The Physical Evidence of Earth’s Unstoppable 1,500-Year Climate Cycle
Publiched by the NCPA :
"The National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy research organization, established in
1983. The NCPA's goal is to develop and promote private alternatives to government regulation and control, solving problems by relying on
the strength of the competitive, entrepreneurial private sector. Topics include reforms in health care, taxes, Social Security, welfare,
criminal justice, education and environmental regulation."
Which is where Singer comes in. AGW is the big beast of regulation, and so for Singer (who is a believer in small if any government)
cannot be true.
It's presented a scientific paper, but just look at this crap :
"A striking example of the effect of this 1,500-year climate cycle can be seen in the temperature-sensitive history of wine-growing
in England."
Wine-production in Britain (it's grapes that grow, not wine; wine is produced from grapes) is not temperature sensitive. It declined after
the Norman Conquest because the Normans had a taste for red wine, which they were already producing commercially in France, and it
became a hobby after the Dissolution of the Monasteries by Henry VIII. British wine-production never died out. There just wasn't a
serious demand for it until recently, and although there are hundreds of British vinyards now it's still a niche-market.
"The Romans grew wine grapes in England when they occupied it from the first through the fourth centuries. Aerial photography,
remote sensing and large-scale excavation have recently revealed seven Roman-era vineyards in south central England. One site contains
nearly four miles of bedding trenches that could have supported some 4,000 grapevines."
Sounds impressive, but what does it mean? 4000 grapevines don't take up many hectares, but what we get is "four miles of bedding
trenches". How big a field would that be?
The Romans introduced wine-production in their north-western borderlands because there was a serious demand for it from the legions.
Two pints a day per man, more or less.
Earth Cools In Persistent, 1,500-Year Rhythm, Say Columbia Scientists, Working From Sea Cores
"Earth's climate cools significantly and abruptly every 1,500 years or so in a persistent, regular rhythm, a team led by scientists
at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory reports in the Nov. 14 issue of the journal Science."
Doesn't say anything about the current warming, does it? If you're hoping for a sudden onset of rapid cooling
"The finding of abrupt climate shifts in the modern era adds an important new factor in predicting future global climate change,
he said. And it throws new light on historical events, such as the Little Ice Age, a cold spell that gripped the world in the 17th and 18th
centuries and might prove to be the most recent manifestation of the phenomenon."
you've a while to wait. 1500 years from, say, 1200CE as the last occurrence would be around 2700CE.
Widespread evidence of 1500 yr climate variability in North America during the past 14 000 yr
"There is debate concerning the spatial extent and magnitude of the recently identified 1500 yr climate oscillation. Existing
evidence is largely restricted to the North Atlantic and adjacent landmasses. The spatial extent, magnitude, and effects of these climate
variations within the terrestrial environment during the Holocene have not been established. We show that millennial-scale climate
variability caused changes in vegetation communities across all of North America with a periodicity of 1650 ± 500 yr during the past 14
000 calendar years (cal yr). Times of major transitions identified in pollen records occurred at 600, 1650, 2850, 4030, 6700, 8100, 10
190, 12 900, and 13 800 cal yr B.P., consistent with ice and marine records. We suggest that North Atlantic millennial-scale climate
variability is associated with rearrangements of the atmospheric circulation with far-reaching influences on the climate."
I think you may have found the source of "+/- 500 years".
The last major transition is given as 600 years ago, about 1408, which presumably coincides with the advent of the LIA. Even at the
shortest cycle rate (1000 years) that means we have another 400 years to wait.
Yet predicting global warming while it is occurring is a monumental feat? Hmm, was Singer around 12,000+ years ago?
What happened was that the AGW signal was identified from the noise several decades ago, and further global warming was predicted.
Singer predicted that it wouldn't happen. When it did happen Singer concentrated on claiming that it wasn't, until he was forced to accept
it by events. Only then did he start casting about for alternative explanations.
And he's still firing blanks. Which is why the movers and shakers of the world don't pay him no never-mind.
