Bitcoin - Part 2

[Samson]

There is a good buy signal in place, I might add, what was never acknowledged was the decline from 8430 to 7851 on the last proposition.

 

[GlennB]

Very good mediation.
I am short 8430, last 8368.
48 hours after original post is the price.

eta 11 hours 50 to run.

Now about 9 hours

There is a good buy signal in place, I might add, what was never acknowledged was the decline from 8430 to 7851 on the last proposition.

Just trying to get this clear, you're short at 8430 - for a fixed 48hr period - with several hours to go, but noted a 'buy' opportunity along the way? Why are you mentioning the latter?

 

[Samson]

Now about 9 hours



Just trying to get this clear, you're short at 8430 - for a fixed 48hr period - with several hours to go, but noted a 'buy' opportunity along the way? Why are you mentioning the latter?

Just to speed up the cogs in your brain.
I repeatedly point out that direction is the TA smart science.
If you can't sell at 8430. and take profit sometime during a descent to 7851, you are matching my inexpertise.

 

[GlennB]

Deleted. Never mind

 

[psionl0]

Another sell confirmed by the 2 hour chart.
8430 currently.
Expect 7400 in the next 2 days.

48 hours later, the price has fallen to ............ 8730!

Another chicken comes home to roost.

The price did manage to fall briefly to 7820 over the last couple of days so you can call this a victory if you don't want to be taken seriously.

 

[xjx388]

There is a good buy signal in place, I might add, what was never acknowledged was the decline from 8430 to 7851 on the last proposition.

The problem is that it seems the TA is unable to tell us precisely when to sell. If I shorted at 8430, how did I know when the moment to fulfill the contract was (can we even decide that or are these contracts on a set time frame?), especially given that the price fluctuations are so fast? 7851 was so fast, you would have needed lightning reflexes to lock it in.

I can predict directional movement on bitcoin with ease . . . all I have to do is say, the price will be down from it's current price and then claim victory when it's lower. The trick is to have some precision that I can act on and turn into profit. That's what seems to be missing from the equation.

 

[Craig B]

The problem is that it seems the TA is unable to tell us precisely when to sell. If I shorted at 8430, how did I know when the moment to fulfill the contract was (can we even decide that or are these contracts on a set time frame?), especially given that the price fluctuations are so fast? 7851 was so fast, you would have needed lightning reflexes to lock it in.

I can predict directional movement on bitcoin with ease . . . all I have to do is say, the price will be down from it's current price and then claim victory when it's lower. The trick is to have some precision that I can act on and turn into profit. That's what seems to be missing from the equation.

If it wasn't missing everybody could become rich playing the markets, and in the case of assets generating no income it is surely simple to see why that can't happen. One person's profit comes from another person's loss. Therefore there is no possible source of information that will consistently produce profits and avoid losses. As I've pointed out before; even if a formula could be found, buyers and sellers would take account of its predictions in making their decisions, and that would invalidate the predictions yet again. If matters were otherwise, everyone could be like King Midas in the story.

 

[Samson]

The problem is that it seems the TA is unable to tell us precisely when to sell. If I shorted at 8430, how did I know when the moment to fulfill the contract was (can we even decide that or are these contracts on a set time frame?), especially given that the price fluctuations are so fast? 7851 was so fast, you would have needed lightning reflexes to lock it in.

I can predict directional movement on bitcoin with ease . . . all I have to do is say, the price will be down from it's current price and then claim victory when it's lower. The trick is to have some precision that I can act on and turn into profit. That's what seems to be missing from the equation.

8420 when I posted there was a buy signal in place, now 8863.

That is what I mean by direction. The lowest price since that post was 8374.

I am trying to be helpful and make usable forecasts.

Eta:
On platforms these days, on a basic smart phone it is possible to open and close a contract at a profit or loss in as little as a few seconds.
There were about 15 hours between the suggestion to go short at 8430 and the 6.8% decline to 7851. The highest price during this time was 8587.9, giving a profit/loss ratio of (8430-7851)/(8587.9-8430) or 3.66.

Of course sighon is going to dine out forever on the failure to go the full 12.2% decline to 7400 I predicted.

There might be a few real traders who would like a few more predictions of my style.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Yeah, really few.

 

[xjx388]

If it wasn't missing everybody could become rich playing the markets, and in the case of assets generating no income it is surely simple to see why that can't happen. One person's profit comes from another person's loss. Therefore there is no possible source of information that will consistently produce profits and avoid losses. As I've pointed out before; even if a formula could be found, buyers and sellers would take account of its predictions in making their decisions, and that would invalidate the predictions yet again. If matters were otherwise, everyone could be like King Midas in the story.

Well, yes, that's what I'm saying. Therefore, I don't think Technical Analysis is what Samson is making it out to be: A reliable method of predicting ups and downs that enables consistent, long-term profit.

 

[xjx388]

8420 when I posted there was a buy signal in place, now 8863.

That is what I mean by direction. The lowest price since that post was 8374.

OK. But what I'm getting at is that you predicted yesterday that 7400 was coming in two days and hinted at further drops than that. Then, in the midst of that same two-day window, you also said the model showed a buy signal. So is one supposed to be short until the 7400 hits but also be long when the buy signal hit? I will admit that if I had bought 1 bitcoin when you said buy, I could currently sell it for a small profit. But that profit would have been seriously dented by the short position you advocated a day before that. I can match the same +/- by simply guessing.

Honestly, from an outside perspective, it sounds like you are simply saying, "The price is going to go down and then up, so time your buys/sells-longs/shorts accordingly." Which is pretty much what I can come up with by simple guesses.

I am trying to be helpful and make usable forecasts.

But surely you can see how "It's going to go down, short it. But it's also going up so buy it." isn't too helpful unless we know precisely when those events will happen.

Eta:
On platforms these days, on a basic smart phone it is possible to open and close a contract at a profit or loss in as little as a few seconds.
There were about 15 hours between the suggestion to go short at 8430 and the 6.8% decline to 7851. The highest price during this time was 8587.9, giving a profit/loss ratio of (8430-7851)/(8587.9-8430) or 3.66.

Well, yes, but your prediction was 7400. If someone was waiting for that, how would they know that they should actually cash out at 7851? Would they even be able to if they had a 48 hour short contract?

Of course sighon is going to dine out forever on the failure to go the full 12.2% decline to 7400 I predicted.

To be complete, you predicted 7400 and then doubled down with saying "the great plunge" was on the way. By any objective measure, those predictions did not come true. Now, inevitably, there will be a big plunge at some point given the volatility of bitcoin, just as there will be big rises. But, unless you can provide more precision, you can't claim a victory because you say, "12% decline in 48 hours" when in fact there was a rise when the 48 hour period was up.

There might be a few real traders who would like a few more predictions of my style.

Maybe. But from what I can see so far, they would have similar luck analyzing the Daily Racing Form or attempting to predict the next numbers on a roulette wheel by analyzing which numbers are "hot" and "cold." I don't mean to be dismissive, I'm trying to objectively analyze the results you are obtaining.

 

[xjx388]

Looking a little deeper, I see that some exchanges offer futures contracts but with a specified settlement date. The price is set (on CBOE) as of 4pm on the settlement date. And the contracts I can find are not mere days in duration. Which means that, no, you couldn't have sold the contract precisely at the time it hit the low.

I could be wrong so am ready to be corrected.

 

[bytewizard]

You can take a put option for let's say the end of March, 2018 with a strike price of $6,000. At any time after the put and before the end of the contract, if the price of BitCoin
drops to $6,000 or below you can sell your option.

 

[xjx388]

You can take a put option for let's say the end of March, 2018 with a strike price of $6,000. At any time after the put and before the end of the contract, if the price of BitCoin
drops to $6,000 or below you can sell your option.

Ah, ok. Like I said, I’m not a sophisticated investor by any means so I’m learning as I go in this thread. As I understand, this is a pretty expensive proposition, yes? What would such a put option cost you?

Where I’m going with that: In Samson’s example, his strike price would be 7400. It never reached that price, therefore it would expire worthless. If it expires, he loses what he paid for the put. How many such bets can he lose and will the winners profit enough to cover the losses?

 

[Samson]

Ah, ok. Like I said, I’m not a sophisticated investor by any means so I’m learning as I go in this thread. As I understand, this is a pretty expensive proposition, yes? What would such a put option cost you?

Where I’m going with that: In Samson’s example, his strike price would be 7400. It never reached that price, therefore it would expire worthless. If it expires, he loses what he paid for the put. How many such bets can he lose and will the winners profit enough to cover the losses?

Well no, my profit take on a naked short futures position would have been 7400.
This is quite unrelated to options, which in this case are derivatives of derivatives.
It seems that my 7400 call is now an albatross around my neck. One day I hope to fix ye all with a glittering eye.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Opinion:

I think the recent bounce has peaked and the price will now fall further.

Statement:

I am amazed at how large the "industry" is that is using the cryptos as a means of making money. The pro-bitcoin "experts" are coming out of the wood-work trying to prop up the industry and the prices.

Question:
To Psion10. Where is all the (fiat) money coming from sustain all these enterprises, pay peoples salaries, buy equipment and pay rent and utility bills?

In my opinion:

From the late-comers and the hodlers.

 

[Eddie Dane]

Dammit.

I'm looking to buy or build a super powerful PC for video-editing and some components have doubled in price due to the crypto miners buying up all the high-end graphics cards.

NVIDEA's stock has shot up by 80% since early 2016.

Who made all the money in the gold rush again?

 

[Henri McPhee]

I don't think Bitcoin is as safe as the Bank of England.

 

[Samson]

Dammit.

I'm looking to buy or build a super powerful PC for video-editing and some components have doubled in price due to the crypto miners buying up all the high-end graphics cards.

NVIDEA's stock has shot up by 80% since early 2016.

Who made all the money in the gold rush again?

Is the world getting more complex?
Sure. but lately we have an insect show in New Zealand, don't mess with those micro titans.

https://www.aucklandzoo.co.nz/bug-lab

Seemingly off topic, but are these miners just very crude insects?

 

[Samson]

Bitcoin at 8473 right now, sell it with your ears pinned back.
I will tell you exactly when to take profit.