Bird Flu

[MoeFaux]

Yikes, this article from the BBC is freakin' scary:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3643643.stm


Bird flu could develop into a threat big enough to overturn world order if it evolves to transfer directly from person to person, a UK scientist says.
Dr John McCauley, of the Institute for Animal Health, said the virus could be 20 times worse than the 1918 pandemic.

And this comforting quote:
"If it does - if the virus becomes adapted to man and can transmit efficiently - there'll be no point in selling a vaccine. You might as well give it away at that stage, because money would be meaningless. The world order would change."


It probably wouldn't be as cool as the zombies in Dawn of the Dead, either. That's scary as hell.

 

[athon]

Mankind is always on the verge of some major disease, such is our close association with animals. And it is a scary thought, in some ways.

Spanish Flu probably started as a bird-flu, and look at the devastation it caused. SARS demonstrated just what a viral pandemic could do, and it was a rather harmless bug in comparison with what, say, an influenza virus could actually do if it became virulent enough.

Remember Stephen King's 'The Stand'? While I'm not saying things could get that bad, our global society could indeed change dramatically with a pandemic that spread quickly enough.

Athon

 

[Prester John]

Influenza is a very scary virus. The sheer numbers of people in need of medical care due to a pandemic (of a new strain) would probably overwhelm even 1st world healthcare systems. Its usually secondary infections that get you. One last bit of good news, i think the 1918 pandemic killed a lot of young healthy people as well, normally flu just gets the elderly and very young. Many virologists think its a matter of when, not if.
Better hope for early detection and a vaccine.

 

[IllegalArgument]

I would not think it would be as bad as 1918. Our health and sanitation systems are highly improved, our understanding of disease vectors are better. Also, we have much better communication methods for sending out warnings and prevention information.

 

[Hellbound]

I would not think it would be as bad as 1918. Our health and sanitation systems are highly improved, our understanding of disease vectors are better. Also, we have much better communication methods for sending out warnings and prevention information.

The problem is we also have much cheaper, faster, and more readily available travel to and from all parts of the world.

 

[IllegalArgument]

I'm a bit skeptical, big surprise there, of the "coming plague" stuff I keep hearing. Ebola was supposed to get us in the 80s, until people figured out it's very hard to transmit. I can't even remember all the other plagues that were going to get us.

Obviously, we need to take precautions but I dislike the media frezny.

 

[geni]

I'm a bit skeptical, big surprise there, of the "coming plague" stuff I keep hearing. Ebola was supposed to get us in the 80s, until people figured out it's very hard to transmit. I can't even remember all the other plagues that were going to get us.

Obviously, we need to take precautions but I dislike the media frezny.

This one has got us before though.

 

[IllegalArgument]

A few blurbs about SARS media hype:

http://www.amfa33.org/counterpoints/sars_vs_flu.htm

I would be more worried about drug resistent TB.

 

[Prester John]

Drug resistant TB is a current problem, and a biggie.

I think SARS had a relativly high death rate, and it is a big success that it was contained. With luck we would be able to do the same with a new pandemic influenza strain. If a disease has a death rate in single figure %'s (like SARS), that is really bad news.

I think there is a misconception that infectious diseases are beaten. Far from it, some (like TB) are trying to make a comeback, there are always potential new diseases to hit us. Let us not forget Malaria, a real scourge upon humanity, though by virtue of its location, one that recives relatively little attention in the western world. Antibiotic resistance is a big problem that can only get bigger. I think most people would be suprised to learn that in reality there are only a small number of antibiotics. Human ingenuity versus microbial evolution.

 

[bug_girl]

personally, i am voting for monkey pox as the next big pandemic.
but that's just because i like saying monkey pox.

TB, HIV, and malaria are doing a really good job of killing millions of people *now.* They just aren't killing many people with money and influence in the developed world, so the public outcry is muted.

 

[hammegk]

I'm a bit skeptical, big surprise there, of the "coming plague" stuff I keep hearing. Ebola was supposed to get us in the 80s, until people figured out it's very hard to transmit.

Seeing where you are posting from, iirc, Ebola-Reston had an airborne vector. Also IIRC, for yet unknown reasons it killed monkeys but left infected humans unscathed.

Weapons grade anthrax dispersed from the air over major population centers I'd think is even more worrisome, and Ed only knows what bioweapons guys may have on the shelf.