Merged All things Trump + Russia

[trustbutverify]

Seemingly quite a lot....

Approvals rating among Republicans is still over 80% and is now marginally higher among Republicans than it was when it took a dip a couple of months ago.

Frankly, I'm surprised it's not higher.

 

[Civet]

Seemingly quite a lot....

Approvals rating among Republicans is still over 80% and is now marginally higher among Republicans than it was when it took a dip a couple of months ago.

I think the lowest GWB ever went with Republicans was a little under 60%, so there's still a decent number of Republicans who must like Trump for reasons other than blind party loyalty. Interestingly, his approval rating among young Republicans is apparently low. I think that's a good sign.

 

[quadraginta]

I wonder what will happen when the Mexican wall will NOT be built, at least with Mexico money. What will he tell to the public?

Any lies that he feels like. The first things that cross whatever he uses as a substitute for a mind.

When has he ever done anything else?

 

[Ambrosia]

You realize you're just posting crap from liberal rags?

Do you have a list of media that you consider unbiased and credible?

 

[Aridas]

I wonder what will happen when the Mexican wall will NOT be built, at least with Mexico money. What will he tell to the public?

When? After someone else becomes President? He's got plenty of time left now, after all, short of being the first President to actually get removed from office. All he needs to do is mention it once in a while and/or pop something relevant into his proposed budgets, regardless of how likely it'd be to pass, and he's off the hook. As for what he'll tell the public? It's the Democrats' fault. Maybe some of the Republicans if they're being troublesome.

 

[The Don]

I wonder what will happen when the Mexican wall will NOT be built, at least with Mexico money. What will he tell to the public?

He will claim that Washington insiders (a.k.a. swamp-dwellers) have been obstructionist at every turn. Already Democrats and Republicans in name only (RINOs) have passed a spending bill which didn't contain the seed money to allow him to get the wall building started.

If the wall gets built and the Mexicans refuse to pay then Trump will say one or more of the following

- The Mexicans have paid for the wall
- The Mexicans will pay for the wall
- Blame the Mexicans for not paying for the wall

Any progress towards the wall being built or Mexico paying for it will be blown out of all proportion and any failures or shortfall against promises will be blamed on other people - especially Hillary and Obama - and his supporters will believe him.

 

[Ambrosia]

I wonder what will happen when the Mexican wall will NOT be built, at least with Mexico money. What will he tell to the public?

He won't stay in office long enough to lay so much as a single brick. The Flynn Russia investigation will gather more momentum in the next few weeks and there will be calls for his impeachment from both sides for his attempted obstruction of it. It'll be his undoing and I'll be very surprised if in the interim any "normal" (i.e. taxcuts for him and his rich buddies) business can be concluded.

The Russia investigation is a growing fire that's consuming all of the available oxygen in the room.

 

[Antonio Coceri]

Any lies that he feels like. The first things that cross whatever he uses as a substitute for a mind.

When has he ever done anything else?

Whatever..
This will not change the point that he will still be President whatever happens

 

[Antonio Coceri]

He won't stay in office long enough to lay so much as a single brick. The Flynn Russia investigation will gather more momentum in the next few weeks and there will be calls for his impeachment from both sides for his attempted obstruction of it. It'll be his undoing and I'll be very surprised if in the interim any "normal" (i.e. taxcuts for him and his rich buddies) business can be concluded.

The Russia investigation is a growing fire that's consuming all of the available oxygen in the room.

Considering the forecasting power people here had regarding the Assange thing and the Trump elections I would suspect Trump will be in ower until 2024

 

[McHrozni]

Let's see how much more Trump supporters can take before they finally throw in the towel.

I check 538 daily for this, Nate Silver really knows his job.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

I think we've now reached a point where only the base is left to nibble at. Progress will be slow from now on and drops minimal. It may even stop altogether somewhere around 30% or so, maybe lower. But every percentage point right now is a significant blow, because it comes from an already depleted and disenchanted electorate.

Gerrymandering is a double edged sword. It could be that the approach that gave Republicans over-representation will now result in them getting notably less seats that they would obtain in a proportional system.

McHrozni

 

[Antonio Coceri]

I check 538 daily for this, Nate Silver really knows his job.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

I think we've now reached a point where only the base is left to nibble at. Progress will be slow from now on and drops minimal. It may even stop altogether somewhere around 30% or so, maybe lower. But every percentage point right now is a significant blow, because it comes from an already depleted and disenchanted electorate.

Gerrymandering is a double edged sword. It could be that the approach that gave Republicans over-representation will now result in them getting notably less seats that they would obtain in a proportional system.

McHrozni

538?
The site which was giving Trump as almost surely probably losing at the elections?

 

[Belz...]

538?
The site which was giving Trump as almost surely losing at the elections?

Didn't that site give him 30%? That's not "surely losing", that's "probably losing", and those are very different things, though most people, I have to say, do not understand numbers.

 

[Antonio Coceri]

Didn't that site give him 30%? That's not "surely losing", that's "probably losing", and those are very different things, though most people, I have to say, do not understand numbers.

28.6%
Which is much less than 50%
Trump won
They were wrong

 

[Tolls]

That is an incredibly naive reading of what 538 was saying.
The route Trump took to win was the route they said would be needed, which was the 30%.

 

[TofuFighter]

Whatever..
This will not change the point that he will still be President whatever happens

Quite a brave prediction.

 

[Belz...]

28.6%
Which is much less than 50%
Trump won
They were wrong

Called it. I told you in the post you just quoted that people don't understand numbers, and you're part of that group if you think that 30% meant he couldn't win. Seriously, is it that difficult to understand statistics and probabilities?

If they had said 0%, you'd be right. If they had said 5%, then you could say that perhaps they didn't see all the variables. But at 30% they gave Trump a pretty good chance of winning, and he won. They weren't wrong.

To give you an analogy, if you roll a die, and I say that number 1 has 1/6 chances of turning up, and the die ends up a 1, was I wrong?

 

[Dragon]

28.6%
Which is much less than 50%
Trump won
They were wrong

No, they weren't. Just as rolling a 6 doesn't make it wrong to say that you have a 16.7% chance of doing so.
And, as Tolls says, 538 accurately predicted Trump's possible path to victory.

eta - ninja'd. My fault for being distracted when posting.

 

[Childlike Empress]

 

[Firestone]

Add probabilities to the things nobody knew could be so complicated.

 

[Antonio Coceri]

No, they weren't. Just as rolling a 6 doesn't make it wrong to say that you have a 16.7% chance of doing so.
And, as Tolls says, 538 accurately predicted Trump's possible path to victory.

eta - ninja'd. My fault for being distracted when posting.

Then even saying that Trump had 0.1% chances of getting elected would have made then not-wrong

Good for you