Astrology test protocol in progress..

[Hokulele]

BTW, specifically what birth information is required by the astrologer? If it's just date and location to a city, I can try a friend who is involved in managing databases of standardized tests (and other stuff) who might be able to provide what we need. I doubt very much time of birth is available that way (but, I also suspect time of birth is only available accurate to within an hour or so from most people anyway).

From an earlier post:

One more thing, as a reply to few of the PM's I've received, I don't know the details yet, but "the astrologer" wants an accurate time of birth. We are talking minutes here, so anyone who wishes to take part should have their birth certificate at hand (he might also require this as a proof), otherwise it just doesn't serve the purpose. Keep them coming though, I will get a good idea of the amount of available volunteers I can reach from this forum and will PM and post the details as soon as I have them.

It sounds like that may rule out the database. Nuts.

 

[Kuko 4000]

The astrologer wants:

EXAMPLE:

Date of birth: 09.12.1945 (December 9, 1945)
Time of birth: 02:48 (2:48 am)
Location of birth: Los Angeles, California, US

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

It sounds like that may rule out the database. Nuts.

Yeah, it also rules out pretty much any other way of providing time of birth.

They simply aren't that accurate. The time of birth isn't even well-defined. (The difference between the time the head comes out and the rest of the body can vary considerably, and times recorded on documents aren't done in any consistent or scientific way. If people aren't relying on what's on such a document, then they're relying on even faultier memory.)

Again, I think we could be accurate to within an hour, but I do not think any better is possible. (I don't know if the information associated with standardized tests in these databases has anything better than a date of birth, though.)

 

[pseudobeliever]

Yeah, it also rules out pretty much any other way of providing time of birth.

They simply aren't that accurate. The time of birth isn't even well-defined. (The difference between the time the head comes out and the rest of the body can vary considerably, and times recorded on documents aren't done in any consistent or scientific way. If people aren't relying on what's on such a document, then they're relying on even faultier memory.)

Again, I think we could be accurate to within an hour, but I do not think any better is possible. (I don't know if the information associated with standardized tests in these databases has anything better than a date of birth, though.)

It`s supposed to be the time of your first breath

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

The astrologer wants:

EXAMPLE:

Date of birth: 09.12.1945 (December 9, 1945)
Time of birth: 02:48 (2:48 am)
Location of birth: Los Angeles, California, US

Of course, no one knows their time of birth accurate to within a minute or even, I suspect within 10 minutes. We could certainly use a number like that, but it's not very reasonable to think 2:48 is more correct than 2:35.

Again "birth" isn't really an instantaneous event as much as it is a process that can take many hours.

Do the apparent position of planets have an effect on the person at the moment of, for example, the first contraction of labor? the moment the water breaks? the first moment the head crowns? the birth of the head but not the body? the birth of the entire body but not the placenta? the birth of the placenta? the moment the baby takes its first breath? the moment the umbilical cord is cut?

My guess is that times recorded on hospital documents use at least a number of these different events (and even plain old guestimates). I doubt very much any 3 watches a typical obstetrician or midwife or nurse wears will give the time consistent to within one minute.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

It`s supposed to be the time of your first breath

Says who?

I guarantee you, not all birth documents use that standard.

 

[Kuko 4000]

Yeah, it also rules out pretty much any other way of providing time of birth.

They simply aren't that accurate. The time of birth isn't even well-defined. (The difference between the time the head comes out and the rest of the body can vary considerably, and times recorded on documents aren't done in any consistent or scientific way. If people aren't relying on what's on such a document, then they're relying on even faultier memory.)

Again, I think we could be accurate to within an hour, but I do not think any better is possible. (I don't know if the information associated with standardized tests in these databases has anything better than a date of birth, though.)

Yeah, I'm aware of the many problems regarding the time of birth:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5199656&postcount=11

If he needs an accurate (I know, I know ) time of birth to perform his magic, I will do my best to make him happy.

He will accept the time that reads on the birth certificate or something similar.

 

[Kuko 4000]

I asked what kinds of stuff is easiest for him to read from the birth details, here is the relevant part of the answer. Get ready for a Google translation (he is pretty articulate in real life):

Map to see whether the person-oriented ways, namely whether it is primarily the domestic mouse, whether or independent mavericks, whether or relationship oriented, whether or perhaps a prominent type of out there in the world. Or is this fair to all.

- The four goals of life:
Secular, materialistic, fixed assets
Pleasures of drink to food, the arts, elegance, love
Philosophical and religious
The drive to enlightenment, self-realization


Then there is the talent. It is not an explicit thing, because people are very complex creatures. It is academic skills, technical skills, artistic skills, communication skills, wisdom, intelligence, creativity, fairness, etc. Map search can be considered which are the primary stuff, and then can be examined what kind of learning is a tendency, or what types of designs are essential for the workplace relationship. For example we can say that this type of strong leadership skills, or that this guy is clearly a leader type. And in another it can be seen that there is no president or leader of the properties, which is carrying out a worker. And some designs work relationships are weak, which has for long periods of unemployment in life.

Then there is the example substance use. Map shows quite clearly whether a person has addictive tendencies, whether or not the use of drugs, etc. Some just do not at all, in other real heavy substance abuse.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

I asked what kinds of stuff is easiest for him to read from the birth details, here is the relevant part of the answer. Get ready for a Google translation (he is pretty articulate in real life):

It seems to me that we could come up with a few specific questions that can be fairly objectively answered that would correspond with these points.

Whether someone has received treatment for any kind of addiction.

A list of skills and talents. (These can be listed very similar to the way they might appear on a resume.)

A statement of overall life goals.

A statement about one's religious affiliations and/or philosophical outlook. (I would limit this literally to one sentence.)

A brief list of favorite foods, pasttimes, arts, hobbies.

ETA: I think I misread the "4 goals section"--does he mean that each person is dominated by on of the 4 goal areas? I was rather thinking he could discern information about each of the 4 categories.

Again, the biggest problem with this is to make sure that the subjects are similar enough in age and socio-economic-linguistic background that there would be no give aways in this writing. I would say if you can get all subjects in a range of something like 30-60 years of age (would eliminate stage of life info from younger and older people) and all from the same country (for linguistic and socio-economic similarity), it should be fine.

Speaking of linguistic issues, since he doesn't speak English, how would these statements be translated? Perhaps subtle differences in idioms and such would be a moot point if these things go through Google translation anyway. Would he be given the originals at all, or just the translations?

He will accept the time that reads on the birth certificate or something similar.

I know I'm re-hashing something that's already been addressed, but it is pretty important. Many birth certificates do not show any time of birth. Can a person participate without a time of birth?

In real life, even Vedic astrologers do not turn away paying customers who don't have this information. From what I read, they prefer to be told that the time is unknown to a guessed time.

Does your friend refuse to do readings on people who don't have this information (or who only have it as a remembered guess--such as "in the middle of the day" or "very early in the morning")?

It's only fair that a test of his claimed abilities accurately reflect his claimed abilities. Does he really turn away customers who don't know their time of birth?

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Then there is the example substance use. Map shows quite clearly whether a person has addictive tendencies, whether or not the use of drugs, etc. Some just do not at all, in other real heavy substance abuse.

What if we limit it to that single question? I think we could readily get 10 subjects, 5 of whom have had addiction/substance abuse issues in their lives and 5 who have not. Give only that information (yes or no on substance abuse) and the birth information and see if he can correctly match each of the 10 birth info sets to the yes/no question. (It could even be an unknown number of each category.)

 

[Kuko 4000]

Speaking of linguistic issues, since he doesn't speak English, how would these statements be translated? Perhaps subtle differences in idioms and such would be a moot point if these things go through Google translation anyway. Would he be given the originals at all, or just the translations?

He is fluent in english, I just didn't want to go through the trouble of translating our e-mail discussion since the point comes across fine enough through a Google translation.

 

[Kuko 4000]

I know I'm re-hashing something that's already been addressed, but it is pretty important. Many birth certificates do not show any time of birth. Can a person participate without a time of birth?

You are correct, many don't, but as my PM box shows, there are already many volunteers who have this info. This won't be a problem when looking for volunteers.

In real life, even Vedic astrologers do not turn away paying customers who don't have this information. From what I read, they prefer to be told that the time is unknown to a guessed time.

Does your friend refuse to do readings on people who don't have this information (or who only have it as a remembered guess--such as "in the middle of the day" or "very early in the morning")?

It's only fair that a test of his claimed abilities accurately reflect his claimed abilities. Does he really turn away customers who don't know their time of birth?

I'm pretty sure most of the astrologers don't mind this in real life. However, like I've said before, I don't want to leave any unnecessary outs for the astrologer, especially when it's not a problem to find 10 or 20 volunteers with "accurate" details.

 

[pseudobeliever]

Says who?

I guarantee you, not all birth documents use that standard.

well,it is in Chinese and Vedic astrologies

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

well,it is in Chinese and Vedic astrologies

But not in birth certificates or among obstetricians, midwives and nurses who record that kind of information.

My point is, that if Chinese and Vedic astrologers can only do their thing with accurate to within a minute birth times (defined as you do, the moment of the first breath), then they should turn away pretty much ALL their paying customers because that information isn't known.

But they don't, so I think when it comes to doing a test of their claims, they should admit that they do not need that accurate and consistent time of birth information, since it is not available.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

You are correct, many don't, but as my PM box shows, there are already many volunteers who have this info. This won't be a problem when looking for volunteers.

But actually it will. Even for people who do have a time of birth recorded on their documents, there is no guarantee that the number used is at all accurate. There is no standard practice among obstetricians, midwives and so on for defining or recording time of birth.

So the astrologer already does have an "out" if he wants it. I think it's better to get him to admit up front that accurate to within a minute (or even 10 minutes) time of birth info is not necessary or possible. He should accept up front that the information is only accurate to within an hour at best.

 

[dlorde]

A couple of thoughts on individuals assessing their own trait predictions - people tend to normalise their opinions of their behaviours, so that, for example, those more generous than average will tend to underestimate their generosity, and those more 'careful' with their resources will tend to underestimate how 'careful' they are. Compounding this is the way the predictions are phrased - if they're phrased positively, e.g. 'You're generous with time/money' or 'You're economical with time/money' you'll get quite different responses than to 'You're profligate with time/money' or 'You're parsimonious with time/money'.

In this respect, it may well be true that friends & relatives are better, more objective judges than the individuals concerned.

 

[Kuko 4000]

But actually it will. Even for people who do have a time of birth recorded on their documents, there is no guarantee that the number used is at all accurate. There is no standard practice among obstetricians, midwives and so on for defining or recording time of birth.

I know I know, like I said, I am willing to dance with him, even though it doesn't make any REAL sense to me. I want everything to be as he wants it to be, as far as it doesn't compromise the test. So in this sense (let's call it the astrologers land of makebelieve), it wont be a problem. I will provide him with details that someone has written on the paper, just because it makes him happy

So the astrologer already does have an "out" if he wants it. I think it's better to get him to admit up front that accurate to within a minute (or even 10 minutes) time of birth info is not necessary or possible. He should accept up front that the information is only accurate to within an hour at best.

This is where my approach is different. I want to follow his rules as far as possible, and if he still tries to claim this as an "out" I feel I have even more ways to show him the absurdity of it all - if he couldn't do it with the "official" times, how on earth could he do it any other way.

 

[Kuko 4000]

Something interesting has come up. I might have access to birth details of people with a proven record of substance abuse. This is one of the areas where the astrologer felt most confident about, at least in the email he sent me.

Google translation:

"Then there is the example substance use. Map shows quite clearly whether a person has addictive tendencies, whether or not the use of drugs, etc. Some just do not at all, in other real heavy substance abuse."

What about having 5 volunteers with a history of substance abuse and 5 who do not. He would then have to connect the dots. I'm lousy at grasping the odds of something like this intuitively.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

I like it. Seems to me his claim is that the charts show addiction clearly enough that he should be able to get 10 of 10 right. (The difference between having a history of substance abuse and not is pretty dramatic!)

If not, with such a small sample size, I wouldn't be willing to let him count any more than 2 of 10 wrong as a success. I'm sure someone here knows how to do the statistics to tell us how many he'd need to get right in order to rule out chance with some level of confidence.

ETA: If he knows there's 5 of each, he could guess all yes or all no and be sure to get 5 of 10 right.

 

[sol invictus]

Do you mean that when the volunteers have chosen the profile that they got most hits in, I, or whoever works as the middle man, would then see how the points compare with the overall point distribution, and if the target persons have significantly higher rate of "hits" than the average the test is a success? Damn the language barrier, it makes certain kind of thinking very difficult, especially when the field is pretty much unknown to me, apologies for that.

Yes, and then compare the results to the null hypothesis - which in this case is the hypothesis that the astrologer's profiles fit their target no better than a randomly selected one.

Here's a possible procedure:

1) find the average (over everyone) number of hits participants give to profiles that are NOT their own

2) find the average (over those that had one) number of hits that the participants gave to their own profile

3) based on 1) and 2), determine with what confidence you can reject the null hypothesis. Basically the question you're asking is this: give a set of randomly distributed numbers with mean and variance as in 1), what is the probability that the three(?) additional such numbers in 2) differ from 1) by as much as x (where x is the amount 2) differs from 1) in the real data). If that probability is less than .05 or so, you can call the result significant.

Computing that probability is simple given some assumptions about the distribution in 1). You could also write a little computer code to simulate the experiment (assuming the null hypothesis) to check that.

Alternatively you might use some statistic other than the average in 2). I don't see what would be better, but perhaps there is something.

You should also decide in advance whether you would accept anomalously low scores in 2) as significant (i.e. if the astrologer's profiles fit their subjects much worse than a random profile does, do you consider that evidence for anything). I'd say not, which affects the calculation of significance (you use a one-tailed distribution instead of two-tailed).