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Merged AGW without HADCRUT3

Wangler said:
Why rely on reconstructions?

Did no Vikings write down what they saw in Greenland?
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I am not sure 'And lo, for Eric the Red did see before him fields of green and white that the mighty warrior and his horde conquered for glory' counts as accurate temperature data.

Also, seriously, Vikings, not a literate society.

Why the hell would you choose to label yourself a skeptic then ask for an anecdote from an uneducated Viking over a scientific analysis... unless the purpose was less to find good data and more to find the right result?
 
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'And lo, for Eric the Red did see before him fields of green and white that the mighty warrior and his horde conquered for glory'
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sounds like an early version of the British ads for settlers in the Canadian West :rolleyes:....

Perhaps sticking with the pollen and ice cores is after all wise counsel :garfield:
 
GreyICE said:
I am not sure 'And lo, for Eric the Red did see before him fields of green and white that the mighty warrior and his horde conquered for glory' counts as accurate temperature data.

Also, seriously, Vikings, not a literate society.

Why the hell would you choose to label yourself a skeptic then ask for an anecdote from an uneducated Viking over a scientific analysis... unless the purpose was less to find good data and more to find the right result?
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Hahaha!

Yes, your uneducated prejudices and beliefs based on pseudo science take precedence over tax records, marriage, land deeds from another century.
 
GreyICE said:
I am not sure 'And lo, for Eric the Red did see before him fields of green and white that the mighty warrior and his horde conquered for glory' counts as accurate temperature data.

Also, seriously, Vikings, not a literate society.

Why the hell would you choose to label yourself a skeptic then ask for an anecdote from an uneducated Viking over a scientific analysis... unless the purpose was less to find good data and more to find the right result?
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Well, I am sure that Eric's personal physical scientist Hothgar didn't have a calibrated thermistor or anything, but I just don't see how Greenland could not have been warmer when it was greener.
 
Wangler said:
Well, I am sure that Eric's personal physical scientist Hothgar didn't have a calibrated thermistor or anything, but I just don't see how Greenland could not have been warmer when it was greener.
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It was the gradual shortening of the summers that did them in, as they couldn't get hay crops to support cattle.
 
Wangler said:
Well, I am sure that Eric's personal physical scientist Hothgar didn't have a calibrated thermistor or anything, but I just don't see how Greenland could not have been warmer when it was greener.
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Are you sure that the Vikings described it as greener because it was, well, greener? One does not try to sell land to people on the basis of 'it sucks.' If your evidence is what amounts to advertising slogans, you're not being a skeptic. You're looking for excuses to believe that you're right.
 
Wangler said:
Well, I am sure that Eric's personal physical scientist Hothgar didn't have a calibrated thermistor or anything, but I just don't see how Greenland could not have been warmer when it was greener.
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Think of a warm coastal current. You can have a nice, green, narrow coastline if you have a warm current, meanwhile, inland, conditions are nothing like that.

Later the current shifts and things go to hell rather quickly.
 
The New Scientist link to “Climate change: A guide for the perplexed” was good and makes it difficult for a layperson to chose which scientist is right in the climate debate. I’m still not back in the AGW camp and here’s why I’m still not sure:

Piers Corbyn, MSc (astrophysics), ARCS FRAS FRMetS, WeatherAction Long Range weather & climate forecasters

He has a proven track record of correct extreme weather predictions, months in advance. He doesn’t claim infallibility but he has been correct with 85% success rate for the world and over 90% for USA on land.

This technique has been validated in Independent assessments by the University of Sunderland agreeing his long range forecasts of storms and cold spells are statistically significant with the chance of them being down to luck being only one in a thousand.

He’s been making these extreme weather predictions for years (since 1990)

Here’s part of his latest forecast: “warnings of further extreme winter weather coming in February as we predicted last July and further detailed in mid January. As you now see our Red Warning that 11/12th Feb would have extra snow compared with expectations of standard meteorology** was confirmed by 6inches of snow in parts of Kent - more than double TV forecasts. The danger periods 15-16/17th & 18-19th & 20-21st** Feb are also predicted to bring notably severe and dangerous winter weather which will exceed in severity the expectations of standard meteorology from even a day or so ahead.”

So, how can PC’s Solar Weather Technique (SWT) do this?

Is this not clear, evidenced based, science that the Sun is the main driver in our weather and climate and not us?
 
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Haig said:
Piers Corbyn, MSc (astrophysics), ARCS FRAS FRMetS, WeatherAction Long Range weather & climate forecasters

He has a proven track record of correct extreme weather predictions, months in advance. He doesn’t claim infallibility but he has been correct with 85% success rate for the world and over 90% for USA on land.
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Source for this claim?

This technique has been validated in Independent assessments by the University of Sunderland agreeing his long range forecasts of storms and cold spells are statistically significant with the chance of them being down to luck being only one in a thousand.
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Yawn. Vague forecasts based on climatology will always have a high skill score.

Here’s part of his latest forecast: “warnings of further extreme winter weather coming in February as we predicted last July and further detailed in mid January. As you now see our Red Warning that 11/12th Feb would have extra snow compared with expectations of standard meteorology** was confirmed by 6inches of snow in parts of Kent - more than double TV forecasts. The danger periods 15-16/17th & 18-19th & 20-21st** Feb are also predicted to bring notably severe and dangerous winter weather which will exceed in severity the expectations of standard meteorology from even a day or so ahead.”
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No storm produces the same amount of precipitation everywhere. Some locales will get more and some will get less. Forecasting that some locations will get more snow than the amount in the general regional forecast has a rather high probability of being correct.
 
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TellyKNeasuss said:
Source for this claim?
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Can't post links yet but it was in Science Direct, here's part of it:

A verification of UK gale forecasts by the ‘solar weather technique’: October 1995–September 1997

Dennis Wheeler,
Geography Department, University of Sunderland, Forster Building, Chester Road, Sunderland SR1 3SD, UK
Received 27 September 1999; revised 24 April 2000; accepted 23 June 2000. Available online 29 November 2000.

Abstract
In recent years the ‘solar weather’ technique of weather forecasting which takes into account of the influence of the sun has received much attention. No attempt has hitherto been made to determine the success, or otherwise, of elements of these forecasts, which include solar predictors and are prepared 6–11 months in advance of the events they predict. This paper conducts an evaluation of these forecasts but confines attention to the prediction of gales. Skill levels are assessed over different seasons. The results, whilst differing greatly between the seasons, reveal a degree of success that cannot readily be accounted for by chance and suggest that this system of forecasting continues to be assessed over a longer time period to further investigate these findings.

Author Keywords: Weather forecasting; Forecast assessments; Gales

Article Outline

1. Introduction
2. Review of assessment methods
3. Gale forecasts from weather action
4. Prediction of severe gales
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References

Tel.: 44-191-515-2233; fax: 44-191-515-2105; email: dennis.wheeler@beeb.net

TellyKNeasuss said:
Yawn. Vague forecasts based on climatology will always have a high skill score.
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Actually, he puts out detailed forecasts for a very limited time period (a few days) but months in advance.

TellyKNeasuss said:
It's rather common for some locations to get more and some locations to get less than the general forecast. Forecasting that some locations will get more snow than the amount in the general regional forecast has a rather high probability of being correct.
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As I say, he can detail the time and the place across the world; check out the forecasts on WeatherAction.com

So, is it the Sun and not us causing climate change?
 
Haig said:
Can't post links yet but it was in Science Direct, here's part of it:

A verification of UK gale forecasts by the ‘solar weather technique’: October 1995–September 1997

Dennis Wheeler,
Geography Department, University of Sunderland, Forster Building, Chester Road, Sunderland SR1 3SD, UK
Received 27 September 1999; revised 24 April 2000; accepted 23 June 2000. Available online 29 November 2000.

Abstract
In recent years the ‘solar weather’ technique of weather forecasting which takes into account of the influence of the sun has received much attention. No attempt has hitherto been made to determine the success, or otherwise, of elements of these forecasts, which include solar predictors and are prepared 6–11 months in advance of the events they predict. This paper conducts an evaluation of these forecasts but confines attention to the prediction of gales. Skill levels are assessed over different seasons. The results, whilst differing greatly between the seasons, reveal a degree of success that cannot readily be accounted for by chance and suggest that this system of forecasting continues to be assessed over a longer time period to further investigate these findings.
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I probably can read the paper when I get to work next week. I'm interested in how "chance" was defined, given that anyone can show some forecasting skill by using climatology.

Actually, he puts out detailed forecasts for a very limited time period (a few days) but months in advance.
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I could forecast snow in any random 3-day period during winter in my home state (Colorado) and have a high probability of being correct. And the probability of particular weather events is not evenly distributed throughout a season. I've been told, for example, that there is a higher probability of extreme cold in the western Great Plains in the first 2 weeks of December than for other 2-week periods in winter.

So, is it the Sun and not us causing climate change?
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The Sun causes variability, but it does not necessarily follow from tis that it is causing the trend.

Common sense would lead me to think that if this guy had any real skill, he would be raking in gazillions of dollars from governments, energy companies, investors, and anyone else who could benefit from long-range weather forecasts. At the very least, he'd be famous.
 
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GreyICE said:
Are you sure that the Vikings described it as greener because it was, well, greener? One does not try to sell land to people on the basis of 'it sucks.' If your evidence is what amounts to advertising slogans, you're not being a skeptic. You're looking for excuses to believe that you're right.
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You are, of course, correct.

Instead of advertising slogans to spur emigration, how about some papers?
 
Wangler said:
You are, of course, correct.

Instead of advertising slogans to spur emigration, how about some papers?
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Your links from Frontiers of Freedom (mission statement below) are all dead. I dunno how I'm supposed to analyze dead links. I guess I shall have to go psychically determine what they contain.

I'm going to go out on a ****ing insane limb and say you haven't read them, since you didn't notice they were dead.

Given that, how dare you present them as evidence? You don't even know what's in them. What the hell sort of skepticism is this? You believe dead links from a group with an obvious agenda over anything else? What the ****? What the ****ing ****?


Frontiers of Freedom Institute (“FOF”) was founded in 1994 by U.S. Senator Malcolm Wallop. FOF is an educational institute (or think tank) whose mission is to promote conservative public policy based on the principles of individual freedom, peace through strength, limited government, free enterprise, and traditional American values as found in the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence.
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MHaze
It was the gradual shortening of the summers that did them in, as they couldn't get hay crops to support cattle.
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remarkable, first claim I've seen of variable planetary tilt in a geological eye blink ...:boggled:

but of course you meant growing season :garfield:...
 
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