They will get the 51 votes, if it's in the senate later, not now. Possibly Romney and a couple more. But they would need 17 republicans to permanently ban him from office.
I would not rule this out, the math is very different this time than in the 2020 Impeachment.
So first, the idea that a second Impeachment will make Trump and Trumpist more popular is silly. This is a holdover from Clinton gaining popularity when he was Impeached, but the circumstances were entirely different.
Most of the US felt that the Whitewater investigation had turned into a witchhunt for the Clintons to get them on anything that Republicans could, They felt that the charges were minimal, had nothing to do with Clinton's running of the office, and frankly were none of the nation's business as to if he cheated on his wife or not. On top of that Clinton worked his butt off for the country while he was being impeached, he didn't whine and try and stop or delay it, he let the process happen and for the most part, at least publically, ignored it. This is why Clinton's popularity increased (though at the same time his numbers for honesty and integrity plunged).
This is a far cry from what Trump did in 2020, and the stats show it. According to 538, on Dec 17th, the day before the Impeachment was initiated, he had an average approval rating of 43.8%. On Feb 6th, the day after the Senate declared "Not Guilty", his average approval rating on 538 was 43.9%. Even if we waited a week for the news to filter through to the polls his average approval rating was actually down to 43.3%. There was a spike two weeks after where it bounced up to 44.3% for about three days before returning to 43.3%.
Now yes, his approval rating increased in the days before the start of the Impeachment vote, going from 41.8% to 43.3%, between the 13th and 16th, and then it fell again during the start of the Impeachment, dropping to a low of 41.8% on Jan 11th, before recovering back to the 43.9% by the end. It's not a lot of movement outside of his normal ups and downs.
The other thing to remember is that even though Clinton got more popular over his Impeachment, it wasn't a huge amount, 2-3% at most, and he was already wildly popular at the time with a +60% approval rating even before Impeachement.
Okay so now that we have dealt a death knell to the whole stupid, "It'll just make him more popular" claim, let's look at the "It'll end up the same way as last time" claims.
Again, the match is totally different this time.
In early 2020 Republicans were looking at a President who was wildly popular with Republic voters and they were fast coming into the primaries for the Presidential Election. They were being asked to not only remove what most of them considered to be their best chance of winning the 2020 Presidential Election, but also to put themselves in danger of reaping the anger whirlwind created by such a removal right at the time Primaries were about to be voted on, and their actions would have been fore-front if their voters' minds.
These are pretty major reasons to vote no to impeachment and Not Guilty to the Impeachment charges.
Now consider the math for the 2021 Impeachment. The election is passed, members of the House have over a year before they need to start campaigning again, senators have up to 6 years, and a number of the Republican Senators up to vote in 2024 are in what appears to be going to be hotly contested seats with Democrat advantage. That means they need to appeal to the centrists to retain their seats, not the alt-right. Also, they won't be voting to expel a President from office, but rather to determine if he can hold office again. Politically it would be beneficial to a number of them who might be considering a 2024 run to have Trump off the board. Finally, we see that a number of the top Republicans, such as Moscow Mitch and Graham, who were the ones leading the charge to acquit Trump in 2020, have publically broken with the President over a number of topics of late. They clearly are believing that his power and the power of his supporters is waning to the point that they can directly go against his wishes, and even call him and his supporters out.
So, when you put these factors together, no reasons not to find guilty, plenty of reasons to do so, and also that a number of Republican Congress Critters are absolutely livid over the insurrection and invasion of the Capitol, writing off any Impeachment attempt as doomed to fail from the start, is not actually a guarantee. I suspect that Republicans will be a lot more willing to do so because doing so will probably be better for their political careers than not doing so.
