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Bitcoin - Part 2

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psionl0 said:
Your apparent belief that we have reached saturation level is not borne out of any fact. The only time we might get close to saturation levels is if the cost of bitcoin transactions becomes so prohibitively high that it is not feasible for small time traders to do any bitcoin transactions. We have nowhere reached that level yet.

There are many stories about "widespread public interest" in bitcoin. This is one of them:

When Cyprus went through a banking crisis in early 2013 this triggered a lot of public interest in buying bitcoin for a measure of protection. This saw a rapid 10 fold rise in the price of bitcoin to in excess of $160. In fact, at one point the price nearly peaked at nearly $260 within a week. Of course the party ended quickly enough and the price rapidly dropped below $100 and brought with it the usual "this is the end of bitcoin" predictions.

The price skated around that level for several months and most believed that $200+ prices would never happen again. Yet by October 2013 we saw yet another 10 fold rise in price within 2 months which saw bitcoin's price peak at nearly $1200. Naturally enough, the price fell - and continued falling - until a year later it was less than $200. The price skated around that level for nearly a year (along with the usual "this is the end of bitcoin" predictions). Prices started rising again but it would take more than a year before $1000+ prices would ever be seen again.

Rinse and repeat.
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You almost had me convinced for a moment. ;)
 
We are assured of the lowest close since December 1.
This is not a rinse and repeat in the above 1000 dollar era, it is a structural trend change that the algorithm accords major effect. Previous highs have been surpassed in around 7 weeks, and without any comment in the mainstream news. This time it is different, in six weeks we are seeing a 50% decline becoming entrenched, with significantly greater volatility, and thus volume, on a percentage basis, and the news cycle all over the fiasco, but psion10's views are useful in making us look for points of difference.
There are profound differences.
 
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Samson said:
I am bragging because I am anonymous, but mainly because psion10 was one of a strange assortment who stated as false, posts which were known to be true and proven to be true. It was a right royal pain, and demeaning to the forum and its explicit intent.
I exclude marplots from this assortment.
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You didn't answer the question, though. If your TA method is so great, why not just take it to the bank, instead of wasting time on forums? You can find plenty of people who will be impressed with you IRL.
 
Samson said:
We are assured of the lowest close since December 1.
This is not a rinse and repeat in the above 1000 dollar era, it is a structural trend change that the algorithm accords major effect. Previous highs have been surpassed in around 7 weeks, and without any comment in the mainstream news. This time it is different, in six weeks we are seeing a 50% decline becoming entrenched, with significantly greater volatility, and thus volume, on a percentage basis, and the news cycle all over the fiasco, but psion10's views are useful in making us look for points of difference.
There are profound differences.
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I am one who reads your posts with interest. :thumbsup:

I wonder what the basis for your algorithm is. Or did I miss it?
 
PartSkeptic said:
I am one who reads your posts with interest. :thumbsup:

I wonder what the basis for your algorithm is. Or did I miss it?
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It is too simple for words, I look at the character of a supposed correction, to assess if it is in fact a trend change instead. In the case of bitcoin the algo is very long term, 2 to 3 days per bar, and says sell. These weekly or monthly iterations persist. If you check the TA threads objectively, you will see what I mean.
Gold is a monthly buy as I said early october.
 
I spoke to a guy today whose son made a small profit from buying bitcoin last year and selling it.

He has now asked his dad for a large loan so he can buy a large amount of bitcoin and make a large profit. After I chatted to his dad it is not going to happen - not that his dad was considering it anyway.

This is mania. The guy would be wiped out if the price keeps dropping. All they can see is the profit - they cannot see the possibility of a loss.
 
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a_unique_person said:
I am in crypto currency heaven. Perth Mint in Australia to offer gold backed crypto currency.
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The price will of course be closely pegged to the international price of gold, meaning the arcane forces of supply and demand in bitcoin and ethereum will not apply.
 
Samson said:
The price will of course be closely pegged to the international price of gold, meaning the arcane forces of supply and demand in bitcoin and ethereum will not apply.
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Yes, gold is much less fun for the would be speculator. Prices per ounce.

10 Year High £1,182.83
10 Year Low £422.76
 
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a_unique_person said:
I am in crypto currency heaven. Perth Mint in Australia to offer gold backed crypto currency.
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I did some internet searches on this.

The concept is fine. You buy one ounce of gold, get a block-chain transaction showing you own the gold, and one ounce of physical gold is taken from their stock and put into a depository for you (and future owners as people transact with it).

Problems.
1. The gold can be stolen from the Perth Mint depository. In 1982 68 kilograms were stolen and never recovered.

2. You may be buying gold that the mint says is stored for you but is only "paper-gold", meaning they don't actually have the gold in the depository, and could not meet the demand if everyone cashed in. Like fractional banking. See the link:
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/02/warning-about-perth-mint-gold.html

3. The gold could be confiscated by the government.

4. There is a limited supply of gold, but the price is determined by the gold market and not the demand for this "crypto-gold". It is likely to run out. Apparently there is not a lot of gold that they have for sale in the first place.
 
PartSkeptic said:
I did some internet searches on this.

The concept is fine. You buy one ounce of gold, get a block-chain transaction showing you own the gold, and one ounce of physical gold is taken from their stock and put into a depository for you (and future owners as people transact with it).

Problems.
1. The gold can be stolen from the Perth Mint depository. In 1982 68 kilograms were stolen and never recovered.

2. You may be buying gold that the mint says is stored for you but is only "paper-gold", meaning they don't actually have the gold in the depository, and could not meet the demand if everyone cashed in. Like fractional banking. See the link:
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/02/warning-about-perth-mint-gold.html

3. The gold could be confiscated by the government.

4. There is a limited supply of gold, but the price is determined by the gold market and not the demand for this "crypto-gold". It is likely to run out. Apparently there is not a lot of gold that they have for sale in the first place.
Click to expand...

But you get to appeal to gold bugs and cryptonuts! That is some genius marketing right there.
 
PartSkeptic said:
This is mania. The guy would be wiped out if the price keeps dropping. All they can see is the profit - they cannot see the possibility of a loss.
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Nonsense. Numerous experts are telling us that this price drop is only temporary, and long term you cannot lose:-

Expert reveals when bitcoin will SKY ROCKET to $1 million
Bobby Lee, the co-founder of BTCC, said:...

“Right now it’s 10,000, it will go 100,000 and then 200,000, 500,000...

and then eventually it will cross $1 million for bitcoin.”
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Don't listen to the naysayers, buy Bitcoin now!
 
I still don't see how it is nonsense though.

Bitcoin is nothing and has no intrinsic value whatsoever.

Fiat currency is backed by the economics of the nation issuing it. Bitcoin is not
Gold, if nothing else, is an actual commodity that can be used. Bitcoin can't
Shares in theory would give dividends from the companies that issued them. Bitcoin has none of that.

It literally is nothing more than a string of code that people have decided to back with money. And it's nowhere near as unbreakable/untraceable as some suggest either.

Now it might have had value as an alternate currency and it did for a while with the criminal element, but the massive price fluctuations of the last months have stopped even that.

So the only 'value' it has now is as a fad and speculation vessel. Once the fad switches to the next one, bitcoin will just deflate.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
I still don't see how it is nonsense though.

Bitcoin is nothing and has no intrinsic value whatsoever.

Fiat currency is backed by the economics of the nation issuing it. Bitcoin is not
Gold, if nothing else, is an actual commodity that can be used. Bitcoin can't
Shares in theory would give dividends from the companies that issued them. Bitcoin has none of that.
Click to expand...

It could have a utility value, but for that it would have to be able to be easily transferred, have low service charges and a stable value. Then it could be used at least like the electronic currency it tried to claim to be. But if failed at that. Now it is some kind of virtual commodity, with no utility and only hype to provide it with value.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
I still don't see how it is nonsense though.
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Because people who say that bitcoin price will reach $1M are as silly as those who say the price will go down to $0 (permanently).

We wouldn't put up with such nonsensical predictions in the paranormal section but because this is the bitcoin thread, such utterances are treated as gospel and the people who make these utterances are considered "geniuses".

Lukraak_Sisser said:
Bitcoin is nothing and has no intrinsic value whatsoever.
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There is no such thing as "intrinsic value". Something is only worth what somebody is willing to give in exchange for it. Do you really think that information has to be chiseled in stone before it exists?

Lukraak_Sisser said:
Fiat currency is backed by the economics of the nation issuing it. Bitcoin is not
Gold, if nothing else, is an actual commodity that can be used. Bitcoin can't
Shares in theory would give dividends from the companies that issued them. Bitcoin has none of that.
Click to expand...
So?

Lukraak_Sisser said:
It literally is nothing more than a string of code that people have decided to back with money.
Click to expand...
That corrects your earlier assertion.

Lukraak_Sisser said:
And it's nowhere near as unbreakable/untraceable as some suggest either.
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This is ancient stuff that has been discussed millions of times already. Just look back to the original thread if you want to know about these things.

Lukraak_Sisser said:
Now it might have had value as an alternate currency and it did for a while with the criminal element, but the massive price fluctuations of the last months have stopped even that.
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I will just have to take your word for that. I don't know how the spending habits of the "criminal element" have changed since bitcoin suddenly stopped being stable and became volatile.

Lukraak_Sisser said:
So the only 'value' it has now is as a fad and speculation vessel. Once the fad switches to the next one, bitcoin will just deflate.
Click to expand...
Yet another poster breaks out the magic wand and the witch's hat. :boggled:

Anything might happen where cryptocurrencies are concerned but nobody has a single basis for any of the constant fortune telling that goes on instead of critical thinking.
 
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