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Split Thread A second impeachment

Trump has been acquitted. His base is now motivated and solidified with a passion like never before. There will be no Republican party split, there will be primaries for RINOs. Now that it's over, can we focus less on President Trump and move on to healing the Nation now? Remember "unity"? From the outside looking in, it looks like the promise of "unity" is an empty one. I hope I'm wrong, but the seething hatred is difficult to ignore.
It's just a little ironic that you think our left needs to unify with your right on your terms while you're busy kicking out of your own party anyone whose opinions you can't abide. That's not "unity" you're calling for, it's surrender.
 
Maybe in a classic murder case, physical evidence makes the case stronger. Here you have Exhibit A, B and C that you can feel, touch, pick up, examine under a microscope, extract DNA and fingerprints, smell, weigh, see. However, that is not the sole sum of evidence. In a case like Insurrection Against the USA Government by a Sitting President, it is a lot more abstract as leading an insurrection involves proving there was a persuading of minds, inflaming of emotions, whipping up of hysteria, none of which is is tangible. This is why Van der Veen's core argument was, 'Well, for stirring up an insurrection, you have to look at the words used, which led on nicely to his other key argument, the First Amendment, the right to free speech, which he argued quite well as being of essential for a politician at the highest levels in order to express political concepts, whatever they may be.

His error was focussing solely on the speech Trump made at the Ellipse before and during the mob march down Pennsylvannia Avenue. Trump very cannily included the word 'peacefully' - well, he could hardly say, 'violently' - and his whole case hinged around that. In addition, Trump was not physically there at the Capitol Riots. Unlike Wat Tyler of the fourteen century, leading his angry mob of peasants over London Bridge after marching all the way from Canterbury, incensed by the newly imposed Poll Tax, to confront the king, 14-year-old Richard II, where they met face to face at Smithfield. (Tyler met a sorry end, when Richard's men killed him.) Quite likely, Trump intended to 'walk' with them but was forcibly prevented by his bodyguards for fear of his assassination.

So, how do you prove 'insurrection' beyond a reasonable doubt if the perpetrator wasn't actually at the scene of the action? Well, we look at something that is extremely important in criminal law/impeachment law: we look closely at the chronology of events, and the House Managers did this superbly and should not be downhearted at the defeat. Trump had planted the claim of a 'rigged election' during the six months previously. This he did as tactically and as strategically as any army general.

He built up a hardcore of 'troops' made up the most radicalised, violent, psychopathic, baying thugs, hiding behind 'patriotism' as an excuse for thuggery. The prosecution showed an exchange of social media message between Kremer, an organiser for his rally, in which she agreed to change the date of a rally earmarked 20/21 Jan 2021 to 6 Jan 2021 timed to take place 11:00 - circa 13:00, when the certification of the election was due to take place at Capitol Hill - saying 'I am bringing the Calvary' [sic], to which Trump retweeted with the words, I am greatly honored.

Van der Veen made the ludicrous claim that when there is a murder, it doesn't matter what the murderer does afterwards, to rebut the hard physical evidence in the form of a phone log between Trump and Turbeville that Trump knew Pence and his family were in immediate danger, yet still (a) failed to do anything at all to stop the riots as Commander-in-Chief with the National Guard at his disposal, and (b) continued to bear pressure on a Senator to prevent the certification.

So, was that enough to convict, given there is never going to be 'hard evidence' for an abstract concept of insurrection, especially if the supposed leader is not even there at the scene of the uprising? IMV the case was proven beyond a reasonable doubt. What Trump did - or failed to do - after his speech of 6th Jan 2021 was just as important as what he did before. The chronology is very clear and sound legally acceptable evidence.

Reasonable doubt is not the standard in an impeachment trial (which is not a criminal trial). You're asking the wrong question.
 
One way to look at it is that he lost the popular vote yet again.
 
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You can say what you want about McConnell, but he's not stupid. In order for what you say to be true he'd have to believe he could control Trump, that he could control the DOJ, and he could trust Trump to keep his word in 3 years' time. And in order to believe those things he'd have to be stupid.
Is Moscow Mitch really that smart?

Ok, I think its pretty much a given that McConnell is smarter than Trump. But, that's a pretty low bar to set. And yes, he managed to wreck havoc on congress, got Drunky McRapeface and the Stepford Wife on the supreme court, and got his tax cuts for millionaires passed.

But it didn't really take that much "intelligence" to do a lot of that stuff... just a willingness to say "no" over an over again when Obama was president. And after 4 years of Stubby McBonespurs (where the republicans had a lock on congress for 2 of those), where is the GOP now?
- They lost the white house, when usually a party that holds it will win re-election at least once.
- They lost congress, and while the GOP might win back the house in 2022, the senate roadmap is less promising to the republicans and they could lose ground there.
- The republicans failed to capitalize on their power early in Trump's term to pass more legislation.
- The republicans now have to deal with potential divisions, a shrinking voter base, and an ex-president who maintains significant power and is willing to blow things up if he doesn't get his way.

Granted, McConnell wasn't the cause of a lot of that. But he also failed to adapt to changes in the political landscape.

If he was smart, he would have had the senate convict Trump in his first impeachment... Granted, it would have cost them in the 2020 election, but they wouldn't necessarily been any worse off than they are now, they would have been rid of Trump, and they would have had a better base to build off of in future elections.
 
I mean, the evidence that he's guilty is overwhelming.

And in some ways, I agree that this wasn't constitutional. Impeachment is about removal from office.
Its already been mentioned before, but in case you didn't notice...

Impeachment isn't JUST about removing people from office. There are punishments available that go beyond that (most importantly, baring Trump from holding office in the future.)

So impeachment is completely constitutional.
So... Is an aquittal here actually for the best? If Trump had been found guilty, could it have been said that he had been punished enough? And now, found not guilty by the legislative branch, is it time to give the judicial branch a go?
Actually the more likely scenario isn't "The senate didn't convict, so now he is more likely to face criminal conviction". The more likely scenario is that the defense in any legal case will point to the failure to convict in the senate and say "How can he be guilty of this crime when he was cleared by the senate?"
 
And I think a lot of the features of the Europoean Palrimantrian System are warped...

Perhaps. But it seems to be good at avoiding T**** types gaining significant power. (Except perhaps in Italy, but Italy is ... Italy).

Hans
 
The Turtle's speech was to Trump, not the public.

He basically said "I got your sorrow son-of-a-bitch POS ass off the hook on a technicality when we all know you are guilty as ****. So your sorrow son-of-a-bitch POS ass now belongs to ME! So shut the **** up, find another ******* career, never run for politics again, and get back in your ******* hole where you belong.
If Moscow Mitch actually thought that, then he is an idiot.

Trump has never shown any sort of loyalty or gratitude to anyone, and he is unlikely to change his ways. Trump will not have listened to McConnell's speech and say "I dodged a bullet there thanks thanks to McConnell... I should keep out of the spotlight". In fact, just the opposite... he is likely to feel even more emboldened, with the knowledge that he holds enough power to bend the majority of Republican congress-critters to his will. And Moscow Mitch might be a potential target... because despite the fact that he helped enable Trump's terrorism, he also said something that was not completely flattering.

Or there will be criminal prosecutions which I can't stop."
Which of course would be completely irrelevant. Politicians are generally forbidden from interfering in criminal prosecutions, and as a politician in the minority party, he'd have even less influence.

So Moscow Mitch couldn't stop Trump from being prosecuted even if he wanted to.
 
Perhaps. But it seems to be good at avoiding T**** types gaining significant power. (Except perhaps in Italy, but Italy is ... Italy).

Hans

Italy has a history of prosecuting their leaders and putting them behind bars if they commit crimes, something the USA has never done.
 
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Italy has a history of prosecuting their leaders and putting them behind bars if they commit crimes, something the USA has never done.

Yes, but this was about avoiding T**** types. Case in mind, Berlusconi. But even he was not as bad as T****. He may end up behind bars, but he still did get power.

Hans
 
Italy has a history of prosecuting their leaders and putting them behind bars if they commit crimes, something the USA has never done.

Er, perhaps Italy is not a good example. It got Andreotti and Berlusconi off on a loophole on appeal of their convictions, under a paragraph, 'insufficient evidence' which had originally been the reasoning in cases involving organised political groups who had planted bombs in various places, the argument being the court had not established who in particular planted the bombs. Berlusconi was later found to have lied at his appeal.


So no, don't look to Italy!


I suppose Mussolini got a different kind of just desserts.
 
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... So, was that enough to convict, given there is never going to be 'hard evidence' for an abstract concept of insurrection, especially if the supposed leader is not even there at the scene of the uprising? IMV the case was proven beyond a reasonable doubt. What Trump did - or failed to do - after his speech of 6th Jan 2021 was just as important as what he did before. The chronology is very clear and sound legally acceptable evidence.
Of course it was and some people, including reporters asking questions at the House Managers' press conference, want to put this on the prosecution not doing enough. They proved the case and the news media should be reporting that they did. FFS McConnell in a long boring speech excusing his despicable vote agreed.

The only thing they could have done more of was shame the GOP Senators turning a blind eye. Maybe they should have just outright offended the worst of them showing how they were complicit. They could have pointed out Pence is hiding his shame, refusing to speak out against Trump to this day.

Maybe the Democrats and the Lincoln Project will still do that. Pence must be going through brain-damaging cognitive dissonance right now.
 
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The Republican's argument that it is unconstitutional is absurd on every level. It is more a straw to grasp upon than anything else.

1. The Constitution doesn't say that former Presidents couldn't be impeached or tried, or that any former official couldn't be impeached.
2. The Founders never said that former Presidents couldn't be impeached either.
3. In fact John Quincy Adams stated that he could be impeached long after he was President.
4. Blount and Belknap were impeached after they left office.
5. The founders considered impeachment as a tool not only to remove derelict public officials but to stain them.

Finally,

6. The Senate themselves voted that it was Constitutional and then conducted the trial. If SCOTUS rules that something is Constitutional in a 5 to 4 ruling, it is Constitutional. The same is true for the US Senate when it applies to trying public officials.

As a body, the Senate said it was fine. By then voting against the facts because one does not agree with the rules the Senate has passed is the GOP again spitting on the process.
 
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Is Moscow Mitch really that smart?

Ok, I think its pretty much a given that McConnell is smarter than Trump. But, that's a pretty low bar to set. And yes, he managed to wreck havoc on congress, got Drunky McRapeface and the Stepford Wife on the supreme court, and got his tax cuts for millionaires passed.

But it didn't really take that much "intelligence" to do a lot of that stuff... just a willingness to say "no" over an over again when Obama was president. And after 4 years of Stubby McBonespurs (where the republicans had a lock on congress for 2 of those), where is the GOP now?
- They lost the white house, when usually a party that holds it will win re-election at least once.
- They lost congress, and while the GOP might win back the house in 2022, the senate roadmap is less promising to the republicans and they could lose ground there.
- The republicans failed to capitalize on their power early in Trump's term to pass more legislation.
- The republicans now have to deal with potential divisions, a shrinking voter base, and an ex-president who maintains significant power and is willing to blow things up if he doesn't get his way.

Granted, McConnell wasn't the cause of a lot of that. But he also failed to adapt to changes in the political landscape.

If he was smart, he would have had the senate convict Trump in his first impeachment... Granted, it would have cost them in the 2020 election, but they wouldn't necessarily been any worse off than they are now, they would have been rid of Trump, and they would have had a better base to build off of in future elections.
I couldn't agree more. He's most notable for inaction, which is usually enough. It creates an illusion of cunning. When he has to do something he does two things which cancel, such as his vote and his later speech. He's floundering.
 
Will you bother with an election, or has he already decided he's won it?

By a landslide.

Bigger than any other candidate in history.

Hans

Well, you know...75 million voters can't be wrong- they can be outvoted (by around 7 million more), but who cares about that? (I do love the stretchy "75 million" thing- only Trump and Trumpers could misunderstand "rounding off" just over 74.1 million that badly)

ETA- please, please, let Trump make a serious run in 2024. I could run as a Democrat and beat a Republican party split between the mulish folks wearing Trump blinders and "RINOs."
 
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Is Moscow Mitch really that smart?

Ok, I think its pretty much a given that McConnell is smarter than Trump. But, that's a pretty low bar to set. And yes, he managed to wreck havoc on congress, got Drunky McRapeface and the Stepford Wife on the supreme court, and got his tax cuts for millionaires passed.

That's pretty much what he wanted to begin with. The problem is that he's in an untenable position in the long-term. The GOP base has been fed on conspiracy nonsense (how long ago was the Clinton murder list, or the War on Christmas?) and hatred of the other (Bogative's avatar is a classic example of racism via the Jezebel stereotype - pure slave rape apologism carried up to the current year- and folks like Limbaugh and D'Souza have trafficked in similar junk for decades, never mind Reagan's anti-gay hatred that allowed the HIV pandemic to flourish while he smiled about it), while the elites work to funnel more money to themselves.

Toupee Fiasco just cut through all that and spewed unvarnished white nationalism, starting with birtherism back in 2011. And now the base isn't really satisfied with anything less. McConnell's trying to persuade the folks that thought the GOP was really about "small government" or "good business", but there's just no way to hide the "we hate ******* and queers" faction. But really, this all set up before Moscow Mitch rose to leadership - again, this was set in the Goldwater-Reagan era, and solidified at most a decade ago.

ETA: Gingrich's scorched earth strategy had it's own role to play, of course, but the overall descent to neo-fascism and conspiracy theory wasn't him.
 
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