Bias in Challenge Protocol?

ProbeX just tell us which psi abilities exist
Not sure what % of this is sarcasm, so I'll take it somewhat seriously just in case. But first we need to establish that my reply in no way minimizes the points I've made re: the thread topic. I could be a raging Falwell-o-holic and it wouldn't reduce the faults laid out re: the Challenge. Agreed? Good ...

I have a body of personal evidence for one anomalous phenomenon (EVP), but it's unclear if it's tied in any way to personal psi ability. And yes, I'm aware much of EVP is likely a pile of crap based on poor technique, imagination or outright fraud.

And it's possible EVP is scientific in nature (that's my guess, in fact); natural in origin (not "supernatural"). That being said, personal proof is not enough to warrant a public announcement of EVP's objective existence. Nor is it reasonable for personal (anecdotal) evidence, like mine, to be taken as certain evidence of said phenomenon. Have q's for me? Fire away.

Btw, it didn't escape me that part of your username relates to Randi's Challenge. Sorry but I couldn't resist ;)
 
Astute skeptical reasoning. You might imagine your insight and intelligence will be welcomed here. Turning the spotlight of reason and logic onto the MDC.
Hey thanks for the positive comments. Am a little surprised there weren't more ad hominem attacks launched at me in the course of this thread. Maybe I don't give people enough credit.

Just working out a protocol for a demonstration, as suggested by the MDC, as well as reading the FAQ page, is very helpful for determining if something CAN be demonstrated.
Yeah, have to admit it can help people think about how to go about testing ideas. Also, in the process of negotiating conditions of a test, it probably helps otherwise strictly intuition-oriented people get a beginner's idea of how to examine their beliefs and alleged talents in a more critical way. It may even help someone begin to let go of a life-pattern of harmful self-delusion. Yes, there are positives.

I try and look at it from Randi's point of view. I really think he hates frauds and cons who rip people off , in time and money and emotional damage, by claiming and charging for powers that don't stand up to scrutiny. The MDC is a tool, and it didn't start off as a million, it was 10 Grand of his own money at first.
Would imagine working as a pro magician made it harder for him to ignore fraudulent practices. And I applaud anyone, including Randi, who sheds a spotlight on frauds. At the same time, I think there's a fine line btw. skepticism and reactionary cynicism disguised as skepticism.

... And if you're operating on an unstated premise that all alleged psychics are frauds (for ex., by referring to them as "adversaries"), then any "truth" testing you implore, especially w prize money attached, cannot have an outcome which warrants an intellectually serious response IMO.

And it isn't that only challenge. Leading to a related yet fascinating offshoot here ...
Huh? Is there another challenge going on? ... I'm unaware. Btw, noticed you are a researcher. Nice!
 
And that is specifically what Randi claims to do: research (of subjects and stat.s, etc.) and testing; quantitative in nature.

No he doesn't. As you said yourself :

Debunking charlatans and helping ppl see the ways in which they fool themselves

This is a challenge for people who believe they have paranormal powers to prove it. That is it. This is not scientific research. Tests are conducted in as scientific a way as possible, but they are done purely for the purpose of testing if people can actually do what they say.

Incidently, Robinson is our resident troll on the challenge. I wouldn't take comments from him too seriously if I were you.
 
... And if you're operating on an unstated premise that all alleged psychics are frauds (for ex., by referring to them as "adversaries"), then any "truth" testing you implore, especially w prize money attached, cannot have an outcome which warrants an intellectually serious response IMO.

It isn't unstated, is it? I think the meaning is clear from reading the website on the MDC. It is a challenge, and it is said up front, I don't believe you can do it. You are a fraud. Prove me wrong, I give you money.
 
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Cuddles, you said:
No he doesn't [do research (of subjects and stat.s) and testing; quantitative in nature.] As you said yourself
No. Reread the quote you just cited more carefully.

I said he claims to do research and testing (or gathers others to do it). Doesn't mean he's going about it in a sound manner. Yes, he researches or calls on others to do it for him. For ex.: every time he calls on a statistician for help or evaluates the effecacy of the applicant's approach w the help of professionals or assistants.

And yes, his intent is to quantitatively measure psi abilities. If you read up on the difference btw. qualitative and quantitative research, you may better appreciate my point.

And yes of course debunking can be quite positive (and gratifying lol). And that's fine if Penn & Teller are doing the testing on an entertainment program. But if someone claims to be objectively, fairly and formally testing people for psi abilities (not debunking them), that person is obligated to do so in an objective manner.

Again, the scientific method of testing a subject (for abilities, behavior, etc.) is still the best approach. Anything else is highly questionable as objective and the results are to be taken w a huge grain of salt.

You admitted he's taking a (quasi) scientific approach to his tests when you stated that he conducts his tests in "as scientific a way as possible". Well half-a$$ed scientific testing is substandard. There's no such thing as "sortakinda" scientific. Clearly he is invested in the scientific approach, but not invested enough for it to give him unimpeachable results.

If ppl are challenged to "do what they say they can", as you frame it, then the subject should be tested by a neutral 3rd party, assisted by neutral parties ... as opposed to a long-time cynic who is an adversary to his subjects. That way it's clear that his attitude and the imploring of a bias panel of clinicians and assistants didn't interfere in the human testing.
 
It isn't unstated, is it? I think the meaning is clear from reading the website on the MDC. It is a challenge, and it is said up front, I don't believe you can do it. You are a fraud. Prove me wrong, I give you money.

OK. You nabbed me LOL. Nice work.

I have no evidence yet for you being a troll, as the poster above claims. Just evidence of you being correct. So ... are you a troll? Is that like asking a liar if he's lying? Christ that just sounded mean somehow but inquiring minds would like to know ;)
 
I could say Cuddles is an idiot, but that doesn't make it so. People who make claims, without backing them up, or worse, expecting you to just believe it because they said so, are woos, or perhaps, just woo-like in behavior. Pointing this out makes them angry. Angry people say dumb things. Pointing this out just makes them insult you more, so go along with the herd, or be labeled a troll.

:D
 
If you want to decide for yourself, (a skeptical trait, be careful), you can read this thread http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=1975805#post1975805
and get a better idea of my thoughts about the MDC.

Think for yourself, question authority, investigate, and try to ignore the baiting, it makes it more fun.

Or, as wiser man once told me, think of message boards as dancing, rather than fighting. Then every now and then, you can try to cop a feel. :wackylaugh:
 
I'm sorry, maybe I'm just interpreting this wrong. Probe, are you claiming that no scientist is able to observe his own testing without somehow influencing the results? Or just scientists who have something invested in the outcome? What determines whether they have something invested in the outcome?

You seem to be stating that in "real" science, the scientist running the test isn't actually present while the test is being run for fear of invalidating the results somehow. If that IS what you're claiming, you might wanna back that up with some proof. Cuz it flies in the face of scientific history and fact.

If that's NOT what you're claiming, I apologize for misreading your repeated statements.
 
If you want to decide for yourself, (a skeptical trait, be careful), you can read this thread http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=1975805#post1975805
and get a better idea of my thoughts about the MDC.

Think for yourself, question authority, investigate, and try to ignore the baiting, it makes it more fun.

Or, as wiser man once told me, think of message boards as dancing, rather than fighting. Then every now and then, you can try to cop a feel. :wackylaugh:

I like your balanced approach. "Jumping on a bandwagon" seems like the right way to put it. Luckily, I think most ppl have been pretty respectful on this thread. Doberman (above) hits me as a good example of this.

I agree there could be more tolerance of opposing opinions. And dancing instead of kicking, screaming, biting and smearing bugars on each other. Someone shouldn't be damned simply for raising questions or exercising rigorous critical thinking. In fact, my belief is that the more obnoxious someone's reaction is, to someone who respectfully disagrees, the shakier their position tends to be. Or at least, they feel their position is shaky and get defensive easily. I also think some ppl have a habit of judging anyone who questions the standard skeptical arguments; to be labeled as what you call a "woo". So your dissenting opinion gets prematurely tossed into that category and the merits of your opinion become invisible. ... Or someone misdirects their anger for woos or for anyone, onto you because it's a forum and they have their anonymity to hide behind.

And btw, noticed in the thread you started that someone believes it would take a [clever] scientist to win Randi's Challenge. But therein lies the embarrassing truth of the Challenge: No serious scientist would take the Challenge seriously because Randi's modus operandi is quasi-scientific in nature. And anyone who has even a baseline understanding of scientific testing would realize how scientifically flaccid his Challenge is, because - again everybody - it's overall tone and approach is "adversarial" and involves gambling. As proof, his tests do no more than what they are designed to do: attract flakes and nuts and money addicts who are easy to debunk, as opposed to intelligent ppl who aren't stupid enough to jump through unprofessionally designed hoops for an adversary.

Doberman, I'll be sure and reply to you asap.
 
Well ok, I already gave one clear ex. of how method/procedure is flawed. In posted info about the Challenge, it has been stated that in the past, Randi occasionally sits in to observe his adversaries as they undergo testing. For example, I believe it's stated that Randi intended to sit in on Lou Gentile's testing (if Gentile had agreed to be tested). This practice is never, under any circumstances, acceptable as part of sound objective testing in the field of professional science, or as part of any professional, objective research/testing model or procedure. And that is specifically what Randi claims to do: research (of subjects and stat.s, etc.) and testing; quantitative in nature.

Can you provide an example (even hypothetical) of how Randi's presence as an observer could lead to a flawed outcome?

In addition, I don't believe Randi insists on being present for any test, and only will be there if the claimant says they can perform whether he is there or not.

It's quasi-science, and for some reason this seems to be escaping many people supporting the Challenge. Perhaps it's because otherwise intelligent ppl find the idea of a magician publically humiliating bleevers and frauds, so sexy that they'll blindly jump on the Randi bandwagon, regardless of the glaring errors in his approach. Or perhaps they're poorly educated about properly executed, formalized testing procedures.

That he conducts research (of stats, etc.) and testing of adversaries may be cute to non-scientists and many emotional skeptics (not saying that's you), but it's laughable and oxymoronical to any of us who have ever conducted balanced, responsible testing of human subjects; who routinely execute countermeasures for illiminating tester bias leading to questionable results. More below ...

You're equivocating here... in science, "tester" bias refers to the bias of the actual examiner... the person handling the materials or surveying the subjects. In this context, Randi is not the "tester" just because it's his challenge.

You have referred to the methods being "fraudulent"... fraud is a very specific accusation, and always implies deception in the terms of a contract or agreement. Can you identify any specific example where Randi or JREF have been at all deceptive in executing a challenge application?

In fact, can you identify any specific test performed by JREF where you feel the methods affected the outcome? Not a hypothetical example. An actual case, with the name of the challenger.
 
This is getting silly. If 1 person donated the Million Dollars for the purpose of the challenge. They no longer have that money. It just stays in that bank, being useless. So why would they NOT want it to be used to figure out Psychics or Unicorns existed? Wouldn't that be cool? Wouldn't that be better than having the money just sit in a bank?

It's not a gamble if new information is discovered. And that's why they gave Randi the money in the first place.

So stop being silly.

If someone is slick enough to Fool Randi and his posse then they probably deserve the million dollars. Why wouldn't a brilliant person scheme up a way to try to fool them just to win the $1,000,000 then go out in the Media and explain how it was done after the money was cashed and make a fool out of them?

From what I read on that test they did with that Swedish woman who could read items that belonged to dead people if they touched them. Randi had it done in Sweden, where he wasn't present, and it was done at RIT(Royal Institute of Technology) by I'm sure a real brilliant Swede. I've known a few swedes who went to RIT they were classy guys.

This is my first time really exploring this forum category and already I'm annoyed with the people who insist it's rigged. There should be a huge application fee, and a fee to post in here. Man, I can't believe the patience these guys have. I couldn't do it.

Money is 'wasted' every time they take time out to do these tests for anyone. Time is Money, and this is a Non-profit organization. A chance to win $1,000,000 dollars and the claimant loses no money in the process. Wow, you guys at JREF are real ******** for doing this. You guys need to change the rules so anyone the person who applies sets all the rules, and decides if they win or not. Then it will be truly fair.
 
...
You guys need to change the rules so anyone the person who applies sets all the rules, and decides if they win or not. Then it will be truly fair.

I'd go even further: Simply hand in your application - it could even be scribbled on sausage casing, reading: I abbly for da jRFe Parranormal cHallEnge - and you win the Million.

Even furthererer: Call Randi, scream "Give me my million dollars!" and he'll write you a check.
 
This is addressed not just to Doberman, but in response to others who just responded. ... And if the following doesn't answer your question, look back through the spindles of posts, where you'll find I've already addressed what you wrote:

Doberman said:
I'm sorry, maybe I'm just interpreting this wrong. Probe, are you claiming that no scientist is able to observe his own testing without somehow influencing the results? Or just scientists who have something invested in the outcome? What determines whether they have something invested in the outcome?
I am speaking directly to the testing of human subjects. The answer is still 'no'. What determines vested interest? Well I've already answered this several xs over now: It's the testing of human subjects where the person/s leading or directly involved w the test, is invested - either monetarily or ideologically - in the outcome of that human testing procedure. Such as Mr. James Randi.

Testing someone for something you don't believe exists, as he's stated publically, is ludicrous. There will be biases in ways I already mentioned. Reread my posts if you missed how these biases play out.

You seem to be stating that in "real" science, the scientist running the test isn't actually present while the test is being run for fear of invalidating the results somehow. If that IS what you're claiming, you might wanna back that up with some proof. Cuz it flies in the face of scientific history and fact.
In the area of human testing that is true. He most often is invested in a certain outcome. Tests are designed to get results. In Randi's case it's clear that testing and adversary means he wants to win.

Generally the testing process evokes a desire to get results in one direction or the other. Or that is that risk. For this reason the person designing a test must agree to have neutral parties do the testing, if it is to be taken seriously.

And I already gave one solid example of how the tester - and by extension - his chosen testers and technicians - can bring the results into question. I stated that Randi has admitted to placing himself in contact w/his test subjects, for example. His demeanor alone could cause his "adversary", as he puts it, to choke up in a testing situation or underperform, even where they believe they won't be affected in this way.

His technicians could also behave in an intimidating or a menacing way; perhaps w/out even realizing it.

You & I as the public, are not present during these procedures and have no way of knowing if he or his chosen clinicians used intimidation tactics, or if his presence alone created performance anxiety.

Many psi believers claim to need concentration and focus to use their gifts. Adversaries leading the tests could therefore easily lead to false negative results.
Just face it kids, Randi hung himself by framing the testing as adversarial in nature. And w an adversarial testing environm., no one should be expected to pass such a "test".

In addition to the above being a baseline requirement in human testing, it is also painfully obvious. And I have yet to hear anyone (including the person who HIGH CAPPED EVERYTHING) adequately defend this fatal flaw (and others mentioned) in his approach. (Proof?: Do an easy search for standard protocol in formal human testing on the web or grab a beginner's book on the subject. I'm already spending an exhaustive amount of energy extrapolating on this subject lol ... it's all there).
 
I'd go even further: Simply hand in your application - it could even be scribbled on sausage casing, reading: I abbly for da jRFe Parranormal cHallEnge - and you win the Million.

Even furthererer: Call Randi, scream "Give me my million dollars!" and he'll write you a check.

Sorry, but this is naive thinking.
 
ProbeX, you may have a point in that the mere presence of a person can throw someone off their game, especially someone who is in an adversarial role, examples from real abilities come to mind.

But the very idea of the challenge, as well as the rules, is to find a way to show that something can be done so that no judging is required. Anyone present, as well as any observer of the recordings of the event, can tell what has happened. This is why two tests are done, because if anyone could show in the first one an ability or event that is considered paranormal, they can do it again.

The entire thing seems a sort of catch 22, in that one is attempting to prove something that doesn't exist, or is possible, in the first place. Establishing a protocol for the challenge is probably the most important part, and since it is in writing, there can't be any fight over what was claimed, and what the results were.

Obviously, if a second test was to take place, there would be much attention and publicity concerning it, because someone would have managed to demonstrate something unusual, in a way that can be repeated, and there would be a lot of money at stake.

The bias is eliminated before the testing, or the challenge demonstration, if you will. If there is any bias, that is when it would come into play. I have encouraged others to do this simple exercise, concerning the challenge. Come up with a better way to do it, and present that, before you criticize the existing method.

In other words, how would you determine a way to demonstrate something, that would satisfy all parties? That would be obvious to any observer, that the claim was satisfied? And how would you ensure no bias, on anyones part?

In the FAQs section, there are clear suggestions to demonstrate the ability or event, to skeptical, professional, intelligent people, before you make an application, as well as other good advice.
http://www.randi.org/research/faq.html#4.2

This next step is very important, because it will be the first big hurdle you will face:

Tell your physician and/or psychiatrist that you have a paranormal ability and that you plan on demonstrating your paranormal ability in front of a team of observers, and consider heeding his/her advice.

The reason that this is a big hurdle is this: you should trust your physician/psychiatrist; they're on your side, after all. If you cannot convince them that applying for the Challenge is a good idea, you won't stand a chance against people you don't trust and who are not on your side.

After you are sure you are healthy and you have told your doctors about your intentions, make sure you can actually do the thing you will be claiming you can do in the application. If you know your ability is based on a trick or deception, stop right here and don't apply. Don't lie to yourself.

If you are sure you are not lying to yourself, find someone you know who is a reasonable, scientific sort and talk to him about your ability. Ask him to be as unfriendly and skeptical as possible. Then, demonstrate your proposed claim to him. This is the second big hurdle. If you can convince a brutally honest friend that you can do something paranormal, then keep going. Otherwise, stop; you will have no chance convincing the JREF's investigators.

Make sure you can reliably perform this ability within your claimed limits. Make sure that standard things you would expect in the challenge, such as the presence of skeptics, or a physical object near or between you and the thing you want to affect, don't affect your ability. If you can't read someone's mind when there's a skeptic nearby, or you can't see through a blindfold when there's a piece of cardboard between you and the object you are supposed to be able to see, then don't apply. These are just the sorts of things you will be subjected to during the test.

See? Important issues are stated clearly right there. Including the issue of having your ability modified by the presence of others.

If you can't read someone's mind when there's a skeptic nearby, or you can't see through a blindfold when there's a piece of cardboard between you and the object you are supposed to be able to see, then don't apply.

See? It is an adversarial situation, that is made clear up front. If something can't be done in the presence of skeptical people, then such an ability will not qualify for the challenge.

It is just part of the game.

Doesn't the fact that claimants aren't allowed to collaborate on the choice of judges, experts and intermediaries, etc., create too much potential for bias behavior and unchecked duplicity from Randi's organization and/or his appointed experts?

These points have been brought up before. The very method of creating a protocol may have bias, but not the actual testing, or attempts to win. In fact, the establishing of a protocol is probably the most time consuming and difficult part of the entire MDC. Yes, you have to play by Randi's rules, and that is not in question. So it may be that getting a mutually agreed upon protocol that will satisfy the MDC rules, and both parties, is a big part of the MDC.

Many things that may exhibit unknown or not currently understood properties might qualify, but the cost of setting up a test protocol for them, would far exceed the prize money. And, as has been pointed out many times, if you really do have some extra-human ability, you may make more money keeping it quiet, than trying to win the million.

The MDC is a tool for many things, but exposing obvious frauds is the first and foremost. That is how it started. Put up, or shut up. You say you can do it, lets work out how that can be shown, so that it is obvious you can.

Nobody has so far. And remember, there are other challenges as well. Winning one may mean you win them all.
 
If someone is slick enough to Fool Randi and his posse then they probably deserve the million dollars. Why wouldn't a brilliant person scheme up a way to try to fool them just to win the $1,000,000 then go out in the Media and explain how it was done after the money was cashed and make a fool out of them?

That is a point that has come up before. Someone may try and come up with an unknown or clever technological way to fake an ability. In fact, I believe Randi has exposed a few of them. So it may come down to trying to beat a very clever magician, with technology.

This is why working out a protocol is important, and why time is involved. Just be describing what can be done, and the conditions under which it will be done, is enough information for a smart skeptic to figure out what you might be trying to pull. And either duplicate the feat, thereby figuring out the scam, or coming up with ways to detect or subvert the technology being used, rendering the fake ability for what it is, a con job.

I am confidant that Randi and others would be able to match wits with a con. Especially Randi. Of course if you can figure out a really good, hard to detect technological scam, you could simply make money from that, rather than risk being exposed by the MDC. Technology works for both sides here. Anything you bring to the test, probably can be detected by technology. If someone does come up with a way to beat modern technology, it might be worth more than a million. Hidden devices, especially ones that can communicate information somehow, that can't be detected by any known means, are worth a lot.

Just thinking out loud, obviously I don't speak for Randi or the JREF. But I do, based on my knowledge in these matters, trust Randi and the skeptics of the world, to expose frauds and cheats.
 
Ye gods, I am so confused by this thread.

If the claimed power works, it works.

Provided that 60Hz, 120V is available (or whatever frequency and voltage is applicable where I happen to be), the light will come on when I close the switch, period, no matter how many people are in my face, being adversarial about how it can't possibly happen.

So what if the Challenge is or isn't approached from the expectation that a claimant can't do what he or she claims? If they can do it, they can do it.

If the OP is talking about people whose abilities require specific set conditions (such as the presence of ONLY credible people in a completely credulous situation), then that isn't something that can be reliably reproduced under controlled, double-blinded conditions. If there's any "bias" in the Challenge, that's the bias: that the effect must be present in a double-blinded, controlled situation.

Am I missing something? Is the OP saying that the JREF is attempting to "throw" the test by designing improper protocols? Or that the JREF doesn't conduct tests according to the agreed protocols? If the former, I'd like to see some specific tests mentioned. If the latter, the only test in which I can find this happening is the Carina Landin test, and JREF is specifically rehashing the test because it was conducted improperly (which doesn't sound to me like it would be the behaviour of someone who's purposefully trying to force someone to fail).

Sorry if I'm rehashing stuff here, but I've reviewed this thread and it's just terribly confusing.
 
Cuddles, you said:
No. Reread the quote you just cited more carefully.

I said he claims to do research and testing (or gathers others to do it). Doesn't mean he's going about it in a sound manner. Yes, he researches or calls on others to do it for him. For ex.: every time he calls on a statistician for help or evaluates the effecacy of the applicant's approach w the help of professionals or assistants.

And yes, his intent is to quantitatively measure psi abilities. If you read up on the difference btw. qualitative and quantitative research, you may better appreciate my point.

You are wrong, it is that simple. Randi very specifically does not claim to be quantitatively testing anything. As Robinson says, it is a challenge. He says "I don't believe you can do what you say, prove that you can". That is it. He does not try to measure psi, he simply asks people to prove that they can do something. Even if someone passes the challenge it will not be evidence for psi, it will simply show that someone actually could do what they claimed, no matter what the mechanism. Randi is debunking, plain and simple. No research is involved at any point. Until someone passes the challenge there is not even anything for Randi to be researching, so claiming that he is is just silly.
 
I would say Randi must do research on "paranormal" stuff, if for no other reason, than to be able to deal with claims.
 

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