Are Israeli Gaza operations undermining Abbas?

[gdnp]

NPR reported this morning that Abbas has been losing support in the West Bank secondary to his criticism of Hamas at the beginning of the Gaza operations and ongoing suppression of protests against Israeli actions, that have turned into protests against his government:

At the start of Israel's offensive, Abbas said that Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, was at least partly to blame for the conflict because it had provoked Israel with its rocket fire.

Abbas has since toughened his criticism of Israel. But he seems to have misread popular Palestinian sentiment on the war.

While there have been massive demonstrations against Israel's assault on Gaza across the globe, similar protests have been largely suppressed in the occupied West Bank, which is run by Abbas and Fatah.

After a year of failed peace talks, Abbas is hard-pressed to convince Palestinians in the West Bank that moderation pays.

And his legitimacy is in question for another reason: His four-year term as president ended Jan. 9. His aides say legislation gives him another year. Hamas rejects this. Bitter jokes now circulate — one text message calls Abbas a "U.S.-made product" whose date has expired.

If Abbas's popularity continues to erode, I wouldn't expect new elections any time soon. Fatah, Israel, and the US do not wish to risk a repeat the Hamas victories in Gaza.

I suppose no one should be surprised that war strengthens the forces of extremism and weakens the forces of moderation. It would be ironic if Israel's crushing of Hamas in Gaza led to their takeover of the West Bank.

 

[DC]

war strengthens the forces of extremism and weakens the forces of moderation

a sad fact

 

[BPSCG]

I suppose no one should be surprised that war strengthens the forces of extremism and weakens the forces of moderation. It would be ironic if Israel's crushing of Hamas in Gaza led to their takeover of the West Bank.

Is it possible that Abbas is betting that Israel will destroy Hamas's leadership and the remaining Gazans will be ready to sue for peace with Israel?

 

[Doctor Evil]

Abbas popularity may be damaged as a result of the war in Gaza. Though, in my opinion, polls taken now are not a true reflection. I suspect that once the fighting stops and people had time to rethink, some different opinions may surface. I expect that Hamas will take some of the criticism for its policies.

In any case, this is only one of many considerations that the Israeli government should consider when deciding how to reply to rocket attacks from Gaza. One of the most basic duties of a government is ensuring its citizens safety. This is bound to take precedence on other considerations.

One last point. I seem to remember many discussion on this type, namely how Israeli policy affect the Palestinian leadership. On the other hand I do not recall a similar discussion of the way that Palestinian factions affect Israeli politics. The Israeli peace camp is in bad shape, and some of the reasons are related to the fact that various territories which were conceded by Israel were used to stage attacks against Israeli civilians. This has happened in the areas transfered to the PA in the Oslo accords, in Lebanon, and in Gaza.

 

[Ziggurat]

I suppose no one should be surprised that war strengthens the forces of extremism and weakens the forces of moderation.

Sometimes, but quite definitely not always. See: WWII aftermath (Germany, Italy, Japan).

 

[gdnp]

Is it possible that Abbas is betting that Israel will destroy Hamas's leadership and the remaining Gazans will be ready to sue for peace with Israel?

Credible sources claim that when Hamas took over militarily in Gaza it was in response to an impending coup by Fatah: Hamas had won local elections, Fatah as the head of the PA still controlled the security forces, and were preparing to take over and install an emergency government. Hamas routed them before they could. I suspect Abbas, either explicitly or implicitly, expected Israel to do the job for him. Perhaps he expected the Hamas leadership to be killed or driven into exile. It will be interesting to see what government is left in Gaza when Israel leaves.

As such, he may have miscalculated. If the population of Gaza and the West Bank end up rallying around Hamas while they see Fatah as Israeli collaborators, they may be seeing anti-government protests for quite some time, and be forced to take a more anti-Israeli stance to regain credibility with the population. Unless, of course, there is progress in the peace process that gives the population an alternative reason for hope. If Israel were to make some major concession to Abbas, demonstrating that peaceful negotiation has more benefit than maintaining an unacceptable status quo, perhaps Abbas's losses could be reversed.

 

[dudalb]

As usual, Israel has to make all the concessions. Hamas or Abbas have to make no concessions.
That seems to be the standard "Progressive" line..except for out and out advocacy of the destruction of Israel, which seems to be gaining ground among "Progressives".
One of the many reason I am not a "Progressive".

 

[gdnp]

One last point. I seem to remember many discussion on this type, namely how Israeli policy affect the Palestinian leadership. On the other hand I do not recall a similar discussion of the way that Palestinian factions affect Israeli politics. The Israeli peace camp is in bad shape, and some of the reasons are related to the fact that various territories which were conceded by Israel were used to stage attacks against Israeli civilians. This has happened in the areas transfered to the PA in the Oslo accords, in Lebanon, and in Gaza.

Perhaps this is because I begin with the assumption that Israel wants peace, and thus would like to avoid policies that weaken the forces of peace on the other side. I do not give Hamas the same credit: I do not believe they wish to negotiate a peaceful 2-state solution with Israel, they want to drive the Jews out and install an Islamic state. As such, pointing out to them that their actions weaken the Israeli peace movement is irrelevant: they want Jihad, not peace. Israel thus faces the prospect of winning the skirmish but losing the battle, thus making it more difficult to win the war.

 

[a_unique_person]

Sometimes, but quite definitely not always. See: WWII aftermath (Germany, Italy, Japan).

The intent and spirit of those occupation was slightly different.

 

[Ziggurat]

The intent and spirit of those occupation was slightly different.

I understand that (though the war itself was rather an important ingredient too). My point is not to predict any particular result in the current situation, but merely to point out that the blanket statement I responded to was not true in general, and so should not be used as the basis of any serious evaluation of events.

 

[ddt]

As usual, Israel has to make all the concessions. Hamas or Abbas have to make no concessions.
That seems to be the standard "Progressive" line..except for out and out advocacy of the destruction of Israel, which seems to be gaining ground among "Progressives".
One of the many reason I am not a "Progressive".

Let's not forget how Israel undermined Abbas in the first place.

When Abbas succeeded Arafat in 2005, Israel with then-PM Sharon refused to even talk with him. That was still the old and tired "we have no-one to talk to" schtick. Abbas, the moderate, couldn't achieve anything for the Palestinians - let's not forget that even the steps outlined in the Oslo accords haven't been fulfilled, and those were not the endpoint as envisaged by Oslo. At that time, Abbas was pretty much a lame duck.

Then Israel carried out the unilateral disengagement from Gaza. Hamas chalked that up as a victory - they could achieve something, whereas Abbas could not.

In January 2008, the IDF invaded the Gaza strip and battled with Hamas militants. The IDF may have won on numbers killed, but they didn't wipe out Hamas. And then in Spring 2008, Hamas ultimately forced - by keeping up their rocket lobbing - Israel to the ceasefire which Hamas had been proposing for the last two years. The ceasefire didn't work out to the effect Hamas wanted for the Gazans - normal levels of imports - but still they had chalked up two new victories: (1) they had forced Israel to talk with them, and (2) they had even gotten their deal.

In the meantime, the West Bank with the nice and moderate Abbas sees ever more roadblocks and ever more Israeli settlements. What does he have to show his voters? Annapolis was dead even before it began...

So, Israel's policy is really playing into the hands of Hamas. I don't think it's so by design now, but that it's really a case of stupidly trying again and again solutions that didn't work last time either, and of very short-term political gain.

 

[Thunder]

I don't know what Israel can do to undermine Abbas any more then they already have..other then killing him.

The job that Israel is doing now..should have been done by Abbas and Fatah. Israel should have helped them win the Gaza civil war.

 

[gdnp]

I don't know what Israel can do to undermine Abbas any more then they already have..other then killing him.

The job that Israel is doing now..should have been done by Abbas and Fatah. Israel should have helped them win the Gaza civil war.

Any help Israel gives Abbas must be either covert or in the form of specific improvements for the Palestinian population. As the NPR source points out, Abbas is already seen by some as an Israeli puppet. If they lent him overt military support, he would lose all credibility with the Palestinian population.

IMHO Israel's mistake was in crushing Fatah's security apparatus when Arafat was cut off in Ramallah. This led to the vacuum that allowed Hamas to take root. Once again, it appears that they hoped that military action would lead to a more conciliatory Palestinian leadership, only to find just the opposite.

 

[Thunder]

It would be nice if Israel would take down the checkpoints and blockades in the West Bank right now!!

that would show the stark comparison between gaza and the west bank. show the world that israel does not seek to destroy the Palestinian people.

 

[webfusion]

Abbas who?

He is not even acknowledged as the President of the Palestinian Authority anymore by many Palestinians. His 4-year term ended last week. Abbas was elected to a four-year term in January 2005.

If the old man had a lick of sense, he would just walk away, and let the chips fall where they may once he leaves the Muqata'a.

 

[gdnp]

It would be nice if Israel would take down the checkpoints and blockades in the West Bank right now!!

that would show the stark comparison between gaza and the west bank. show the world that israel does not seek to destroy the Palestinian people.

As nice as this would be, all it would take would be a couple of suicide bombers (I'm sure that after the past 2 weeks Hamas would not have trouble finding a few volunteers) and after the subsequent escallation Israel would be fighting on 2 fronts.

Abbas, right now, is more interested in eliminating Hamas as a political rival than challenging Israel.

 

[webfusion]

It would be nice if Israel would take down the checkpoints and blockades in the West Bank right now!!

What??? Those checkpoints and patrols by the IDF are keeping things quiet. They are extremely effective, and preventing who-knows how many attacks!!!

That would show the stark comparison between gaza and the west bank. show the world that israel does not seek to destroy the Palestinian people.

Uh, "the world" is claiming that Israel is seeking to destroy the Palestinian people?
Nice strawman there, parky76.

ETA = Well. just as I posted this, I noticed an article from the Iranian-backed PRESS-TV which reports that while "the world" is not claiming that Israel is seeking to destroy the Palestinian people, indeed Abu Mazen (abbas) is himself making the claim:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=82083&sectionid=351020202
""Israel is keeping up this aggression in order to wipe out our people over there," he said.

Hyperbole? Nah.
After all, it's genocide in Gaza.

 

[Doctor Evil]

Perhaps this is because I begin with the assumption that Israel wants peace, and thus would like to avoid policies that weaken the forces of peace on the other side. I do not give Hamas the same credit: I do not believe they wish to negotiate a peaceful 2-state solution with Israel, they want to drive the Jews out and install an Islamic state. As such, pointing out to them that their actions weaken the Israeli peace movement is irrelevant: they want Jihad, not peace. Israel thus faces the prospect of winning the skirmish but losing the battle, thus making it more difficult to win the war.

I would agree with most of the comment. However, this is not the whole story. What is missing is the fact that Israeli parties also compete with each other. The relevant part of our discussion is the competition between parties which favor negotiations and parties which do not believe that peace is attainable.

Lets imagine a scenario where the current government have decided, say one year ago, that they will not respond to attacks from Gaza no matter what. Instead they will try to give many concessions to Abbas and strengthen him. Then Hamas starts to shoot rockets, and the attacks intensify when the elections are close. In such a scenario the right wing is likely to win the elections, and all the concessions made to Abbas are wasted.

What I am saying is that Israeli policy makers need to consider their political positions, and not only Abbas'.

BTW, here is a related article:

I belong to a generation of Israelis who grew up believing in peace. At the end of the Six-Day War of 1967, I was 23, and I had no doubt that 40 years later, the Israeli-Arab war would be over. Today, my son, who is 28, no longer believes in peace. Most Israelis don't. They know that Israel may not survive without peace, but from war to war, they have lost their optimism. So have I.

 

[a_unique_person]

What??? Those checkpoints and patrols by the IDF are keeping things quiet. They are extremely effective, and preventing who-knows how many attacks!!!

According to Haaretz, a lot of them serve no practical purpose at all. Many of them were supposed to be removed, but months later, are still there.

 

[a_unique_person]

I would agree with most of the comment. However, this is not the whole story. What is missing is the fact that Israeli parties also compete with each other. The relevant part of our discussion is the competition between parties which favor negotiations and parties which do not believe that peace is attainable.

Lets imagine a scenario where the current government have decided, say one year ago, that they will not respond to attacks from Gaza no matter what. Instead they will try to give many concessions to Abbas and strengthen him. Then Hamas starts to shoot rockets, and the attacks intensify when the elections are close. In such a scenario the right wing is likely to win the elections, and all the concessions made to Abbas are wasted.

What I am saying is that Israeli policy makers need to consider their political positions, and not only Abbas'.

On rereading why Camp David failed, one of Barak's primary considerations was how to keep the right wing on side. For every point he had to consider negotiating with the Palestinians, he had to negotiate with the other political factions. I dare say that's a consideration for the Palestinian leader, whoever he his. What it means is, effectively, all negotiations are between the extremists, who are still not inclined to make a real peace, as current events are showing. Everyone else has to wait for them to decide they have had enough.