At what point do you write off NOLA?

[RandFan]

Believe me, there is a part of me that shares those feelings..


But do you believe you would be well served if your town was devasted by a disaster, then rebuilt with no steps taken to drastically reduce the risk of it ever happening again? Untill we start harnessing hurricanes, that risk is not going to go away in New Orleans.

I'm not sure I agee with this. I have heard a number of people say this is very unlikely to happen again soon. This was a one in a hundred year event and I have heard the levees can be made secure.

Hey, if it is shown to be too great of a cost and there is too great a risk then I would say don't rebuild. I don't know how much is too much though. My original sentiment was one of hope. I'll stick with that. I have no demands.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

............. I have heard a number of people say this is very unlikely to happen again soon..

You can't imagine how much better that makes me feel.


In other words, most of us will probably be long dead before it happens again, so no problem?




Sadly, this is probably the reasoning that will prevail...

 

[drkitten]

In other words, most of us will probably be long dead before it happens again, so no problem?

No, meaning that the cost-benefit calculations are more likely to favor rebuilding if these kind of devastating events are rare.

Consider one of my favorite North American cities -- Vancouver, Canada. A truly beautiful city, some lovely countryside, and incidentally, the only deep-water, large-capacity harbor that Canada has on the Pacific coast. Almost all of the Canada-Far East trade moves through that harbor -- something like thirty billon dollars in goods per yer, and increasing at 10-15% per year.

And it's more or less right atop an active volcano. If Mount St. Helens really blows her stack, Vancouver will disappear in a Pompeiian cloud of ash.

Let's say that it will take, oh, one hundred billion dollars to re-build Vancouver if/when that happens. Let's also say that the government's rakeoff from the shipping is a mere one percent; three billion dollars per year. If this is the case, then Vancouver generates more money every forty years than it would take to rebuild the city from the ground up, and it's well worth the price of rebuilding her as long as major eruptions happen less often than every forty years.

So far we're doing okay. Vancouver has been there for two hundred years and hasn't been wiped out yet. Looks like building it was a good investment and rebuilding it will still be a good investment.

 

[hammegk]

No, meaning that the cost-benefit calculations are more likely to favor rebuilding if these kind of devastating events are rare.

For events of this magnitude, politics will shape the cost-benefit numbers.


LOOP, and all oil production/refining/pipeline facilities will be rebuilt. NO may will continue to offer the best locale. Or does someone suggest Houma should replace NO?

A consortium of Exxon/Chevron/BP/Kerr McGee and other major players in the Gulf would imo be best suited to answer these questions.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

No, meaning that the cost-benefit calculations are more likely to favor rebuilding if these kind of devastating events are rare................

Interesting that You use an example that has never been tested...


However I see your point. And providing the area settles down rather quickly geologically, it will be a simple matter of bringing in earth moving equipment and leveling things out. Nothing to tear down, the 500,000 or so bodies pretty much taken care of..

They might get real lucky and have the survivors of a city destroyed by a hurricane move right in and repopulate the place.

Maybe Vancouver could become the new home of Mardi Gras .. That would get the economy rolling while waiting for the harbor to be ramped up to full speed..

However, February in Vancouver could have a devastating effect on some of those Mardi Gras traditions...

 

[BPSCG]

Here's a despairing view.

No American city has ever gone through what New Orleans must go through: the complete (if temporary) flight of its most affluent and capable citizens, followed by social breakdown among those left behind, after which must come the total reconstruction of economic and physical infrastructure by a devastated populace.

The truth is that even on a normal day, New Orleans is a sad city. Sure, tourists think New Orleans is fun: you can drink and hop from strip club to strip club all night on Bourbon Street, and gamble all your money away at Harrah’s. But the city’s decline over the past three decades has left it impoverished and lacking the resources to build its economy from within. New Orleans can’t take care of itself even when it is not 80 percent underwater; what is it going to do now, as waters continue to cripple it, and thousands of looters systematically destroy what Katrina left unscathed?

The richest big city in the country in more ways than one mustered every ounce of energy to clean up after 9/11 and to rebuild its economy and its downtown—but even so, competing special interests overcame citizens’ and officials’ best intentions. Ground Zero remains a hole, and New York, for all its resources, finds itself diminished, physically and economically, four years on.

Apart from some pass-through oil infrastructure, the city’s economy is utterly dependent on tourism.

New Orleans is seven feet below sea level. If you left town ahead of the storm and your house was destroyed, how eager would you be to rebuild there? The people with the means to do so left ahead of the storm; how many of them will ever come back? Will what's left behind become the 21st-century version of John Steinbeck's 1930's Okies?

"To me," said Bernadette Washington, "it just seems like black people are marked. We have so many troubles and problems."

"After this," her husband, Brian Thomas, said, "I want to move my family to California."

 

[DavoMan]

My personal opinion is that its about time America got a kick up the arse. USA is big enough to go around picking fights but still weak enough to suffer one attack from mother nature.

America isn't indestructable. I wonder how many people in America appreciate the suffering in poor & violent ridden countries now.