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Bird 'Flu Epidemiology

Badly Shaved Monkey said:
Aside from the question of whether the apostrophe in 'flu (and the one at the end has died already) can survive this epidemic, has anyone here looked into the epidemiology properly yet? I'm a vet and I should know, but I don't and I was wondering if anyone has any quick answers.

I am confused by these apparent facts.

1. H5N1 is highly contagious.
2. H5N1 is present in wildfowl reservoirs, some of which are asymptomatic
3. H5N1 has spread with migrating birds
4. H5N1 has killed birds in Europe having spread from the Far East where it first appeared about 8 years ago.

But, if 1, 2 and 3 are true it should be almost ubiquitous by now. If we're only picking up the occasional dead birds, where did they get it from? Either there really isn't much of it about, in which case 1 is false, or there's loads of it about already and we're only picking up the tiny tip of the iceberg.

All this leads to this thought, if H5N1 exists in wild reservoirs already, aren't we better off if it hurries through the bird population and burns itself out? If current policy cannot control it in the wild reservoirs then our attempts to stall its spread in wild reservoirs will simply give it a longer opportunity to mix with human-compatible 'flu viruses and potentially acquire mutations?

So, shouldn't we want it to hurry through the wild birds while at the same time closing off contact of domestic birds and people with those wild reservoirs?

I asked around our vets' meeting this morning and no one had clear answers including the vet whose partner is in the avian veterinary industry, so my ignorance may be worrying, but it is not unique.
Click to expand...

You're not the only skeptic...

http://www.drmartinwilliams.com/com...oard/Itemid,155/func,view/catid,7/id,512/#512
 
Hello. I got this on my mail recently about bird flu. I don´t know if you can all read spanish, but some of you may. I don´t have the time to translate now. It may be one of these BS chain-mail thingies, I don´t know, but the job of a skeptic is to be skeptic about everything, innit? So why not about this bird-flu phenomenon too...

Extracto de la Editorial del número 81(abril-2006) la revista DSALUD por
José Antonio Campoy

¿Sabes que el virus de la gripe aviar fue descubierto hace 9 años en
Vietnam?
¿Sabes que desde entonces han muerto apenas 100 personas EN TODO EL MUNDO
TODOS ESTOS AÑOS?
¿Sabes que los norteamericanos fueron los que alertaron de la eficacia del
TAMIFLU (antiviral humano) como preventivo?
¿Sabes que el TAMIFLU apenas alivia algunos síntomas de la gripe común?
¿Sabes que su eficacia ante la gripe común está cuestionada por gran parte
de la comunidad científica?
¿Sabes que ante un SUPUESTO virus mutante como el H5N1 el TAMIFLU apenas
aliviara la enfermedad?
¿Sabes que la gripe aviar hasta la fecha solo afecta a las aves?

¿Sabes quien comercializa el TAMIFLU? LABORATORIOS ROCHE
¿Sabes a quien compró ROCHE la patente del TAMIFLU en 1996? a GILEAD
SCIENCES INC.
¿Sabes quien era el Presidente de GILEAD SCIENCES INC y aun hoy principal
accionista? DONALD RUMSFELD, actual Secretario de Defensa de USA

¿Sabes que la base del TAMIFLU es el anís estrellado?
¿Sabes quien se ha quedado con el 90% de la producción mundial de este
árbol? ROCHE
¿Sabes que las ventas del TAMIFLU pasaron de 254 millones en el 2004 a mas
de 1000 millones en el 2005?
¿Sabes cuantos millones más puede ganar ROCHE en los próximos meses si
sigue este negocio del miedo?

O sea que el resumen del cuento es el siguiente: Los amigos de Bush deciden
que un fármaco como el TAMIFLU es la solución para una pandemia que aún no
se ha producido y que ha causado en todo el mundo 100 muertos en 9 años.

Este fármaco no cura ni la gripe común. El virus no afecta al hombre en
condiciones normales. Rumsfeld vende la patente del TAMIFLU a ROCHE y este
le paga una fortuna. Roche adquiere el 90% de la producción del anís
estrellado, base del antivírico. Los Gobiernos de todo el Mundo amenazan
con una pandemia y compran a ROCHE cantidades industriales del producto.

Nosotros acabamos pagando el medicamento y Rumsfeld, Cheney y Bush hacen el
negocio....

¿ESTAMOS LOCOS, O SOMOS IDIOTAS? AL MENOS PASALO PARA QUE SE SEPA
 
Have no Spanish - I Babelfished this, and got...
Extract of the Publishing house of the number 81(abril-2006) magazine DSALUD by Jose Antonio Campoy You know that the virus of the bird influenza was discovered 9 years ago in Vietnam? You know that since then THESE YEARS have died hardly 100 people ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD ALL? You know that the North Americans were those that alerted of the effectiveness of the TAMIFLU (antiviral human) like preventive? You know that the TAMIFLU as soon as he alleviates some symptoms of the common influenza? You know that its effectiveness before the common influenza is questioned by great part of the scientific community? You know that before a SUPPOSED mutant virus as the H5N1 the TAMIFLU as soon as it alleviated the disease? You know that to date single the bird influenza affects the birds? You know who commercializes the TAMIFLU? LABORATORIES ROCHE Sabes to that ROCHE bought the patent of the TAMIFLU in 1996? to INC. GILEAD SCIENCES. You know who was the President of INC. GILEAD SCIENCES and even today main shareholder? DONALD RUMSFELD, present Secretary of Defense of the USA You know that the base of the TAMIFLU is the starred anise? You know who has remained with 90% of the world-wide production of this tree? ROCHE Sabes that the sales of the TAMIFLU happened of 254 million in the 2004 to but of 1000 million in the 2005? You know whichever million more can gain ROCHE in the next months if it follows east business of the fear? That is that the summary of the story is the following one: The friends of Bush decide that a drug like the TAMIFLU is the solution for a pandemic that not yet has taken place and that has caused anywhere in the world 100 died in 9 years. This drug does not cure nor the common influenza. The virus does not affect to the man in normal conditions. Rumsfeld sells the patent of the TAMIFLU to ROCHE and this a fortune pays to him. Roche acquires 90% of the production of the starred anise, bases of the antiviral one. The Governments worldwide threaten a pandemic and buy to ROCHE industrial amounts of the product. We ended up paying the medicine and Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush make the business.... WE ARE CRAZY, Or WE ARE STUPID? AT LEAST PASALO SO THAT IT IS KNOWN
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In summary, the reason not to be concerned about avian flu is not primarily because because of scientific research/epidemiological modelling, but because some famous people may get even richer if you do. :rolleyes:
 
I think what it´s saying is that it may all be a big hoax to get people scared and make a lot of money, like that famous millenium bug thing. It´s a possibility, don´t you think? Ok, maybe not a hoax, the bug is there, and it´s causing some deaths. But perhaps we are being manipulated, diverting our attention towards something not that important while some are making lots of money in the process. BTW, are those claims about Rumsfeld and TAMIFLU true?
 
I can translate the Spanish message. (Disclaimer: this is a translation, not an endorsement, don't kill the messenger...)

Do you know that the bird flu virus was discovered 9 years ago in Vietnam?

Do you know that, since that moment, hardly 100 people have died IN THE WHOLE WORLD ALL THESE YEARS?

Do you know it was the Americans who warned of the eficacy of TAMIFLU (human antiviral) as a preventative?

Do you know that TAMIFLU hardly alleviates some symptons of the common flu?

Do you know that its eficacy against common flu is questioned by great part of the scientific community?

Do you know that against a SUPPOSED mutant virus such as H5N! TAMIFLU will hardly alleviate the illness?

Do you know that bird flu, to date, only affects birds?

Do you know who commercialises TAMIFLU? ROCHE LABORATORIES

Do you know who bought the TAMIFLU patent in 1996? GILEAD SCIENCES INC.

Do you know who was the President, and still is the main share holder, of GILEAD SCIENCES? DONALD RUMSFELD, current Secretary of Defence of the USA

Do you know that the basis of TAMIFLU is the starred anise?

Do you know who has 90% of the world's production of that tree? ROCHE

Do you know that TAMIFLU sales went from 254M in 2004 to 1000M+ in 2005?

Do you knwo how many millions ROCHE can earn in the following months if this fear business persists?

In short: Bush's friends decide that a medicine such as TAMIFLU is the solution for a pandemic which hasn't taken place and which has caused in the whole world 100 deaths in 9 years.

This medicine doesn't even cure common flu. The virus does not affect humans in normal conditions. Rumsfeld sells the patent to ROCHE and the latter pays him a fortune. Roche acquires 90% of the production of the starred anise, basis of the antiviral. Governments all over the world threaten with a pandemic and buy from ROCHe huge quantities of the product.

We will end up paying for it while Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush get loaded...

ARE WE MAD OR STUPID? AT LEAST PASS IT ON SO IT GETS KNOWN.
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Hmmm... that message seems to have been taken from

doble u's dsalud dott com slash editoriales_81.htm.htm

(I can't post proper urls)

Among other things, this magazine has sections on alternative medicine (we all know what that means), magical magnets, iridology, phosphenism, killer cellular phones, chromotherapy...
 
Ok Yllanes, seems like the source is full of ◊◊◊◊. I don´t know which option is better, either Rumsfeld is a big liying bstrd of we have a dangerous epidemic lurking somewhere. Perhaps both?:confused:
 
Actually, perhaps both.

I wouldn't be all that surprised if there were people (and politicians seem like likely candidates) all ready and willing to make a few million from a global disaster.

But that neither means that the threat of disaster isn't real, or that the drug is being overhyped. It's been made pretty clear that nobody is certain that it will work, but there is reason to believe it will, and it makes sense to be prepared. The fact that it might be Rumsfeldt who cashes in on this I find barely surprising. But I'd still want the drug to be stockpiled.

Rolfe.
 
Well, why would´t they overhype the drug if they´re the ones making money of it?
 
Is it true it comes from aniseed? and that it doesn´t really have an effect of flu?
 
At what level do government officials have to put their investments into blind trusts? I know the pres and the VP do... don't Secretaries also?
 
Abooga said:
Is it true it comes from aniseed? and that it doesn´t really have an effect of flu?
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Chinese star anise is the primary source of shikimic acid, the main ingredient used to manufacture Oseltamivir, sold as Tamiflu. The effectiveness of the drug against a pandemic influenza remains to be seen. Resistance to both classes of antiviral drugs (the neuraminidase inhibitors like Tamiflu and the M-2 inhibitors like Amantadine) has been found to develop quickly, but it also appears to degrade rather quickly. A lot might depend on how the drugs were administered. To be effective, treatment must be started early in the course of the illness. Once viral load passes a certain point, the drug no longer makes much difference -- and the opportunities for resistance to develop increase considerably as well. Since there isn't enough to go around anyway, I think we might get better results if the emphasis was more on phrophylaxis rather than actual treatment (i.e., giving highest priority to caregivers, first responders, truck drivers, and other critical workers).
 
This is the 1sttime highly pathogenic avian influenza has been detected in Denmark.

The virus isolate was submitted to the EU reference laboratory in the UK on Thu 16 Mar 2006 for confirmation.


Further analysis of the genome will be performed.


From an e-mail sent by:

Poul H. Jorgensen (DFVF)
Anders Fomsgaard



On Tue 14 Mar 2006, an H5 avian influenza virus was detected in respiratory tissues from a dead buzzard Buteo buteo found in the southern part of the island of Zealand(Sjaelland) in Denmark. The identification of the virus is:

A/Buzzard/Denmark/6370/06 (H5N1).

Sequencing of the cleavage site of the HA gene revealed that the virus is highly pathogenic for fowl.

On Wed 15 Mar 2006, a virus isolate was obtained from SPF [specific pathogen free] chicken embryos. The entire viral genome has been sequenced now in a collaborative work between the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research (DFVF) and Statens Seruminstitut (SSI).

The sequence has been made accessible at the home page of the Danish Influenza Research Network, formed by DFVF and SSI:

http://home.no.net/difn
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casebro said:
At what level do government officials have to put their investments into blind trusts? I know the pres and the VP do... don't Secretaries also?
Click to expand...

That's an excellent question. If you are an employee of the
government and many private firms you are not allowed to
own a company or a part of any company (e.g. stock) whose products you may have influence over in recommending their purchase. It's called a conflict of interest. That's for ordinary people. When the SOD got his present job, he kept his huge stock portfolio in Gilsead, developer of Tamiflu, and he has already benefitted from the government's purchase and planned future purchase of Tamiflu. The stock has rose from around $34 to over $60 per share in one year. I call that doubling your money ... and its a lot of shares the SOD has. I do not understand how either he or the VP could continue to retain financial ties to commercial entities after they got their current government jobs and not be in a conflict of interest. I would not be allowed to do it. If I got a job where I would be buying a company's products whose stock I own, I would be required to dump the stock before I did that. That includes friends and relatives as well. Otherwise I and they could end up like Martha Stewart. Cheney and Rumsfeld, along with John Snow and David Sanborn (who would've benefitted from the Dubai ports deal) make Martha Stewart's actions look like chicken feed ....

So Cheny and Rumsfeld's(?) stock are placed in a blind trust that they cannot buy and sell on the basis of inside information (but their trustee can) and they know what they have and based on the prospects for Gilsead and Halliburton it is not likely they would sell anyway.
 
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Abooga said:
Well, why would´t they overhype the drug if they´re the ones making money of it?
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Because if ordinary mortals like you and me were making money over a product we were buying with taxpayer dollars we'd be indicted, convicted and then fined and jailed.

If they want those jobs, e.g. VP or SOD, then they should
lose their financial ties to any entity that would benefit from
taxpayer business.
 
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Dogdoctor said:
Apparently some people and birds may be somewhat resistant to it which may hide it's spread and slow it's spread a bit.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,14207,1682954,00.html
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"The researchers studied interviews with 45,478 people in FilaBavi, a Vietnamese demographic surveillance site with confirmed outbreaks of H5N1 in poulty during April to June 2004. Eighty-four per cent lived in households that kept poultry and 25.9% reported birds falling ill or dying of flu in that time. Of those, between 650 and 750 people suffered flu-like symptoms after handling the birds."

Let me get this straight. They went around and interviewed people -- during flu season -- and based on the frequency with which flu-like syptoms were reported, concluded that H5N1 is widespread? It's a joke, right?


Here is an article that suggests that bird flu may have traded it's pathogenicity for ease of transmission:
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47720
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Catch the date on that one?
 
Abooga said:
Well, why would´t they overhype the drug if they´re the ones making money of it?
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You have to realise that it's not just, or even mainly, the manufacturers who are "hyping" the drug. Many virologists with no connection to the manufacturer have been quite positive about the potential.

Rolfe.
 
This may explain why there are so few human cases thus far:



http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/URItheFlu/tb2/2911

MADISON, Wis., March 22 - People anxiously watching the skies for the
arrival of sick migratory birds can relax, just a bit, if research here pans
out on where avian flu resides in the human airway.

The research reported in the March 23 issue of Nature shows that the humanairway isn't particularly hospitable to the bird flu virus.
Unlike most human influenza strains, which can infect cells high in the
airway, the avian flu prefers cells that are mainly found deep in the lungs,
according to Yoshihiro Kawaoka, D.V.M., Ph.D., of the University of
Wisconsin at Madison.

The finding may explain why human-to-human transmission of the virus so far has been rare, said Dr. Kawaoka and colleagues.
In an interview, Dr. Kawaoka said the finding also explains why most of the human cases of infection with the highly pathogenic avian flu H5N1 have been among people living or working in close contact with infected birds.

To get the virus deep into the lungs, where it can infect its preferred
cells, requires extensive exposure, Dr Kawaoka said. That's unlike the
typical human influenza virus, which infects cells found high in the airway
and can be easily spread by coughing and sneezing.
"Deep in the respiratory system, receptors for avian viruses, including
avian hemagglutinin type 5 (H5) neuraminidase type 1 (N1) viruses, are
present," he said. "But these receptors are rare in the upper portion of the
respiratory system."

"For the viruses to be transmitted efficiently, they have to multiply in the
upper portion of the respiratory system so that they can be transmitted bycoughing and sneezing."

On the other hand, Dr. Kawaoka said, only "a couple of mutations" would be required for the virus to change its preference. He added that surveillance for such changes is relatively easy.

"Identification of H5N1 viruses with the ability to recognize human
receptors would bring us one step closer to a pandemic strain," he said.

(truncated ...more at above URL)
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