Australian Federal Election 2010

[lionking]

Clutching at straws again I see!

No he's not. You made the statement, justify it. All Alfie can say is "just guessing".

Across the board swings of 7% have occurred (to Whitlam, and ironically to Fraser). With Abbott at the helm, and with a close election last time, a 10% across the board swing is vanishingly unlikely. So an extraordinary claim. Prove it. (And opinion polls don't count. They are like yo-yos)

 

[Hallo Alfie]

Across the board swings of 7% have occurred (to Whitlam, and ironically to Fraser). With Abbott at the helm, and with a close election last time, a 10% across the board swing is vanishingly unlikely. So an extraordinary claim. Prove it. (And opinion polls don't count. They are like yo-yos)

Actually opinion polls do count; anyone who dismisses them does so at their peril. At the moment the difference is 14%. i.e. more than 10% which is what amb is claiming. At this point that is all he needs to prove anything.

 

[lionking]

Actually opinion polls do count; anyone who dismisses them does so at their peril. At the moment the difference is 14%. i.e. more than 10% which is what amb is claiming. At this point that is all he needs to prove anything.

Crap. Anyone who believes that knows nothing about Australian politics. The electorate here has never been that polarised. If Labor had a 5% lead I could understand a 7% or 8% swing, but with it being 50:50, no way. And certainly not with the worst Opposition Leader ever. Gillard is ahead as preferred PM, and the polls will continue to swing (back to Labor almost certainly), but only a fool would predict a swing of 10% or more.

 

[amb]

With the worse opposition leader ever yes, I agree with you lionkimg. But i did put a requisite on that 10% figure. I said if the Liberal party is smart and dumps Abbott before any election. Jeezus, without Abbott, I see an even greater percentage than 10%.

Having said that, at present we have both, the worse ever PM and the worse ever opposition leader.

 

[Wildy]

Just guessing, but as it stands there is a 14 point difference between the two parties on 2pp at the moment. Apply that accross the board and you have a massacre of monumental proportions.

Which is the difference between the parties on 2pp, not the swing.

Clutching at straws again I see!

Er, no actually. You said that there would be a 10% swing, that's something that you need to back up.

Actually opinion polls do count; anyone who dismisses them does so at their peril. At the moment the difference is 14%. i.e. more than 10% which is what amb is claiming. At this point that is all he needs to prove anything.

As I said before this is the difference between the 2pp vote, not the swing. I'm guessing you're boggled because you don't understand what "swing" is, or at least understand the basics of how it is calculated. Essentially it's the difference from the last election's 2pp compared to, in this case, the polling data's 2pp. Now that you and amb know this I'm sure you'll be able to show this 10% swing huh?

 

[Hallo Alfie]

Which is the difference between the parties on 2pp, not the swing.

Good point; fair enough

 

[bit_pattern]

As I said before this is the difference between the 2pp vote, not the swing. I'm guessing you're boggled because you don't understand what "swing" is, or at least understand the basics of how it is calculated. Essentially it's the difference from the last election's 2pp compared to, in this case, the polling data's 2pp. Now that you and amb know this I'm sure you'll be able to show this 10% swing huh?

Oh... This is GOLD.

Anyway...

SO the MRRT passed this morning. Another big win for Gillard. She's proven quite adept at negotiating her way through the hung parliament and getting some pretty big pieces of legislation through.

You'd never believe it if all you ever read was The Australian or any of the other News rags, like some obvious people in this thread, but for all the heat and bluster in the media this has been a very successful government

The mining tax
The Clean Energy Bill
The super increase
Pension increases
Plain packaging

It's starting to add up to a pretty impressive list.

 

[Wildy]

SO the MRRT passed this morning. Another big win for Gillard. She's proven quite adept at negotiating her way through the hung parliament and getting some pretty big pieces of legislation through.

Except that apparently the ability to negotiate has all of a sudden become a poor trait to have. From what certain people in this thread have been saying the correct trait is to be completely stubborn and partisan when faced with a hung parliament.

 

[amb]

Which is the difference between the parties on 2pp, not the swing.



Er, no actually. You said that there would be a 10% swing, that's something that you need to back up.



As I said before this is the difference between the 2pp vote, not the swing. I'm guessing you're boggled because you don't understand what "swing" is, or at least understand the basics of how it is calculated. Essentially it's the difference from the last election's 2pp compared to, in this case, the polling data's 2pp. Now that you and amb know this I'm sure you'll be able to show this 10% swing huh?

I found this. Far above my ten percent.
http://au.nielsen.com/news/200512.shtml

 

[lionking]

I found this. Far above my ten percent.
http://au.nielsen.com/news/200512.shtml

Bloody hell, missing the point completely. Don't you read posts other than Alfie's?

 

[Wildy]

I found this. Far above my ten percent.
http://au.nielsen.com/news/200512.shtml

Well you're certainly correct when it comes to the 2pp difference between the parties, but that doesn't show a 10% swing.

 

[amb]

Nielson's figures are 2 PP. What is there to comprehend. Whichever way one looks at those figures, Labor is kaput for perhaps decades and more if not for ever.

 

[amb]

Well you're certainly correct when it comes to the 2pp difference between the parties, but that doesn't show a 10% swing.

No, it's much wider.

 

[Damien Evans]

With the worse opposition leader ever yes, I agree with you lionkimg. But i did put a requisite on that 10% figure. I said if the Liberal party is smart and dumps Abbott before any election. Jeezus, without Abbott, I see an even greater percentage than 10%.

Having said that, at present we have both, the worse ever PM and the worse ever opposition leader.

I was unaware that James Scullin was currently the Prime Minister.

 

[amb]

Arguable who is worse, Scullin or Gillard. I think Gillard by a nose.

 

[Wildy]

No, it's much wider.

Then you have no idea what a swing is.

 

[Hallo Alfie]

http://www.theage.com.au/national/boat-arrivals-exceed-600-a-month-20111123-1nuzh.html#ixzz1eYN55jJv

600 a month is tipping point apparently

Two boats, carrying 144 asylum seekers and crew, were intercepted yesterday, quickly passing the controversial ''600 a month'' threshold that Immigration Department secretary Andrew Metcalfe warned in private briefings would make immigration detention unviable and could lead to European-style social unrest.

and

Asylum seeker arrivals have more than doubled since October, when Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced the effective end of offshore processing because the opposition would not pass legislation to overcome a High Court ban on the Malaysia refugee swap.

Four boats in three days! Heaven help us when another crashes on the rocks (there was a near miss just days ago btw). Some may have forgotten, but there was on average three per year under the Pacific Solution between 2003 and 2008.

 

[Alan]

Nielson's figures are 2 PP. What is there to comprehend. Whichever way one looks at those figures, Labor is kaput for perhaps decades and more if not for ever.

I recall people saying that about the liberal party after the 2007 election.

Predictions about what will happen politically perhaps decades and more from now are not good.

 

[Hallo Alfie]

This seems rather serious.

Greens Leader Bob Brown will be investigated by the Senate Privileges Committee over allegations he used his position to help a major political donor.

The Senate has agreed to a motion put forward by Liberal Helen Kroger, who called for Senator Brown to explain his alleged advocacy for Graeme Wood, the founder of accommodation website Wotif.

The motion asks the Privileges Committee to investigate whether Senator Brown sought a benefit from Mr Wood to act in his interests - including the asking of questions in Question Time.

It also asks whether Mr Wood improperly influenced Greens senators.

The allegations relate to Mr Wood's purchase of a woodchip mill from Gunns Limited.

 

[bit_pattern]

This seems rather serious.

Greens Leader Bob Brown will be investigated by the Senate Privileges Committee over allegations he used his position to help a major political donor.

The Senate has agreed to a motion put forward by Liberal Helen Kroger, who called for Senator Brown to explain his alleged advocacy for Graeme Wood, the founder of accommodation website Wotif.

The motion asks the Privileges Committee to investigate whether Senator Brown sought a benefit from Mr Wood to act in his interests - including the asking of questions in Question Time.

It also asks whether Mr Wood improperly influenced Greens senators.

The allegations relate to Mr Wood's purchase of a woodchip mill from Gunns Limited.

You'd sure like it to be serious and I'm sure it will be a complete beat-up.