Anthopogenic Global Warming Myth or Real ?

woodfortrees actually looks to be genuine and very useful, especially for those of us fed up with downloading the latest version of the right dataset, opening it in a spreadsheet app, and producing graphs, just to check that someone isn't "lying". See my previous post about trend lines.

I believe that it is actually genuine, and useful.

I can make neat graphs like this:



 
Umm, yes, but there is the possibility of the "Pole" being ice-free even if the whole Arctic is not, and we still need to define "for how long?". 1 day, 1 week, 1... you get the picture?

"How long" doesn't enter into it. If I make the point (that's an attempted craps reference) I win. The point being zero on the NSIDC graph.

In practice it won't hit zero for one (24-hour) day right at the end of the melt-season. That's far too unlikely. There'll be at least a couple of weeks of zero, probably during September.
 
That will come back to haunt you. The trick is to take it on the chin when it happens. That way you can be wrong but still retain respect (which is the only currency that truly matters).

I have a history here on JREF of fessing up to my mistakes.

I'll play it straight, if I need too!

:D
 
"How long" doesn't enter into it. If I make the point (that's an attempted craps reference) I win. The point being zero on the NSIDC graph.

In practice it won't hit zero for one (24-hour) day right at the end of the melt-season. That's far too unlikely. There'll be at least a couple of weeks of zero, probably during September.
And you assume that some people won't quibble? :eek:
 
Some ice cubes fell off a cruise ship so the artic isn’t ice free after all, proving global warming is a hoax!!!. :eek:

There'll still be icebergs sliding off Greenland. The faster they slide off, the less ice-free the Arctic Ocean is, ergo ...

More difficult to predict is when mhaze and David Rodale will stop claiming that what's happening in the Arctic is perfectly normal, happens all the time, nothing to see here that Amundsen didn't see before. Will it be before an ice-free Arctic Ocean, or after?

Impossible to predict is what they'll claim we ought to be looking at instead. I can't see the tropical tropospheric "hotspot" lasting that long, and Global Warming on Mars has already fallen to incoming data. The eagerly awaited new Dalton Minimum probably won't happen, and is supposed to cool things drastically anyway.

If pressed to make a forecast, I reckon they'll be fixating on bristlecone pines. A goodly part of their creative science arm will be dead (a tragic actuarial inevitability), and what's left will be increasingly freaky.
 
More difficult to predict is when mhaze and David Rodale will stop claiming that what's happening in the Arctic is perfectly normal, happens all the time, nothing to see here that Amundsen didn't see before. Will it be before an ice-free Arctic Ocean, or after?

They will go directly from claiming warming isn’t happening/humans aren’t causing it to claiming it’s too far advanced to stop so we shouldn’t try to do anything about it.
 
They will go directly from claiming warming isn’t happening/humans aren’t causing it to claiming it’s too far advanced to stop so we shouldn’t try to do anything about it.
Wrong!

Some of them have already been doing that, the ones who say that it's not happening and if it is, it's not caused by CO2 and even if it is caused by CO2 it's not our CO2, and anyway more CO2 is good for plants and what's wrong with growing grapes in Greenland anyway? You ecofascists make me sick with your life-hating, planet-hating, views, you know? ;)
 
They will go directly from claiming warming isn’t happening/humans aren’t causing it to claiming it’s too far advanced to stop so we shouldn’t try to do anything about it.

Plus "nobody could have foreseen it" and/or "if the scientists had been more honest something would have been done". Whatever, it'll be time to let the free-market solve the problems (which, with sufficient taxpayer subsidies, it will do in no time, just you watch).

You have to laugh or you'd cry.
 
Having heard all the various arguments from the anti-(A)GW mob over the years and how they've evolved (or haven't in some cases - I was genuinely surprised to find some people are still flogging UHI), it seems now all they're interested in doing is proving the 'warmers' wrong. Exactly what we're being proved wrong on clearly isn't important, so when one argument doesn't hold up, everyone moves onto something else. Like you say, the tropical hotspots was supposed to be this killer blow to AGW but now it's been addressed, in a year or so's time everyone will have forgotten about it.

An analogy is when the 'truthers' make a big argument about how the government understated the air quality risks on 9/11. All they're concerned about is proving the government lied about something to do with the events of that day, just so they can turn around and say "We were right! The government can't be trusted!"
 
Having heard all the various arguments from the anti-(A)GW mob over the years and how they've evolved (or haven't in some cases - I was genuinely surprised to find some people are still flogging UHI), it seems now all they're interested in doing is proving the 'warmers' wrong. Exactly what we're being proved wrong on clearly isn't important, so when one argument doesn't hold up, everyone moves onto something else. Like you say, the tropical hotspots was supposed to be this killer blow to AGW but now it's been addressed, in a year or so's time everyone will have forgotten about it.

You'll recall that an earlier killer blow involved all of the mid-troposphere, not just the tropics, but when the systemic errors in the satellite data were identified it went quiet until a residual tropical tropospheric anomaly was "detected". By the same crowd of usual suspects, with the same claque cheering them on.

The deathknell of AGW has sounded far too often to be taken seriously anymore.

An analogy is when the 'truthers' make a big argument about how the government understated the air quality risks on 9/11. All they're concerned about is proving the government lied about something to do with the events of that day, just so they can turn around and say "We were right! The government can't be trusted!"

Not an anology I'd have chosen. That's a good analogy for, say, Ken Starr's Whitewater investigation of Bill Clinton, which came down to Clinton lying about a hand-job in the Oval Office (ergo, he lied about everything else). But there are some similarities, particularly in the way that a failing argument depends on an ever-tightening focus on minutiae.

There's a parallel often displayed on the battlefield, when a losing general insulates himself from the big disastrous picture by micro-managing a battery or regiment they've convinced themselves is critical. Everything's falling apart around them, but they don't want to hear about it. They are in a mental state where such information is simply unacceptable.

Piggy has described it as the drinking-straw view of a picture. Details focussed on here and there, but heaven forbid they look at the whole picture because they are, at heart, terrified by what they might see.
 
Having heard all the various arguments from the anti-(A)GW mob over the years and how they've evolved (or haven't in some cases - I was genuinely surprised to find some people are still flogging UHI), it seems now all they're interested in doing is proving the 'warmers' wrong. Exactly what we're being proved wrong on clearly isn't important, so when one argument doesn't hold up, everyone moves onto something else. Like you say, the tropical hotspots was supposed to be this killer blow to AGW but now it's been addressed, in a year or so's time everyone will have forgotten about it.

An analogy is when the 'truthers' make a big argument about how the government understated the air quality risks on 9/11. All they're concerned about is proving the government lied about something to do with the events of that day, just so they can turn around and say "We were right! The government can't be trusted!"

All you need to do is provide evidence supporting your POV. Very simple. If observational evidence is contrary to your hypothesis, what other conclusion is there other than the hypothesis fails?

the tropical hotspots was supposed to be this killer blow to AGW but now it's been addressed
More psychobabble. There are multiple examples in the literature stating the tropical troposphere should be warming at a faster rate than the surface. This is common knowledge. None of you have yet to cite your sources for claiming otherwise. Forgetting about it doesn't change these inconvenient facts.

You still have not come to grips with global warming's missing heat. Explain it, that's all you need to do.

On UHI, the evidence is overwhelming. Two of the latest:
Detecting urbanization effects on surface and subsurface thermal environment — A case study of Osaka

Heat Waves in Southern California:
Are They Becoming More Frequent and Longer Lasting?


There are many, many more.

They support Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic
surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data
which warmers in this forum ridiculed.

Capeldodger referring to accomplished scientists as "whores" does not take away from their scientific work; it only illustrates his shallowness and inability provide evidence supporting his ludicrous assertions.

As the earth continues to cool and IPCC "projections" are further falsified, what excuses will you come up with? How many years can AGW be masked by natural interference, a recent invention to divert attention from climate model failures.
 
You'll recall that an earlier killer blow involved all of the mid-troposphere, not just the tropics, but when the systemic errors in the satellite data were identified it went quiet until a residual tropical tropospheric anomaly was "detected". By the same crowd of usual suspects, with the same claque cheering them on.

The deathknell of AGW has sounded far too often to be taken seriously anymore.



Not an anology I'd have chosen. That's a good analogy for, say, Ken Starr's Whitewater investigation of Bill Clinton, which came down to Clinton lying about a hand-job in the Oval Office (ergo, he lied about everything else). But there are some similarities, particularly in the way that a failing argument depends on an ever-tightening focus on minutiae.

There's a parallel often displayed on the battlefield, when a losing general insulates himself from the big disastrous picture by micro-managing a battery or regiment they've convinced themselves is critical. Everything's falling apart around them, but they don't want to hear about it. They are in a mental state where such information is simply unacceptable.

Piggy has described it as the drinking-straw view of a picture. Details focussed on here and there, but heaven forbid they look at the whole picture because they are, at heart, terrified by what they might see.
Still no direct evidence that rising CO2 levels result in a net increase in global temperature or ocean heat content? Rather, you go off on tangents and give meaningless lectures.

You don't even have an argument.
 

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