DGM
Skeptic not Atheist
You're a funny guy. You talk about debate but refuse to engage in it. All you have ever done is make a statement then expect people to prove it wrong.
"debate" you? You don't even know the meaning of the word.
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AIA 2016 Meeting Vote - How Will It Turn Out?
- Thread starter DaveThomasNMSR
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- ae911truth
"debate" you? You don't even know the meaning of the word.
Redwood
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Last year's resolution was worded without any overt conspiracism. In principle, a person could have voted for it without believing in any Trutherism, merely desiring a new engineering report.
The new one is 100 proof conspiracy crazy. It practically accuses FDNY of being part of the plot. I doubt it'll get 1% of the vote.
The new one is 100 proof conspiracy crazy. It practically accuses FDNY of being part of the plot. I doubt it'll get 1% of the vote.
jaydeehess
Penultimate Amazing
Do you want to say anything about your choice of the size of the logo versus that which AE911T chose in the poster Dave shows?
DGM
Skeptic not Atheist
I noticed this too. I wonder if they will also do the same in their booth. They were always careful to hide their true colors. In fact I don't think they mentioned CD at all at their booth.
I copied and pasted from Facebook. I did nothing to edit it.
ProBonoShill
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Architects are far from the most informed group about building collapses. We also only need a passable knowledge of what holds a building up, believe it or not. Enough to have sensible conversations with the structural engineers who actually design the structure. Architects involved with the design of multi-storey buildings will set out the floors, the lift and stair wells, and the toilet areas, send the drawings to the engineers and ask for column sizes and locations, and a design (ie thickness of walls) for the stair, services & lift cores. When we get the engineer's design back we call them in and tell them to make it all smaller and further apart, which they try to do a little bit.
So consider an architect vote on the collapse of a building to be no more than expressing a very well-informed layman's viewpoint. The people who count in this regard (and why they would be voting on such a thing is beyond me), are structural engineers. Structural engineers, note. Not civil engineers, mechanical engineers, services engineers, and all such assorted engineers who no doubt pad-out FF's list of thousands who back his nut-job conspiracy.........structural engineers only. There is a specialist sub-set of structural engineers involved in reverse engineering building collapses, and in advising demolition contractors. Their opinions are the ones which should be given some weight.
So, a direct question for Fallacy Flag: How many of your list of 2500 are structural engineers? How many are specialist demolitions structural engineers? Where can we find the list of names so that qualifications and membership of professional bodies can be assessed?
So consider an architect vote on the collapse of a building to be no more than expressing a very well-informed layman's viewpoint. The people who count in this regard (and why they would be voting on such a thing is beyond me), are structural engineers. Structural engineers, note. Not civil engineers, mechanical engineers, services engineers, and all such assorted engineers who no doubt pad-out FF's list of thousands who back his nut-job conspiracy.........structural engineers only. There is a specialist sub-set of structural engineers involved in reverse engineering building collapses, and in advising demolition contractors. Their opinions are the ones which should be given some weight.
So, a direct question for Fallacy Flag: How many of your list of 2500 are structural engineers? How many are specialist demolitions structural engineers? Where can we find the list of names so that qualifications and membership of professional bodies can be assessed?
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Ape of Good Hope
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I doubt FF wants to 'go there', so here's a thread on the AE signatories from 2014:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=274881
From post 22 onwards there's an exchange between various forum members that sums up the misleading nature of AE911Truth's list of professional signatories. Particularly pertinent post here from JSanderO.
And here's a post from Oystein, from the venerable AE911 Petition thread, with his downloadable list of AE911Truth membership data:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=11060925&postcount=847
Not only that... high rises is a specialty that many structural engineers don't get involved with. The money point here is that architects have SOME training in statics, strength of materials and so forth... and are legally allowed to design structures. Few do and those that do.. do so for small buildings of a few stories at most. So architects a definitely a notch or two above lay persons including biologists and sanitary engineers when it comes to matters of structure. There is no such field as forensic architecture.
You don't need an expert, but you do need someone who is informed about the event and the relevant issues.
DaveThomasNMSR
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Poisson Distribution Results
Based on the tally as of today (0-4%: 28 votes, 5-9%:5 votes), I made a fit using the Poisson Distribution:
The mean, μ, was obtained as the weighted averages of the vote tallies (28,5,0,...)and their respective midpoints (2 is midway between 0 and 4, 7 falls midway between 5 and 9, and so on).
Summing the Poisson probabilities for k=0 through k=4 yields 85.42%, pretty close to the vote tally of 28 (84.85%). Likewise, for 5-9, sum of the Poisson probabilities was 14.52%, versus the tally of 5 (15.15%).
Bottom line: it's not looking very good for Gage!
Based on the tally as of today (0-4%: 28 votes, 5-9%:5 votes), I made a fit using the Poisson Distribution:
The mean, μ, was obtained as the weighted averages of the vote tallies (28,5,0,...)and their respective midpoints (2 is midway between 0 and 4, 7 falls midway between 5 and 9, and so on).
Summing the Poisson probabilities for k=0 through k=4 yields 85.42%, pretty close to the vote tally of 28 (84.85%). Likewise, for 5-9, sum of the Poisson probabilities was 14.52%, versus the tally of 5 (15.15%).
Bottom line: it's not looking very good for Gage!
Dave Rogers
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through
To be fair, this is no more than a perfect example of the Emperor of China fallacy...
Dave
Dave
dropzone
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So it is conceivable that the number could go below zero, perhaps by recantations of last time's vote?
Fixed it for you.
No, I love architects. They can be artists working in the real world, producing objects both beautiful and functional. HOWEVER, others need engineers to clean up messes caused by their conviction that two objects can occupy the same space. Or when they forget the function in their reach for beauty. Case in point is the TRUMP tower in Chicago. Utterly gorgeous, but the floorplans for individual apartments are small and awkwardly shaped. Which is why I hate architects.
So it is conceivable that the number could go below zero, perhaps by recantations of last time's vote?
Fixed it for you.
No, I love architects. They can be artists working in the real world, producing objects both beautiful and functional. HOWEVER, others need engineers to clean up messes caused by their conviction that two objects can occupy the same space. Or when they forget the function in their reach for beauty. Case in point is the TRUMP tower in Chicago. Utterly gorgeous, but the floorplans for individual apartments are small and awkwardly shaped. Which is why I hate architects.
You hate architects because a developer is driving the floor plan size to maximize ROI?
What's that, please? (Tried searching but no luck.)
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Really? I had no trouble finding an explanation when searching for 'emperor of china fallacy'. http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Number=9539800
Maurice Ledifficile
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dropzone
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I'm happy to blame that particular developer for most of the troubles of the world, but he doesn't seem to be a hands-on manager. I assume he never saw a floorplan, just beautiful 3D renderings. He sold his own apartment before it was finished, I assume because he went there, looked around, and said, "This isn't as big as I expected. I wanted YUUUUUUGE!"
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Yes!
I tried "emperor of china" + fallacy and + "logical fallacy" and only got unrelated articles. Thanks.
WilliamSeger
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But it does tell us the current "over/under" betting line on this site.
I'm an optimist: Will anyone give me odds on an even smaller vote this year?
Redwood
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But it does tell us the current "over/under" betting line on this site.
I'm an optimist: Will anyone give me odds on an even smaller vote this year?
I'll give 3 to 1 in favor of this year's resolution failing worse than last year's. For one thing, the resolution this year is loaded with Truther nonsense, while a naive person could have voted for last year's, not knowing its context.
For another thing, proximity to New York will probably mean more attendance by New York architects.