DC
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Here's the 2005 paper this is based on -
Environmental Refugees: an emergent security issue
Note that it states that the last assessment, in 1995, already calculated an estimated 25 million climate refugees -
As far back as 1995 (latest date for a comprehensive assessment), these
environmental refugees totalled at least 25 million people, compared with 27 million
traditional refugees (people fleeing political oppression, religious persecution and
ethnic troubles). The environmental refugees total could well double between 1995
and 2010
It was not a "global warming" paper other than to state that it will get worse when it's effect become apparent.
Reading the paper, I'd say the OP is wrong. The prediction has almost certainly come true.
Tanks, very informative.