It's all just a bubble, right?
....snip...
There is a financial bubble at the moment. Think of it like the first "dot com" bubble, the internet and WWW did result in immense changes, many that we are still adjusting to now, but that was separate and largely independent of the gambling, sorry I meant the rigourous, objective and data led financial investments.
The current AIs, even if they didn't make any further progress in ability, would result in tremendous changes over the next few decades, they truly will reshape our world, and it will be in many ways we can't imagine at the moment. But that doesn't mean there isn't a financial bubble.
One of the major issues at the moment that is a direct result of the bubble is that folk are chasing the money. Which means no one wants to in essence freeze their AI development so that they have a stable platform to develop new and robust technology. I know one company that has spent the last 10 months using what is now a 12 month old opensource LLM AI to build new tools for game developers, they now have a suite of tools that can significantly speed up aspects of game development. They found attracting external funding very difficult as they were and are constantly being asked why they are using such "old" AI, why aren't they using "today's latest AI". The reason being is that these tools
fully work, they integrate with current popular development tools and
they have been extensively tested. If they had kept dropping in "today's latest and bestest ever AI" they would have been forever chasing their tails. They are now looking at how they can update their AI without having to reinvent the wheel every 5 minutes.
Companies need stability to first of all understand what the current crop of AI can do for their businesses, to then research how to implement the changes, and then to implement them. At the moment most boards seem to be screaming at middle management "we need AI now", and middle management going "to do what?" And the response they get - when you boil it down - is "need to mention it in the quarterly earnings call" or "marketing says we must have 'it' "