3 year old boy missing for 3 days in outback found alive.

[lionking]

It’s not just me.

https://www.news.com.au/national/ns...k/news-story/de7b1f9640bf68899390fd30c43503b2

The police investigation is continuing, with some senior detectives in the NSW Police Force saying there are a lot of things that don’t add up including claims of missing CCTV footage from the family property in Putty, about 75km south of Singleton, in the NSW Hunter Valley

Investigators are still trying to figure out how the three-year-old could have survived without anything to eat for 72 hours in temperatures that dropped to 2C – emerging with just a few scratches from three nights alone in the brutal terrain.

Another mystery is how AJ turned up in a creek just 500m away from the family’s home – meaning he evaded highly trained sniffer dogs since Friday as well as a helicopter fitted with infra-red technology and hundreds of searchers making their way through the nearby bush

 

[Checkmite]

I'm not convinced.

Different sources seem to be all over the place when it comes to how long a person can survive without water and food, but they are fairly consistent in one way - if a person at least has access to water, the amount of time they can survive without food is quite substantial, with the most conservative estimates I can easily find managing to settle around one month.

Such estimates are made for an average adult human of course; but even if we were to slash those numbers by say 75% to compensate for the child's age, three days without food is still not life-threatening. Particularly if the boy had a reasonably good breakfast on the day he went missing.

It still leaves the cold temperatures - but, again, it doesn't seem to have been that cold every night (Sunday night/Monday morning was as cold as reported, but it seems the previous nights' lows were closer to ~10C), and - again - he was wearing at least a hooded sweater; so I'm sure he was quite miserable but I don't think the presumption that he should be dead is warranted, or scientifically informed.

ETA: curious to me how it's being framed as incredible that a very small child who was non-verbal could have evaded a large search party and helicopters with IR cameras, but the same very small child accompanied by an adult, potentially using a conspicuous vehicle at times, evading all of those things seems to be reasonably possible...?

 

[angrysoba]

I'm not convinced.

Different sources seem to be all over the place when it comes to how long a person can survive without water and food, but they are fairly consistent in one way - if a person at least has access to water, the amount of time they can survive without food is quite substantial, with the most conservative estimates I can easily find managing to settle around one month.

Such estimates are made for an average adult human of course; but even if we were to slash those numbers by say 75% to compensate for the child's age, three days without food is still not life-threatening. Particularly if the boy had a reasonably good breakfast on the day he went missing.

It still leaves the cold temperatures - but, again, it doesn't seem to have been that cold every night (Sunday night/Monday morning was as cold as reported, but it seems the previous nights' lows were closer to ~10C), and - again - he was wearing at least a hooded sweater; so I'm sure he was quite miserable but I don't think the presumption that he should be dead is warranted, or scientifically informed.

ETA: curious to me how it's being framed as incredible that a very small child who was non-verbal could have evaded a large search party and helicopters with IR cameras, but the same very small child accompanied by an adult, potentially using a conspicuous vehicle at times, evading all of those things seems to be reasonably possible...?

Yeah, that's what I was highlighting before. If we assume the child was taken away and then returned, then it becomes more difficult to figure out how that happened.

But more than that, I have posted two examples of a 3 year old child being missing for 3 days and being found about a mile or a kilometre from home. It's not even that unusual.

 

[angrysoba]

It’s not just me.

https://www.news.com.au/national/ns...k/news-story/de7b1f9640bf68899390fd30c43503b2

Could you please address the highlighted?

As I said before, I’m happy to be proven wrong here. But I remain suspicious. I have had a lot of experience with 3 year olds and if there is no further investigation, fair enough. But I’ll bet there is more to this. The sighting of the ute and the missing CCTV footage are more than curious.

But happy to be proven wrong. I just don’t believe I have been yet.

You have said it was relevant but I don't understand what the relevance is.

 

[lionking]

I'm not convinced.

Different sources seem to be all over the place when it comes to how long a person can survive without water and food, but they are fairly consistent in one way - if a person at least has access to water, the amount of time they can survive without food is quite substantial, with the most conservative estimates I can easily find managing to settle around one month.

Such estimates are made for an average adult human of course; but even if we were to slash those numbers by say 75% to compensate for the child's age, three days without food is still not life-threatening. Particularly if the boy had a reasonably good breakfast on the day he went missing.

It still leaves the cold temperatures - but, again, it doesn't seem to have been that cold every night (Sunday night/Monday morning was as cold as reported, but it seems the previous nights' lows were closer to ~10C), and - again - he was wearing at least a hooded sweater; so I'm sure he was quite miserable but I don't think the presumption that he should be dead is warranted, or scientifically informed.

ETA: curious to me how it's being framed as incredible that a very small child who was non-verbal could have evaded a large search party and helicopters with IR cameras, but the same very small child accompanied by an adult, potentially using a conspicuous vehicle at times, evading all of those things seems to be reasonably possible...?

To your ETA, if he was abducted soon after he left home, or if he was taken from his home, it was before the search parties started. It is a large farm, and it’s not at all unimaginable that he could have been placed back in the bush after dark.

Anyway, the police aren’t continuing the investigation for no reason.

 

[casebro]

Was he found nearer a road?

 

[lionking]

Was he found nearer a road?

On a farm, in a shallow creek.

 

[angrysoba]

On a farm, in a shallow creek.

I hate to sound like a broken record but could you tell me the relevance of your experience with three year olds.

 

[lionking]

I hate to sound like a broken record but could you tell me the relevance of your experience with three year olds.

You can give it the relevance you want. To me though, I think that spending hundreds if not thousands of hours with 3 year old children (I have 7 children and 7 grandchildren so far) gives me insight into the behaviours and vulnerability of young children that those who haven’t spent time with young children wouldn’t have. I learnt very early, for example, that infants need to kept warm even in summer and that they can lose body heat very quickly. That sort of thing.

That you might not accept this is of no matter to me.

 

[smartcooky]

You can give it the relevance you want. To me though, I think that spending hundreds if not thousands of hours with 3 year old children (I have 7 children and 7 grandchildren so far) gives me insight into the behaviours and vulnerability of young children that those who haven’t spent time with young children wouldn’t have. I learnt very early, for example, that infants need to kept warm even in summer and that they can lose body heat very quickly. That sort of thing.

That you might not accept this is of no matter to me.

Are any of them autistic?

 

[lionking]

Are any of them autistic?

No, but I’m not sure that makes much of a difference.

Anyway, nobody is commenting on the current interest of police on some of the issues I raised in the OP, like AJ being found only 500 meters away from the house and the child evading police with the latest infrared detectors and hundreds of searchers. And others that I didn’t raise, like how unscathed he seemed to be after three days of rough terrain and freezing nights.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

No, but I’m not sure that makes much of a difference.

Anyway, nobody is commenting on the current interest of police on some of the issues I raised in the OP, like AJ being found only 500 meters away from the house and the child evading police with the latest infrared detectors and hundreds of searchers. And others that I didn’t raise, like how unscathed he seemed to be after three days of rough terrain and freezing nights.

Are you saying it freezes at night in Oz? It's not even winter there.

I see no reason a 3 yr old could not survive 3 nights outside with no adult help. What is supposed to be fatal? Hypothermia? No, not in Oz in the springtime. Dehydration? The kid was sitting in a creek drinking water. Lack of food? After 3 days it wouldn't be fatal.

 

[smartcooky]

To your ETA, if he was abducted soon after he left home, or if he was taken from his home, it was before the search parties started. It is a large farm, and it’s not at all unimaginable that he could have been placed back in the bush after dark.

This is pure, wild speculation. There is no evidence (yet) of this taking place. The only evidence of anything is that he went missing, and then was found alive three days later not far from where he went missing.

This is unusual but it is not mind-bogglingly amazing and certainly not unprecedented. Sadly, you only have know a little about the African famines (Ethiopia, Niger, Sudan Horn of Africa et al) to understand that a child of that age can suffer for weeks without food before they die of starvation, so long as they have drinkable water.

There is rule of thumb called "The Survival Rule of Threes"

You can survive...
• Three weeks without food.
• Three days without drinkable water.
• Three hours in extreme heat or cold conditions (0 to 10°C is not extreme).
• Three minutes without breathable air

Anyway, the police aren’t continuing the investigation for no reason.

There is this thing called "due diligence"

 

[arthwollipot]

Are you saying it freezes at night in Oz? It's not even winter there.

Only just. Winter ended exactly a week ago, and it's still pretty cold. And yes, it definitely goes below freezing in Australia. I get negative temperatures overnight for weeks at a time during midwinter. Not all of Australia is hot. The Hunter Valley is not tropical.

 

[angrysoba]

You can give it the relevance you want.

You were the one who claimed it was relevant.

To me though, I think that spending hundreds if not thousands of hours with 3 year old children (I have 7 children and 7 grandchildren so far) gives me insight into the behaviours and vulnerability of young children that those who haven’t spent time with young children wouldn’t have. I learnt very early, for example, that infants need to kept warm even in summer and that they can lose body heat very quickly. That sort of thing.

I think there is a big gap between the way that caring parents raise their children and the limit of a child's endurance. The fact that you obviously would not want your children wandering unaccompanied in the bush for three days does not automatically mean that they would die if they did.

My son is now six years old and of course if he went missing for three days in the wilderness at the age of 3 (or even at the age of six) I would fear the worst. But that is different from saying that a child cannot live for that long.

What do you say about the examples from Ontario and North Carolina of children in pretty much the same situations surviving?

That you might not accept this is of no matter to me.

Why not just discuss the evidence rather than put up this kind of hostile front?

 

[angrysoba]

As for the continuing police investigation, given that they have seized a ute and a friend of the family is claiming that video has gone missing, they obviously want to tie up those loose ends.

What does it mean more than that? Who knows!

 

[lionking]

As for the continuing police investigation, given that they have seized a ute and a friend of the family is claiming that video has gone missing, they obviously want to tie up those loose ends.

What does it mean more than that? Who knows!

Did you read the report where police were said to be dubious of aspects of the story, including that he was relatively unscathed after three days in the bush? I quoted it.

I think they are looking into all aspects of the incident.

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

Are any of them autistic?

And how many did he leave stranded in the outback for periods of days?

 

[angrysoba]

Did you read the report where police were said to be dubious of aspects of the story, including that he was relatively unscathed after three days in the bush? I quoted it.

I think they are looking into all aspects of the incident.

I think they might not really be that interested, actually.

I just had a look at the latest news on this and came across a Daily Mail article. Not a great news source usually, but it is something of a Daily Mail story, so... why not..

Superintendent Tracey Chapman said on Tuesday morning that the presence of wombat holes and water helped increase AJ's chances of survival.
When asked about the speculation surrounding the disappearance, she said: 'We are certainly happy with where things are at the moment.
'We'll continue that investigation to be entirely comfortable, but from our perspective it's simply a good- news story.

'We have a three-year-old boy who many people probably expected was not alive and he's been located and been returned to his family.'

It sounds as though the police are assuming he was out in the bush the whole time, then. The follow-up investigation looks more precautionary than anything else.

It sounds more like the family think there is something up rather than the police:

A relative, who said he lived at the home with the Elfalaks, said the family was performing 'their own investigation'.

'We'd like to think the police are still investigating, but they're not here are they,' the man said.

There was a professional bush tracker involved, and while he says he is "keeping an open mind" he also says he finds it perfectly plausible that the kid wandered off and was just missed by the search parties:

The expert tracker said he planned to venture out with his search party and explore the area, looking for any potential paths AJ might have taken.

AJ was found sitting in a shallow, muddy creek, the entrance to which is so steep that even adults would struggle to clamber down.

Daily Mail Australia photographs taken from the base of the creek show the uneven, rocky terrain leading down to the water.

There is what appears to be a barely visible path at the entrance, but it remains unclear how the young child was able to make it down safely.

...Mr Cassar explained it was very possible that, even with hundreds of volunteers searching for him, that AJ avoided detection while in the bush.

He said search parties tended to stay in straight lines and follow a near perfect trajectory from point A to point B, whereas somebody who is lost intuitively does the opposite.

'When we're lost, we almost always walk at a slight curve to the right or left, therefore it's easy to travel in directions that might be missed by search parties,' Mr Cassar said.

Link

 

[smartcooky]

I think they might not really be that interested, actually.

It sounds as though the police are assuming he was out in the bush the whole time, then. The follow-up investigation looks more precautionary than anything else.

As I said earlier, the cops are doing their due diligence.