Bart Ehrman on the Historical Jesus

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The problem here is as James Burke pointed out in Day the Universe Changed is that shifts in thinking are hard and scholars will hold on to the old theories like grim death.

In each example you named, the denial came from lack of evidence, didn't it ?

And so you choose to shape your error characteristic, avoiding false negatives in general, at the inevitable cost of enduring more false positives than necessary (and more false classifications overall).

Again, it all depends on the history you want. If you want a complete, if tentative, timeline, you're going to have to make due with bad evidence. If you don' t mind a very fragmentary history, then sure, assume the negative. But you're not going to learn much from history, though.
 
Jayson

I was involved in a discussion that had nothing to do with personal ambitions of pursuit, but validity of the field itself for its general purposes.
Yes, and there is our disagreement. You propose the historical method (that is the term we have used here at least) as something suitable for general application, while your testimony about it discloses it as being tailored to the problems only found among an academic clique with a niche criterion for success in uncertain inference.

In contrast, I advocate Bayesian methods (that is the term we have used here at least), which enjoy a proven track record of success in a wide variety of domains over two centuries, and which will accommodate a diverse set of inferential goals, incldung the one you have described.

So, which proposal is more suitable for "general purposes" is what divides us, not "dismissal," "lack of respect," "anti-intellectualism" or any of the other smoke screens that have been puffed out, not all of them by you personally, to obscure the actual issue.


Belz

I thought that had been made quite clear.
I agree that it's clear that that has been claimed. I missed the evidence or argument for it being true. Jesus is easily dsitinguished from any historical figure who is said to have done their best work before they died. That would seem to cover almost everybody.

It has emerged in discussion that the "historical method" involves a conspicuously rigid heuristic. While that would account for its ability to support near-unanimity on a near-equipoise prospect, it is also suspicious of brittleness (the quality that a small change in the input can cause a large, even catastrophic change in the output). So, maybe it is true that "as goes Jesus, so goes Julius Caesar" ... at least within the "historical method."

If that really were true, however, then the absurd lack of robustness thereby revealed would in itself suffice for a rational person outside the profession to avoid the profession's "method" as much as possible.

However, it is so absurd, that I really do wonder whether many educated people really are as devoted to this supposed "method" as is alleged here.

Again, it all depends on the history you want. If you want a complete, if tentative, timeline, you're going to have to make due with bad evidence. If you don' t mind a very fragmentary history, then sure, assume the negative. But you're not going to learn much from history, though.
What has this to do with anything I've posted? Jason once charged that Bayesian methods traffic in some kind of negative. No, they don't. Bayes takes into account all the serious possibilities and all the evidence.

If you want one timeline, you can skim it off the top of the Bayesian result, if you want. You just don't get to pretend that the rest of what's in the cup isn't there.
 
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Yes, but the "die-hard HJers" include people who are professional Historians who have studied this stuff all their lives. The "MJers" don't have such expert support.
That doesn't necessarily mean that they are all correct.


Don't you think, as a layman, that maybe these Professionals deserve a little respect?
I don't know, but this sounds awfully much like an appeal to emotion.

However, I can agree with you and say that these professionals deserve some respect as individuals; what I am doing is questioning how they arrived at their conclusions.


Do you really think they are less capable of objectivity than you, or anyone else?
To be honest I think that quite a few of these historians are not particularly objective when it comes to the historicity of Jesus. I think that these historians are certainly capable of being objective -- it does not appear to me that the current toolset of the historical method is capable of supporting that objectivity.


There seems to be an assumption that if you study Jesus, you believe in Jesus. This is wrong and I wish people would stop insinuating that supporting an HJ means worshipping Christ.
I have never once taken that position and I do not I think that is even remotely true. I do understand what I interpret as your expressed frustration.
 
This is why the Historical Method assumed the positive and attempts to prove the negative (with few exceptions).

The standard is that, lacking any past pattern (Egyptian claims of battles won and how the wins went, for example; this is a known pattern, so lacking something like that), when something arrives as an account for something (we find a text which is appears to be a letter between X figure and Y figure, referencing A, B, C events, and Z figure), if the text itself passes as not a modern forgery (passes paleographic and forensic analysis), then the contents are accepted into the positive tentatively.

Then the comparisons begin whereby we look for names or events we know.
So if A, B, and C are known events, then we can compare their version of these events to other known accounts and see how well they hold to these accounts as a baseline for gauging how to receive this texts' accuracy in accounting.

If, on the other hand, A, B, and C are unknown events and figures X, Y, and Z are also unknown figures, then the entire text is simply entered into the positive record of the Historical Record and left alone.

For instance, the Turin King papyrus could, for all we know, be a completely ancient fabrication as the mass majority of that papyrus is unverified at this point, but the Historical society does not class it as that at all.
Instead, they accept it into the positive (since it was verified as not a modern forgery) and regularly rely on it as the single best source for the Chronology of the Kings of Egypt.

If we just ruled the other direction, as you noted quite accurately, we wouldn't accept this text and we wouldn't have very much in regards to the Chronology of the Kings of Egypt; some dynasties would simply be non-existent, in fact.
As I believe eight bits has said, BT begins with a neutral stance and not with the assumption of the positive or negative. BT lets you be able to logically deduce the probability of the existence or non-existence of the item under question.





Beyond the Historical inheritance standing, and instead a verified proven?
Some verified archaeological finding would help, or if we could maybe one day be allowed to excavate the Temple Mount (not holding my breath), then we may (huge amount of doubt) find a few scraps of material that just might (so unlikely) survived the Temple Destruction and just maybe (oh so unlikely) one text might offer some record (not of Jesus, as that would be beyond amazing) of criminal cases or Law in some fashion helpful in aiding the account of movements in Judea at the time (it would help to know direct records from the Temple regarding these various uprising followings).

But ultimately, the Historical record accepts the existence by inheritance, and a negative having yet to be proven convincing enough.
That method seems to have succeeded so far on the average.

I just can't guarantee that reality always aligns with the Historical Method's inherited or deduced position (it has been wrong in both directions in the past; as all fields have been).
There is nothing inherited and no "verified proven" with BT. You start over from scratch with each question that you would like to find the probability of valid historicity or not and go from there.

Besides if BT does nothing except ensure a more rigorous procedure for probabilities, it causes me to wonder why not more historians cannot simply be using a better tool then the historical method.
 
Eight Bits,

Again, I have never been outspoken against folks using BT.
If folks do not like the Historical Method for Jesus, then any person is free to do as they wish.
I have been rather open about not holding a position in either direction, as I think it is impossible to be certain in either direction.

That said, I do not see reason to assume that we can do better than the Historical society, and I see no reason why we should dismiss the Historical Method.

The way to use it is to prove, or show strong convincing indication that Jesus did not exist to the Historical society.
Short of this, Jesus remains existent in the record.
Carrier has in fact done just this. But then look at all the scorn and derision heaped upon him in this thread (all by non-experts I might add) saying that his ideas are worthless and that we should all continue to trust these experts who have pretty much all arrived at different conclusions based on the same evidence.
 
I DON'T CARE. Deal with that.

You still haven't answered my question: What do you call Richard Carrier's "Jesus only ever existed as a celestial being and not a human being" Theory, to distinguish it from the HJ who has almost nothing to do with the Gospel stories?

I really want to know, so you can finally join the debate that everyone else has been having for the past several years.
This is odd, considering that you quoted Carrier himself and what he has said on the subject of Jesus's historicity.

Carrier has given odds on the mythology of Jesus; this in no way denies the historicity of Jesus. He believes that its just not probable.
 
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The reasoning is that if a change to the historical method would exclude Jesus, it would exclude a lot of other figures of history we assume existed because they have been concluded (tentatively) to exist based on similar or even weaker evidence.

I thought that had been made quite clear.
I don't see that as an actual problem and I don't know why people do. If BT tends to make history more accurate by formalizing the historians' approach to history, it is only a good thing.
 
In each example you named, the denial came from lack of evidence, didn't it ?

No it wasn't a lack of evidence

Continental drift even in 1596 was based on how South American and Africa looked like they fitted together. The reason it was dismissed is that the mechanisms suggested were kludgy at best...when they simply were not testable with the technology of the time.

The existence of Troy was a case were the experts simply dismissed the tale because it was from one author - Homer. Schliemann using only Homer's account for geographic markers found Troy...effectively in the location Homer said it was. Sadly for later experts Schliemann knew as much about real archeology as he knew about flying a rocketship to Mars and really messed up the site.

Heliocentrism actually explained the observed retrograde behavior of the planets that required a ridiculous amount of kludging to work with a Earth centered system (97 :jaw-dropp fiddly bits as Burke described them) By Occam's razor Heliocentrism should have been the go to theory...but it was ignored even when evidence that is made more sense was provided...in 1600. It took the "experts" in the Catholic Church until 1835 or 235 years later to admit that Heliocentrism ...even though the Catholic Church itself had used Heliocentrism as a mathematical convenience for calendar reform as a result of the Council of Trent (1545–1563). In short, Galileo Galilei was charged with teaching as idea that the Church itself has been teaching for at least 37 years!

Heraclides of Pontus (4th century BCE) said that the motion of the star was due to the Earth's rotation and may have also said that Mercury and Venus also orbited the Sun.

Norse colonization of the Americas had the evidence of the "Eirik the Red's Saga" and the "Saga of the Greenlanders" since 14th century. The idea that the sagas may involve real historical events didn't occur to anyone until 1837...nearly 500 years later.

The rejection of the Big Bang theory had to due with the acceptance of Aristotelian cosmology which said the universe had a infinite past. However this conflicted with the Bible itself which said the physical universe had a finite beginning. This Temporal finitism debate was a major issue with medieval theologians and philosophers in not only Christianity but Judaism and Islam as well. (Seymour Feldman (1967). "Gersonides' Proofs for the Creation of the Universe". Proceedings of the American Academy for Jewish Research (Proceedings of the American Academy for Jewish Research, Vol. 35) 35: 113–137. doi:10.2307/3622478. JSTOR 3622478.)

With perhaps the exception of the Big Bang preconceptions NOT lack of evidence was the reason for rejection of the concept in question.
 
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I'm a bit dissapointed with your answer, given that my original question contained parameters that answered your question above:

The question is, what's the conclusion we can derive, in terms of history, from that evidence ? Can we conclude that Jesus was a myth ? Or possibly a man ? And, if so, do what degree does that man correspond to the story ? Or do we simply not know, and leave it at that ? And if we take that last one, what does it say about similar historical figures ?

As Burke pointed out in Day the Universe Changed to even begin asking questions you need a hypothesis in mind.

Which brings us back to my question of how historical are we talking here? Just enough to show that there likely was some preacher-philosopher named Jesus in Galilee between c100 BCE - 70 CE who was executed by the local authorities for causing problems? More than that? How much more?

Remember "myth" refers to any traditional story despite the efforts of folklorists trying to create the subdivisions of myth, legend, and folktale.

"Myth: a usually traditional story of ostensibly historical events that serves to unfold part of the world view of a people or explain a practice, belief, or natural phenomenon" (full definition Merriam-Webster online dictionary)

"Myth: a traditional story, especially one concerning the early history of a people or explaining some natural or social phenomenon, and typically involving supernatural beings or events." (Oxford online dictionary)

Myth in History, History in Myth (2009) BRILL shows just how complex the real definition of myth is and not the Mickey Mouse fictional tale definition the apologists keep using.

"Historical myth may be defined as a narrative, fictional by intention or by the standards of historical scholarship, but expressing the perception of the past as meaningful history" (Myth in History, History in Myth pg 117)
 
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Claiming evidence has not been presented at all is another.



First of all, not reaching a conclusion at all was PART of the post you quoted. Did you read it in full ? Or did you skip chunks of it in your haste ? I asked Maximara what conclusion he thinks we should reach, and the list includes "None".

However, if one concludes that one cannot conclude, this raises the question of what to do with much of recorded history.

The evidence I've seen presented:

The New Testament.
 
As Burke pointed out in Day the Universe Changed to even begin asking questions you need a hypothesis in mind.

Which brings us back to my question of how historical are we talking here? Just enough to show that there likely was some preacher-philosopher named Jesus in Galilee between c100 BCE - 70 CE who was executed by the local authorities for causing problems? More than that? How much more?

Remember "myth" refers to any traditional story despite the efforts of folklorists trying to create the subdivisions of myth, legend, and folktale.

"Myth: a usually traditional story of ostensibly historical events that serves to unfold part of the world view of a people or explain a practice, belief, or natural phenomenon" (full definition Merriam-Webster online dictionary)

"Myth: a traditional story, especially one concerning the early history of a people or explaining some natural or social phenomenon, and typically involving supernatural beings or events." (Oxford online dictionary)

Myth in History, History in Myth (2009) BRILL shows just how complex the real definition of myth is and not the Mickey Mouse fictional tale definition the apologists keep using.

The word 'myth' has been bashed around so much, it is now a big sloppy stain on the ground. I suppose if you take something like Genesis, it is mythical, in the sense of etiological, that is, explaining the causation of something, often something rather big or grand.

But then at the opposite extreme, the urban myth is something probably untrue.

So the meaning of the word is now fuzzy in the extreme. I do prefer 'legendary' for things such as Jesus walking on water; call me old-fashioned. But 'mythical Jesus' seems OK, I guess.
 
I DON'T CARE. Deal with that.

You still haven't answered my question: What do you call Richard Carrier's "Jesus only ever existed as a celestial being and not a human being" Theory, to distinguish it from the HJ who has almost nothing to do with the Gospel stories?

Again, you make another gross misrepresentation of the HJ argument.

The Quest for an Historical Jesus employs the Gospels as PRIMARY evidence.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_Jesus

The term Historical Jesus refers to scholarly reconstructions of the life of Jesus of Nazareth,[3][4][5] based on historical methods including critical analysis of gospel texts as the primary source for his biography.....

I am afraid that you are not coming across as very credible or is not familiar with the Quest for an Historical Jesus.

The Biography for Myth Jesus is the PRIMARY evidence for your HJ.

There is no secondary evidence outside of the NT and apologetics.

HJ is effectively a Myth.
 
Carrier has in fact done just this. But then look at all the scorn and derision heaped upon him in this thread (all by non-experts I might add) saying that his ideas are worthless and that we should all continue to trust these experts who have pretty much all arrived at different conclusions based on the same evidence.



That sort of scorn and derision is absolutely standard in every thread where anyone ever expresses doubt over the existence of Jesus. It happens every time, guaranteed, without exception.

In fact as I highlighted before - in his book published in 1996 (The Jesus Legend), G.A. Wells not only notes that precisely this type of scorn and derision has greeted every single thing he has ever written or said about doubting the existence of Jesus, but he lists at the start of that book 11 typical hostile remarks that he has experienced continuously.

I'm going to take the time and trouble to write out longhand those 11 examples recorded by Wells 20 years ago. See how many you and other sceptics recognise as going on these current HJ threads -


G.A. Wells, The Jesus Legend, Open Court Publishing, 1996, pages 5-6.

1. Question his qualifications to say anything on the subject at all (“does this man know Greek?”)

2. Never give the impression of carefully rebutting a rational argument, but speak patronisingly, as of a crude and discredited theory which deserves no more that a brief mention (eg his book is “fun” and one must admire his mental agility and capacity for belief).

3. Affix distasteful labels to him, suggesting his adherence to discredited philosophical or other modes. (Dispose of Strauss and Baur by saying that the Tubingen School of critical theology was Hegelian. “Negative” is a useful label here, even though the Finish theologian Heikki Raisanen has noted that “the history of biblical study is full of examples from Galileo through to Strauss to Albert Schweitzer which demonstrate that is the “negative” results which have most forcefully driven research forwards.

4. Lump him together with discredited commentators, and if he himself has criticised these, make no mention of that fact.

5. Represent his minor errors and slips as indications of total incompetence.

6. Make plausible-sounding objections to his case as if he were himself unaware of them and had not attempted to answer them.

7. Say he relies on certain a priori dogmas; for instance, claim that he rejects the New testament miracles not because he gives grounds for finding the evidence for them in the documents inadequate, nor because he is able, additionally, to account for the narratives without recourse to the idea of supernatural intervention, but because he arbitrarily rules out in advance the idea of supernatural events.

8. Pick on a book he does not mention - the literature on his subject being illimitable - and call his failure to do so a “serious omission”.

9. Do not produce arguments, but appeal to “authorities”, alleging them to have settled all that is in question. At the same time, complain that he does no more than this, and also that the authorities on which he relies are out of date.

10. State his case in an elliptical way which while it would not mislead the few who already knew his work, will make others suppose that he is defending an untenable, even absurd, position,. Above all, do not quote him at any length if his arguments are difficult to answer: (“No purpose is served by questioning the maverick and ill-founded views of G.A. Wells”).

11. Adduce propositions which, while themselves true, are irrelevant to his case.



That is of course from the authors point of view of criticism attacking what he had written in books. Here on forums like this, and it was always absolutely identical 5 years ago on the old Richard Dawkins Forum, and then 3 years ago on rational scepticism, where a huge amount of that abuse and ridicule came from a person named Tim O’Neil, but also in smaller measure from almost every single person defending a belief in a HJ here in these threads, where those examples of absolutely standard use of ridicule, scorn and dismissive abuse, are typically such as -

A. Say, "Lies, Liar, and Lying ... and say it often.

B. Describe opponents as idiots, say they show themselves to be obsessed with irrational disbelief, dismiss them scornfully as ill-informed and repetitive fools.

C. Compare them to Creationists and other religious nut cases. As if implying that scientific rigour is on your side supporting belief in Jesus and the "evidence" of the bible, and not the other way around where sceptics asking for any proper objective rational evidence are thereby dismissed as being as unscientific as Creationists who would deny the evidence for evolution just as they deny the evidence for Jesus. Likewise, even try comparing sceptics to holocaust deniers.

D. Dismiss them with derogatory labels such as "Myther" and "Mythisicist", denying such labels are ever derogatory, but say they are just what these people are, and that its just standard terminology.

E. Say they are ignorant of the subject and unfit to question the views of expert scholars.

F. Ask them to explain what could have been meant by the most obscure and vague passages of religious copyist writing.

G. Assert that you yourself do know what was meant by such vague and obscure religious writing ("it must mean so & so...").

H. Instead of writing detailed explanatory replies, keep making ultra brief demands for evidence (inc. evidence of non-existent people) and one-line remarks of ridicule and personalised abuse.

I. Never ever produce any evidence for a living Jesus, but instead appeal to authority saying "the evidence has been given, and every qualified person agrees upon it". If they suggest any disagreement, tell them they must publish their HJ objections in the biblical history journals, otherwise they must shut up.

J. Never admit that almost all the most frequently cited "historians" are in fact bible-studies scholars drowning in a mass of religious qualifications, and teaching religious studies from various institutes.

K. Compare Jesus to other poorly evidenced figures, inc. rulers and philosophers who were said to perform miracles, and say they were all just as real as one-another, regardless of whether there is evidence for any of them or not.

L. Claim that we must not expect evidence for Jesus because he was so little known, as if that was an excuse for having no evidence, or as if it itself constituted evidence for him.

M. Claim that certain things in the bible could be evidence of a real Jesus, because they are realistic as place names (eg Jerusalem) or common names (eg Peter or Mary), as if such realistic elements did not occur in absolutely every untrue fairy story (eg in Alice in Wonderland - girls do exist, Alice is a common name, Hares do exist, the month of March exists … etc).

N,O,P,Q …. X, Y, …

Z. Greet such as 1-11 and A-M above with a trite dismissal such as “me thinks thou doth protest too much” … but whilst still failing ever to provide any credible evidence whatsoever for a living human Jesus.
 
That sort of scorn and derision is absolutely standard in every thread where anyone ever expresses doubt over the existence of Jesus. It happens every time, guaranteed, without exception.

In fact as I highlighted before - in his book published in 1996 (The Jesus Legend), G.A. Wells not only notes that precisely this type of scorn and derision has greeted every single thing he has ever written or said about doubting the existence of Jesus, but he lists at the start of that book 11 typical hostile remarks that he has experienced continuously.

I'm going to take the time and trouble to write out longhand those 11 examples recorded by Wells 20 years ago. See how many you and other sceptics recognise as going on these current HJ threads...

*snipped out of brevity*
I think I'm going to keep this for the predictions for 2014... and 2015... and 2016....

Thank you for taking the trouble. I doubt it will impact anyone's behavior who has actually done these things here on JREF, but one may always hope.
 
I think I'm going to keep this for the predictions for 2014... and 2015... and 2016....

Thank you for taking the trouble. I doubt it will impact anyone's behavior who has actually done these things here on JREF, but one may always hope.

Sadly true.

ETA: Years ago on the EvC forum I first got involved in the HJ/MJ controversy. At that time I was fairly confident an HJ existed, I'd never examined the evidence but I assumed that where there was smoke there was fire then the curtain was pulled back revealing the smoke machine.
 
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OK, then check out Tacitus, XV, 44. That's a Roman source.

Tacitus?
Tacitus wrote his Annals in 116 CE.
Remember, the Roman records were destroyed in Nero's Great Fire and the Jewish, in the destruction of Jerusalem in 69-70 CE.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Tacitus think the name of the leader of the sect he's talking about was Chrestus?

Do you have any reason to think Tacitus did other than repeat an unsubstantiated second or fifth-hand report?
Is there any corroborative evidence to back up his mention of the persecution of the Christians?

I ask all this because the Tacitus passage is subject to questioning and I'm interested in knowing why you take it seriously.
 
OK, then check out Tacitus, XV, 44. That's a Roman source.

Doubtful provenance, contested interpretation.

ETA: ninjaed by a flightless bird with a teddy bear fixation.
 
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Tacitus?
Tacitus wrote his Annals in 116 CE.
Remember, the Roman records were destroyed in Nero's Great Fire and the Jewish, in the destruction of Jerusalem in 69-70 CE.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Tacitus think the name of the leader of the sect he's talking about was Chrestus?

Do you have any reason to think Tacitus did other than repeat an unsubstantiated second or fifth-hand report?
Is there any corroborative evidence to back up his mention of the persecution of the Christians?

I ask all this because the Tacitus passage is subject to questioning and I'm interested in knowing why you take it seriously.

Do you have any evidence to show that Tacitus didn't simply make a transcription error from "Christus" to "Chrestus"? Is there any other contemporary evidence of or reference to this "Chrestus"?
 
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