A beautiful argument for naturalism from Michael Shermer

[I less than three logic]

Good. Please predict flip 1 and flip 500,000,001 (correctly, that is).

What would that prove? He could just guess with a 1 in 4 chance of being correct. Flip 1 and flip 500,000,001 isn't any different than picking flip 1 and flip 2, unless you meant 1 through 500,000,001.

 

[hammegk]

What would that prove?

No more or less than arguments assuming naturalism True prove it to be so.

 

[Foster Zygote]

No more or less than arguments assuming naturalism True prove it to be so.

If I had a casino I'd give you free drinks for life.

Steven

 

[hammegk]

Some games ... Life for example ... the house always wins.

 

[KingMerv00]

Good. Please predict flip 1 and flip 500,000,001 (correctly, that is).

I never said I could predict a single flip of a coin, I was addressing the idea that there can only be randomness or determinism. I don't agree. Randomness can generate predictability.

 

[Foster Zygote]

Some games ... Life for example ... the house always wins.

Yes, the house always wins because of the players' poor concept of probability.

Steven

 

[Foster Zygote]

I never said I could predict a single flip of a coin, I was addressing the idea that there can only be randomness or determinism. I don't agree. Randomness can generate predictability.

Randomness generates predictability generates Las Vegas.

Steven

 

[I less than three logic]

Yes, the house always wins because of the players' poor concept of probability.

Steven

If you do have a solid understanding of probability, does life through you out for cheating if you exploit that knowledge?