One working solution has been offered so far. rwguinn has hinted that he may have another involving "2 of 3" primary instruments and a method to keep wings level. tumbleweed appears to be working on one that involves principles unknown.
I will address the one currently on the table that is demonstrably usable:
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Imagine a bubbler in the bottom of a canal. It sends up a continuous stream of small bubbles -- continuous enough to casually appear to be one stream of air. To an observer viewing the canal and bubbles through a clear port in the canal wall, the bubbles rise at an angle as they drift downcurrent. One thing to remember however is that at any particular level in the stream, the bubbles are moving *with* the current at the same speed as the current.
The above is the idealized thermal model used in the OP problem.
The key to the pilot's ability to gain usable information regarding wind direction lies in the difference in *vertical velocities" between the aircraft and thermal. All three objects (aircraft, thermal, airmass) have the same horizontal velocities but each differs in the vertical.
As the pilot makes perfect circles in the thermal they are moving *up* relative to the airmass, but *down* relative to the thermal. One can easily see that it's impossible to hold perfect circles while descending through a tilting column and remained centered. Each circle (or thereabouts) one must correct to the upwind side to remain centered in the column. If one does not do this, you fall out the low side (downwind side) of the tilting column more and more with each circle.
The change in climb rate at different points of the circle is generally noticable enough to experienced pilots that there isn't even a need for a vario to recognize it -- you feel it in the seat of your pants.
If to stay centered in the lift, you have to repeatedly 'unbank' and lengthen one side of the circle, it's the point you're aiming at when the bank angle is the least where the wind is coming from.
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Rhen was the first to allude to the answer, and I believe he understands it enough to be able to use is productively. The wording of his answer however contained a flaw that kept me from unconditionally accepting it:
rhen:
Since the thermals are generated from a fixed position on the ground, they will appear to the pilot that the are moving north( in relation to the air mass ).
Since the thermals drift *with* the wind, they don't move relative to the airmass (in the idealized model at least) and thus cannot "appear" to *anyone* to be moving relative to the airmass. In the working solution, they *do* appear to the pilot to be moving relative to the pilot/aircraft and thus he/she must go chase it back upwind.
Rhen, in #14 does get credit for being the first to show up with a working solution if not perfectly explained.
Clive in #24 got us to the 80% mark with his "tilting" visual. Right on Clive.
in #15, RossFW takes issue with Clive:
Yes, but the glider is also part of the airmass. It will equally drift with the wind. The only way to tell which way the thermal is "Leaning" is by comparing the gliders position over the ground with its altitude as it encounters lift, and this is not allowed by the OP.
I will point out to RossFW that since the thermals vertical velocity is different that that of the airmass, one does not need to compare to anything on the ground to tell if the thermal is tilting -- simply make perfect circles and if you remain perfectly centered, the thermal isn't tilting. If you must make consistent corrections in one direction, there's your clue.
In #28 Clive also responds to RossFW with a perfectly good explanation.
In #30, rhen comes back with an addition to his original post demonstrating whan I figured all along -- he gets it.
In #31, fredriks essentially said that rhen was right originally and was surprised that I didn't accept his answer. Fredricks, notice that in my response I didn't say rhen was wrong in principle, but rather *asked a question* of rhen trying to draw out a better explanation from him.
I'm calling this for rhen AND Clive -- nice work guys.
Just as an interesting aside, are you a pilot of any sort Clive?
JB