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Bitcoin - Part 2

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ChrisBFRPKY said:
If you monitor the exchanges the current actual price fluctuates quite a bit.
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I thought that might be the case. Which exchanges do you monitor?

This allows a bit of room for transaction fees.
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What are the typical fees?

Personally I like to sell at +$100... Never sell at a loss no matter what.
Chris B.
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Makes sense. Right now the (average) price is remarkably stable, but many are predicting a huge bull run up to Christmas. If you sell at +$100 and the price then keeps going up - will you continue selling, buy some back, or just keep holding what you have?
 
Belz... said:
Well, you gotta hand it to BTC, it defies prediction.
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Not really. PartSkeptic accurately predicted that the price would fall, just not exactly when and by how much. If you had any Bitcoin back then selling would still have been a good idea.

The more information and understanding you have of a market, the more accurately you can predict where it will go. Bitcoin hasn't (yet) dropped to $100 because it has morphed from 'digital cash' into 'institutional investment'.

Morgan Stanley Report: Bitcoin’s “rapidly morphing thesis”
The report traces the evolution of Bitcoin from its varying roles of digital cash, a new fundraising mechanism, a method for the store of value, to its most recent incarnation as a “new institutional investment class.”

The report showed that 48 percent of funding for Bitcoin came from hedge funds. A further 48 percent came from venture capital with the remaining 3 percent found in the form of private equity.

In terms of the origins of Bitcoin investment, over half has come from U.S. based investors, with China and Hong Kong coming in second at 9 percent and the U.K. – third at 6 percent.
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This explains why the price has stabilized at ~$6000, rather the much lower price you would expect based on its lack of utility as 'digital cash'. People who understand investment markets could have predicted this a long time ago.

However it doesn't invalidate what we were saying about Bitcoin's fundamentals, rather it validates them. Far from being a replacement for fiat currency, it is now just another investment vehicle based on shared delusions. The only reason it still continues to have 'value' is that Wall Street investors need it to have value.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
I thought that might be the case. Which exchanges do you monitor?

What are the typical fees?

Makes sense. Right now the (average) price is remarkably stable, but many are predicting a huge bull run up to Christmas. If you sell at +$100 and the price then keeps going up - will you continue selling, buy some back, or just keep holding what you have?
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There are a few. I'd rather not pinpoint info that applies to me personally.

Normally you can expect to pay 0.1% to 0.2% trading fees at most major exchanges.

I cited Coinbase be used for the experiment as they have a flat fee of $2.99 for trades up to $200. Anything higher than this you'll pay 1.49% which is a lot.

So aside from the experiment, Coinbase should be considered mainly the cashout point to convert BTC back to USD. Remember, up to $200 you're ok at $2.99 per transaction flat fee but the 1.49% fee is too high for day trading larger transactions there. You'll need 0.1% to 0.2% fees elsewhere for those.

Of course I have sold my 10% day trading purse before, good news hit and the price grew legs and continued to rise. Normally good news increases the price and bad news does the opposite, so monitor BTC news closely. If the price becomes an upward trend without decline you must put your day trading aside and concentrate on your holding purse. Set an unrealistic magic number and if it reaches that, sell 50%. It will decline after it peaks. (Bad news always follows record gains) Wait for the decline to stabilize and resume day trading with 10% again.

BTC should be a 2 part investment strategy, one for holding and the other for day trading. Profit can be cashed out or reinvested in BTC. Some guys do this but aside from buying a few back at half price or less (to replace my 50% sold), I prefer stacker bars of Silver bullion. (My precious) Most Bullion exchanges accept BTC. After all, you don't want to be in the category of being a BTC millionaire only on paper.
Chris B.
 
Belz... said:
That's insane.

So Bitcoin is not only NOT the most important creation in the history of mantm, and not only pretty useless for anything but speculation, and not only is it used by criminals to dodge the law, but it's an inherent force for evil in the world?
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To be fair, speculation and dodging the laws would be two things it's good for.
 
The plane hurtles towards the ocean.
low 5678, last 5824.

This should alarm bitcoin holders and holders of all cryptos. It may be too late to realise profits in meaningful volume, and so it should be. This energy guzzling pyramid game is a disgrace.
 
Samson said:
The plane hurtles towards the ocean.
low 5678, last 5824.

This should alarm bitcoin holders and holders of all cryptos. It may be too late to realise profits in meaningful volume, and so it should be. This energy guzzling pyramid game is a disgrace.
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HODL!!!
 
Samson said:
The plane hurtles towards the ocean.
low 5678, last 5824.

This should alarm bitcoin holders and holders of all cryptos. It may be too late to realise profits in meaningful volume, and so it should be. This energy guzzling pyramid game is a disgrace.
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With Bitcoin I am with you. But not all coins in the space are the same. A limited few have an actual use case; if ETH can move beyond PoW successfully it might have a future. It clearly won't serve as the internet 3.0 as initially promised, however.

It is certainly an interesting time in cryptocurrency development.
 
Samson said:
The plane hurtles towards the ocean.
low 5678, last 5824.

This should alarm bitcoin holders and holders of all cryptos. It may be too late to realise profits in meaningful volume, and so it should be. This energy guzzling pyramid game is a disgrace.
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This is not alarming at all. Every BTC trader that follows the news knew the price would be falling. Whether the price decline was a self fulfilling prophecy or not, now that's the interesting part.

Above you say "It may be too late to realise profits in meaningful volume". If you can't profit with BTC, you'll need to give up any thought of financial gain on anything, because it doesn't get much easier than BTC.
Chris B.

BTC= $5444.91
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
Above you say "It may be too late to realise profits in meaningful volume". If you can't profit with BTC, you'll need to give up any thought of financial gain on anything, because it doesn't get much easier than BTC.


Chris B.
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Chris the same can be said of Poker if you are a student of the game, know the odds, and can read people. But for you to win at poker, somebody has to lose. The same can be said of horse races. It requires complete discipline to do it. It's the same with Bitcoin or any other speculative product.



And let's face it. At present Bitcoin is nothing more than bytes on a machine somewhere and has no real intrinsic value outside of converting it into other cryptos or back into fiat.



If you follow the market every minute of every day, have stop and go points as you say you do and have enough discipline to follow your nose, you can. But what about Mom and Pop investors who were told last November that it was the next big thing, and used their savings and also borrowed against their house to buy in at $18,000. Most likely they are bankrupt now or working three jobs each to save their house.


Not everybody can make money on spec. Somebody has to lose.



Norm
 
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fromdownunder said:
Chris the same can be said of Poker if you are a student of the game, know the odds, and can read people. But for you to win at poker, somebody has to lose. The same can be said of horse races. It requires complete discipline to do it. It's the same with Bitcoin or any other speculative product.



And let's face it. At present Bitcoin is nothing more than bytes on a machine somewhere and has no real intrinsic value outside of converting it into other cryptos or back into fiat.



If you follow the market every minute of every day, have stop and go points as you say you do and have enough discipline to follow your nose, you can. But what about Mom and Pop investors who were told last November that it was the next big thing, and used their savings and also borrowed against their house to buy in at $18,000. Most likely they are bankrupt now or working three jobs each to save their house.


Not everybody can make money on spec. Somebody has to lose.



Norm
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Norm, good points all. Buying at the top is a bad piece of luck alright. But historically BTC always recovers and always eclipses its previous high. So it's really not like poker. Even though some may have bought in high, all they need is time and patience. It will recover and even increase. A $3 BTC buy in price was considered high at one time and people argued it would never get to $3 again. I didn't get in on those, but I did manage to get in at the $300 level.

Panic sellers never profit and that's the reason for most day to day volatility in trading. You're right, someone is losing money when they sell below their buy in value and others are cashing in on this. One must decide which type of trader do you wanna be?
Chris B.
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
Panic sellers never profit and that's the reason for most day to day volatility in trading. You're right, someone is losing money when they sell below their buy in value and others are cashing in on this. One must decide which type of trader do you wanna be?
Chris B.
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I've decided I wanna be one of the traders who cashes in. Are you telling me that the traders on the losing side are on that side cos they wanna sell below their buy value? Why do they wanna do that? Is it some kind of financial masochism?
 
Craig B said:
I've decided I wanna be one of the traders who cashes in. Are you telling me that the traders on the losing side are on that side cos they wanna sell below their buy value? Why do they wanna do that? Is it some kind of financial masochism?
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If you had shorted bitcoin last November you would have made a killing.

Do you still think that shorting today is the way to go?
 
psionl0 said:
If you had shorted bitcoin last November you would have made a killing.

Do you still think that shorting today is the way to go?
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I'm not sure in what way your answers relate to my questions. Let me put it another way. If people short at the right time and that's because they wanna make a killing; does that mean that people who short at the wrong time do so because they desire to lose their money?
 
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