And the GOP is... shrinking... a LOT

[MattusMaximus]

Wow, the GOP is in worse shape than I previously thought...

The Republican Shrinkage Problem

The new Washington Post/ABC news poll has all sorts of intriguing numbers in it but when you are looking for clues as to where the two parties stand politically there is only one number to remember: 21.

That's the percent of people in the Post/ABC survey who identified themselves as Republicans, down from 25 percent in a late March poll and at the lowest ebb in this poll since the fall of 1983(!).

In that same poll, 35 percent self-identified as Democrats and 38 percent called them Independents.

These numbers come on the heels of Steve Schmidt, former campaign manager for Arizona Sen. John McCain's presidential bid, declaring the Republican party a "shrinking entity" last week -- citing the decline of GOP numbers in the west, northeast and mountain west as evidence.

And they show a somewhat significant decline from even last November's election when exit polls showed 32 percent of voters identifying as Republican as compared to 39 percent for Democrats and 29 percent for independents and others. (A caveat: voters tend to see things through a more partisan lens after having just voted in a presidential election than they do in an April poll.)

The Post poll numbers show the challenge for Republicans in stark terms.

The number of people who see themselves as GOPers is on the decline even as those who remain within the party grow more and more conservative. ...

Bottom Line: The GOP is shrinking, with more and more moderates heading for the exits. This explains the nutty behavior of the party of late, because what is left in the Republican ranks is more and more the hardcore rightwing nutters who are providing the rest of us with a great deal of entertainment.

Hat tip to Piggy for mentioning this to me.

 

[David Wong]

That's like four months old, isn't it?

 

[Brainster]

In more recent news, voters trust Republicans more than Democrats:

Voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on eight out of 10 key electoral issues, including, for the second straight month, the top issue of the economy. They've also narrowed the gap on the remaining two issues, the traditionally Democratic strong suits of health care and education.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that voters trust the GOP more on economic issues 46% to 41%, showing little change from the six-point lead the party held last month. This is just the second time in over two years of polling the GOP has held the advantage on economic issues. The parties were close on the issue in May, with the Democrats holding a one-point lead.

Voters not affiliated with either party trust Republicans more to handle the economy by a 46% to 32% margin.

 

[Skeptic]

Wait a minute -- ten years ago or so, wasn't the Democratic party down and out, with nobody but nutty left-wing communists left, confidence collapsing, etc., etc,. etc.?

Only a year ago, wasn't the global economic crisis going to lead to the final defeat of capitalism, as things were getting worse and worse and no end in sight, while more and more people turning to socialism or communism?

Perhaps the GOP is collapsing, for all I know, but such polls and predictions are notoriously unreliable, since they -- or, more accurately, the analysis that comes with them -- is usually not much more than statistical noise used as a prop for wishful (or frightened) thinking.

 

[Puppycow]

Gallup tracks this too

Most recent number is 26% for republicans and it seems to fluctuate a fair amount. Any one poll might be off by several percentage points due to random sampling fluctuations.

However, compared to 2004 when republicans averaged in the mid-30s, they now seem to mostly poll in the mid-to-upper 20s, which is a pretty big swing.

 

[David Wong]

Right I mean the numbers are still low but I was sure they had picked up 5-6 points with the lingering bad economy and the health care screaming match.

Obama is still in comfortable approval ratings territory and the public still overwhelmingly supports some kind of health care reform, but the GOP has gained ground in recent months.

 

[shecky]

FWIW, I thought this graph was amusing.

I don't know about the GOP shrinking. But the long term trend lines look less than optimistic, particularly as long as the GOP remains the party of Palin/Limbaugh. If the Republicans had any brains at all, they'd shut the hell up and let the Dems hang themselves, the way the party in power always does. Unfortunately for them, they seem determined to self marginalize with increasingly shrill and unhinged ideas and leaders.

 

[MattusMaximus]

That's like four months old, isn't it?

Yes, but it does seem to jibe with the link to Gallup that someone else posted. Do you have more up-to-date info on this?

 

[hgc]

What they lack in quantity, they make up for in quality.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=17143http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=17143http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=17143http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=17143http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=17143http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=16974