are favourable that you will recover your investment (it has happened every single time so far) and you might still possibly end up with a large profit.

Unfortunately, "odds are favourable" doesn't sound that great when you can see your savings evaporating away.
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psionl0 said:
You have been saying pretty much that since you thought that you were the first poster in this thread to ever find fault with bitcoin.


"Irretrievable loss" is very much a euphemism for "end of bitcoin". If the price will never reach a previous level then speculators will lose interest in it. You yourself have predicted a price of "cents".

Incidentally you must have missed the post where I made my position on bitcoin bubbles clear:
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Cite my words. Now you're talking nonsense. "Very much a euphemism". What sort of rubbish is that?

I wrote "it may not die, as I have stated many times." That wasn't very much a euphemism. No, it was a plain statement. When you are replying to it, I am entitled to insist you respond honestly to what I wrote, and that you don't spout fabrications or delusions.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Because Bitcoin provides anonymity. IMHO early adopters valued this feature above all.

And yes, volatility is problem. Steam gave up on Bitcoin .. but after quite long time allowing it for purchases. And there are still many shops which do allow it. So you can't just say 'it will never work as currency' .. it works as currency right now.
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Add in the cost and time of getting the transaction confirmed. You can see a significant shift in value between when you agree on a price and when the actual transaction goes through.
 
psionl0 said:
(snip)
Sure, if you wait long enough, the odds are favourable that you will recover your investment (it has happened every single time so far) and you might still possibly end up with a large profit.

(snip)
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Your comment provoked an image in my mind.

A skeleton at the entrance of a dusty cave, covered with cobwebs.

Clutched in his hand is a bunch of bitcoins.

The caption: Still waiting.
 
Craig B said:
Cite my words. Now you're talking nonsense. "Very much a euphemism". What sort of rubbish is that?

I wrote "it may not die, as I have stated many times." That wasn't very much a euphemism. No, it was a plain statement. When you are replying to it, I am entitled to insist you respond honestly to what I wrote, and that you don't spout fabrications or delusions.
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Suit yourself. According to you, bitcoin won't die, it will just decline permanently and that is a totally different thing.
 
psionl0 said:
Suit yourself. According to you, bitcoin won't die, it will just decline permanently and that is a totally different thing.
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As I have said before; unless you accept that it will decline, you are stating that the boom will last forever. Be assured that it won't. When will it definitively decline? I don't know.

It is you, and not I who are making the point that Bitcoin may survive. Yes it may survive for ever, and blockchain may well become an established technology as railways have done. But even though railways established themselves permanently, the value of their shares started to reflect the real value of railways as transport undertakings, and not the fanciful inflated values of the bubble mania of 1846. If BTC survives it will throw off the bubble values and assume its real value as a medium of payment and a store of wealth. What is that real value? - $19,600 per coin? Maybe but probably not. If not, then it will decline permanently from the bubble price of late 2017.

That's what I'm saying; and not a euphemism in sight, eh?
 
Craig B said:
As I have said before; unless you accept that it will decline, you are stating that the boom will last forever. Be assured that it won't. When will it definitively decline? I don't know.
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I have listed several possible future scenarios for bitcoin.

You have listed one.
 
psionl0 said:
I have listed several possible future scenarios for bitcoin.

You have listed one.
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My "one" is that the boom will not last forever. The alternative possibility is that it will last forever. That makes two possible situations, at this elementary level of complexity. I say it won't last forever. If you say it will, good and well. That's what you appear to be saying.

The fact that Bitcoin may survive in one form or another isn't an issue of great importance. The South Sea Company survived (at its modest realistic value as a humble manager of government assets) until 1853. But people who bought its shares at £1,000 or even £100, in the 1720 mania, suffered irretrievable loss of much or most of their investment.
 
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PartSkeptic said:
Has this bounce peaked yet? Seems like a turn-down might have started.
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The algorithm generated a powerful sell signal on a 3 hour chart basis at 10,680. I would assess this as having a 75% chance of driving the price down to 8700
 
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