Okay, let's use the chair analogy and see how many possibilities that we can come up with.
1.) I saw a chair in the room.
A.) I believe this is the only chair that exists.
B.) I believe other chairs exist that I haven't seen.
C.) I don't know if other chairs exist.
2.) I didn't see a chair in the room.
A.) I believe that no chairs exist.
B.) I believe chairs exist that I haven't seen.
C.) I don't know if chairs exist.
3.) I read a document that described chairs.
A.) I believe chairs exist because of the document.
B.) I believe other chairs exist that were not mentioned in the document.
C.) I don't know if other chairs exist.
D.) I don't believe other chairs exist because they weren't mentioned.
E.) I don't believe other chairs exist because the document stated that they didn't.
4.) I believe that documents exist that describe chairs.
A.) I believe chairs exist because of my belief in these documents.
B.) I believe other chairs exist even if they are not mentioned in the documents.
C.) I don't know if chairs exist.
D.) I will believe chairs exist unless I find out that these documents don't exist.
E.) I will believe chairs described in these documents exist and other chairs exist unless these documents say that other chairs don't exist.
5.) Someone else told me that they saw a chair in the room.
A.) I believe this chair exists because someone told me.
a. I believe this is the only chair that exists.
b. I believe that no other chairs exist.
c. I don't know if other chairs exist.
B.) I don't believe what someone told me about chairs.
a. I don't believe that chairs exist.
b. I still believe that chairs exist.
c. I believe in that person's chair but not others.
d. I believe in that person's chair and others.
e. I believe in that person's chair but don't know about others.
f. I don't know if I believe this person.
C.) I don't know if anyone has seen a chair.
...
I haven't begun to cover all the possibilities. There are things like associative belief and contingent belief and exclusionary belief, etc.
For example, is it the same to say that life could exist on one of Jupiter's moons and saying that life does exist on one of Jupiter's moons or saying that you believe that certain observations would make it more or less likely?
As it is commonly used, belief is either the same as giving a personal assertion what something is "I believe this will work," or is a statement of prediction "I believe this will go on sale". However, it can also be used as a statement of opinion, "I believe that's the right thing to do." In this type of usage, it is synonymous with "think".
I think this will work.
I think this will go on sale.
I think that's the right thing to do.
When used with God these make very weak statements, such as:
I think God cares.
Often when people make a strong statement about belief they will phrase it differently, such as:
I'm certain this will work.
I'm positive this will go on sale.
I think that's absolutely the right thing to do.
This type of phrasing still allows for experiential error. In other words, this is right unless my experiences have given me the wrong idea. This is not as strong as denying all uncertainty such as:
I know this will work.
This will go on sale.
That was the right thing to do.
Let's try substituting God:
I'm certain God cares.
This is still quite weak. Let's try the stronger form:
I know God cares.
This sounds almost like an attempt at self-persuasion.
However, statements of core values are usually not phrased this way.
I believe in freedom.
The most important thing to me is my family.
I would be lost without you.
Notice that these can be substituted with God.
I believe in God.
The most important thing to me is God.
I would be lost without God.
Notice that these sound much more typical. This suggests that statements of belief about God are not as positive as some would claim unless they use a phrasing typical of core values.